Ok, lets talk about AJ

[ggbman]

Ok, so i got pretty flamed for a posting hand where i cold called a raise with AJ earlier. I was giving it some thought, and i want to really here some stats about this hand. Let me start off by saying that my sample size is way too small to be meaningful, because my PT was deleted. Bicycle Kick made a comment about calling raises with AJ being a common mistake low limit players make. Here's the thing. My VPIP with this hand is 97% at the 15-30 games. Yes i know, 97%. You all think i'm a nuts fish. But, over the last 250 times i'm winning about .4BB/hand. I'm sure some people make quite a bit more in terms of how much on a per hand basis, but i think winning that much per hand while playing it 97% of the times shows that some people either undervalue it or don't play it in such a matter that they ever get better hands to fold. I know the sample size is small, but i wanted to start a discussion about this, and if people like i am willing to post Screen Shots later and keep you all updated on my statistics with this hand. By the way this is only AJo, it doesn't include AJ suited. Do these figures surprise anyone? Does everyone still hold to the assertion that this hand should be folded raises most of the time. Looking forward to the slaughter...

Gabe

[elmo]

97% vomit. 250 hands is not enough for accurate stats, since most times you will be correctly playing the hand. Run a filter for hands where you cold-called AJ and let us know how thats been going.

[Dreamer]

AJ is one of those hands that can be a good money winner over the long term but its what I call an opponent dependant hand.
With AK you don`t mind coming in against most players but with AJ you obviously run into problems against better players.
Saying that if you opponent plays any ace then its a good hand as you will have them dominated far more than they dominate you.
Also with AJ check to see if you are making a lot of your profit when you hit the broadway straight or two pair.

Its the perfect "gap" hand where you don`t mind making a raise first in but you don`t want to be calling too many raises unless you are against a maniac who raises a lot of hands that you are ahead of.

I would say the hands AT, AJ, KJ and QJ are the hands that get people in the most trouble at higher levels.

D.

[ggbman]

I don't want this thread to pertain to the other thread, it's irrelevant what the results are from cold calling. However, if you want to tell me how to run that filter on PT, i will do it and post the stats. What i'm saying is this: I place way more value on the hand then convential wisdom would find appropriate. I want someone with a huge database to tell me, "My VPIP with this hand is x%, and i am winning xBB/hand with it and factored together, these results are significant better then yours." Also, please DO NOT POST ABOUT SAMPLE SIZE. I know my sample is way too small which is why in the thread i said, "My sample size is too small to matter." I'm not trying to sell anyone on this tonight, i'm merely trying to get some numbers to get alongside mine which i will continue to track to see if there is any merit to what i'm saying.

[Steve Giufre]

It's really not worth debating. He's LAG preflop then three bet, if hes not then fold. If you dont have any player info then fold. Your stats are completely meaningless because you dont have enough, and they include the times you open raised from LP and other more profitable spots.

[ggbman]

Jesus someone some post stats instead of saying there is nothing to talk about. What i'm asking for is simple. Someone show my a VPIP with a winrate that has an overlay over my statistcis which include me "overplaying" the hand including the times im cold-calling and playing it in early position, so someone show me stats that say this is hurting me.

[Steve Giufre]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't want this thread to pertain to the other thread, it's irrelevant what the results are from cold calling. However, if you want to tell me how to run that filter on PT, i will do it and post the stats. What i'm saying is this: I place way more value on the hand then convential wisdom would find appropriate. I want someone with a huge database to tell me, "My VPIP with this hand is x%, and i am winning xBB/hand with it and factored together, these results are significant better then yours." Also, please DO NOT POST ABOUT SAMPLE SIZE. I know my sample is way too small which is why in the thread i said, "My sample size is too small to matter." I'm not trying to sell anyone on this tonight, i'm merely trying to get some numbers to get alongside mine which i will continue to track to see if there is any merit to what i'm saying.

[/ QUOTE ]

Fine but you have to realize when you post stats that include both the times that you cold called a mid position raise and the times when you open raised the button, you are gonna get your nuts busted a little bit. All the situations that could come up with that hand are so different its tough to say I am winning X amount of dollars with AJ and draw any meaningful conclutions. Also without player information, its pretty tough for anybody to say when you should or shouldnt enter the pot with a raise in front of you.

[surfdoc]

Why plead for someone else to post stats that you have not yet posted. Filter your stats for times when you coldcalled and then you can restate your argument.

[BradL]

[ QUOTE ]
Also without player information, its pretty tough for anybody to say when you should or shouldnt enter the pot with a raise in front of you.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think you would be hard-pressed to identify many times where it is correct to enter the pot with a coldcall regardless of player descriptions.

-Brad

[ggbman]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I don't want this thread to pertain to the other thread, it's irrelevant what the results are from cold calling. However, if you want to tell me how to run that filter on PT, i will do it and post the stats. What i'm saying is this: I place way more value on the hand then convential wisdom would find appropriate. I want someone with a huge database to tell me, "My VPIP with this hand is x%, and i am winning xBB/hand with it and factored together, these results are significant better then yours." Also, please DO NOT POST ABOUT SAMPLE SIZE. I know my sample is way too small which is why in the thread i said, "My sample size is too small to matter." I'm not trying to sell anyone on this tonight, i'm merely trying to get some numbers to get alongside mine which i will continue to track to see if there is any merit to what i'm saying.

[/ QUOTE ]

Fine but you have to realize when you post stats that include both the times that you cold called a mid position raise and the times when you open raised the button, you are gonna get your nuts busted a little bit. All the situations that could come up with that hand are so different its tough to say I am winning X amount of dollars with AJ and draw any meaningful conclutions. Also without player information, its pretty tough for anybody to say when you should or shouldnt enter the pot with a raise in front of you.

[/ QUOTE ]

You make some valid points, BUT once the sample size becomes sufficient enough, i could conlude that the overlay i have by playing the hand so often, even if my bb/hand is a little less than other peoples, means i am making for money with the hand. The opposite could also be true. Heck i hope it is so that i can change something about my game and make money. But please people, stop going on your pre-conceptions, post some stats, and lets do some analysis here.