is calling this down justified?

[djr]

Two questions:
1) should I call on 4th street? There's someone with a made hi (seat 2's jacks) although I have one of the jacks so he's not very live. Also, several people could have 4 to a low. If it had been raised I would have folded easily, but is it worth it take one off?

2) I don't see a problem with calling on 5th street (should I?) but when I miss on 6th...there are only two hearts that are dead, so 7 in 26 unseen cards, nearly 2.5:1 to hit the flush. Reasonable call?

I'm more worried about the 4th street play than 6th street, but advice/comments on either is helpful.

7 Card Stud High-Low ($0.5/$1), Ante $0.25, Bring-In $0.25 (hand converter)

3rd Street

Seat 1: xx xx A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___calls
Seat 2: xx xx J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___calls
Seat 3: xx xx 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___calls
Seat 5: xx xx T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___calls
Seat 6: xx xx 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___calls
Hero: J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___brings-in
Seat 8: xx xx 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___calls

4th Street

Seat 1: xx xx A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___calls
Seat 2: xx xx J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___bets
Seat 3: xx xx 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___calls
Seat 5: xx xx T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___folds
Seat 6: xx xx 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___calls
Hero: J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___calls
Seat 8: xx xx 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___calls

5th Street

Seat 1: xx xx A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___calls
Seat 2: xx xx J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___bets
Seat 3: xx xx 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___calls
Seat 6: xx xx 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___calls
Hero: J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___calls
Seat 8: xx xx 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___calls

6th Street

Seat 1: xx xx A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___calls
Seat 2: xx xx J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___checks___calls
Seat 3: xx xx 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___checks___folds
Seat 6: xx xx 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___bets
Hero: J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___calls
Seat 8: xx xx 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___folds

River

Seat 1: xx xx A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] xx___calls
Seat 2: xx xx J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] xx___checks___calls
Seat 6: xx xx 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] xx___bets
Hero: J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___folds

[TheShootah]

I like folding on 4th. It looks like there are too many lows ahead. I think the call on 5th is ok. And I suppose then you have to call on 6th also. The thing I always keep in mind is that if I feel like I am chasing a hand a bit, I let it go. If you think you are behind in a hand, especially a hand going for basically one side, you should fold. It seems on 4th your hand is behind on both sides. Then you had to drop two bets chasing the flush.

[Andy B]

Ordinarily, a three-card low combined with a three-card flush is worth calling a bet on fourth street. In this case, though, you're up against three strong low boards. On the other hand, since everyone is in, I'm guessing this game is on the loose side, and if the guys with the low boards could be on anything, it might still be worth taking a card off.

Once you hit a fourth heart, you're seeing the river unless the action gets crazy or your hearts start falling dead (and you haven't picked up a low draw).

[SuitedBaby]

I like folding on 4th. If you believe the Jacks then you are way behind to him going high (see below with some assumptions made) and very likely way behind for low too. This is one of those hands that at best is a neutral EV but a bigtime variance increaser.

Sometimes in these very borderline situations when I am thinking about making these 4th street calls after the forced bring-in on 3rd with trash I like to look at my hand as if the 4th street card was the brick and not in the hole. Meaning here say I had 6h 3s in the hole with the 2h in the door. How would I feel about the jh on 4th? Yes these hands play differently but here it is very multi-way and likely to be show-down poker. I know it is the same cards but the momentum is different. What I mean is you surely disliked your hand on 3rd and all things considered did it improve that much compared to the others on 4th? Yes I suppose it is now playable, but why bother? Decreasing variance is a poker skill too.

I use a similar technique in no-limit holdem when I get a free play out of the big blind. I try to be objective and not too excited about flopping say a small bottom two. Doesn't mean I won't get myself in trouble but I simply want to keep in perspective how I got involved in the first place. I mean, here is me, forced in, playing against all those voluntary players, :-).

presentedhttp://twodimes.net/h/?z=869624
pokenum -mc 500000 -7s8 qc jd jc js - jh 3s 2h 6h / ac 9c 4s 3d th 2c 4c 2d 6d 2s
7-card Stud Hi/Low 8-or-better: 500000 sampled outcomes
cards scoop HIwin HIlos HItie LOwin LOlos LOtie EV
Js Qc Jc Jd 257164 443418 56581 1 0 0 0 0.701
3s Jh 6h 2h 56581 56581 443418 1 218099 0 0 0.299

[Andy B]

I wouldn't call decreasing variance a "poker skill," and it's really only important if you're on a short bankroll or if you're more risk-averse than the average gambler.

A more useful sim to run would be djr's hand vs. trip Jacks and a couple of low draws and a couple of garbage hands. Since djr has a Jack in the hole, it's less likely that the bettor has trips, so you might run it again giving the bettor two pair, two diamonds in the hole, QT in the hole (ugh), etc.

[TheShootah]

This is one, with some junk, the guy with JJ have two pair, and there being two other lows in there with him.

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=869747
pokenum -mc 500000 -7s8 jh 3s 2h 6h - td ts jc jd - kc qs ac 9c - 6c 7s 2d 4c - 5s 8d 4s 3d - ks 3h 6d 2s / th 2c
7-card Stud Hi/Low 8-or-better: 500000 sampled outcomes
cards scoop HIwin HIlos HItie LOwin LOlos LOtie EV
3s Jh 6h 2h 26889 74602 425239 159 120475 123834 5575 0.199
Ts Jc Jd Td 2556 212477 287498 25 0 0 0 0.215
Qs Ac Kc 9c 1839 130312 369663 25 0 0 0 0.132
7s 6c 4c 2d 15754 34612 464963 425 179225 210013 3126 0.216
5s 4s 8d 3d 4265 28129 471498 373 66400 247138 0 0.096
Ks 2s 6d 3h 8682 19281 480552 167 119788 123406 5532 0.142

That prolly came out looking like crap, so hopefully that link works. Bottom line is his hand on 4th has a .199 EV

[SuitedBaby]

I would call decreasing variance a poker skill just like it is an investing skill. Especially in the day of multi-tabling. It is always better to risk less for the same return.

I don't disagree with your comments on sims, (and thank you Shootah), but that wasn't the point I was trying to make so I simplified. My point was he was likely in huge trouble early high which is what was likely to became the issue and did. He knew he was in trouble low from the beginning. Low was a back-up in this particular hand. He wouldn't have played if the 6 wasn't a heart.

[TheShootah]

I don't get it. Who cares what the variance of a play is if it's a cash game. Bottom line is unless you are in a tourney, you shouldn't care about the variance of a play. You should be playing with a big enough BR to take the fluctuations. Multitabling has nothing to do with it. You should play as many tables as you can handle. You shouldn't have to worry about reducing variance, because if you do you may have to reject the best play, which sucks...

[SuitedBaby]

When you are talking about plays that have an equal expected value then you are always ahead in the long run if you reduce variance. What is so hard about this concept? Some non-newbie/stranger please step in here.

[TheShootah]

My point is that in this case, he would be folding when he had enough equity to stay in. Folding loses money that could have been won. Your suggested play reduces variance at the cost of some profit. So the two different plays don't have the same EV. I don't think you get that. What is so hard about this concept!? Look at the math....

There are six in on 4th, so you only need 16.6 % equity to play. In my sim, he has about 20%. This sim seems an accurate enough simulation of the actual simulation to be correct. Notice that your fold on fourth loses about 3.3% of all the bets going in.