UB Sunday Tournament Call for Pot Odds?

[PokerForMath]

I was playing in the UB $200 10pm Sunday tournament, first prize is $38,000.

I am late position with Kd Qd, it is 10 handed, blinds are 75/150 and about half the field has been eliminated. The game has gotten really tight and I have about $4000 in chips, a little less than average, but the rounds are only 15 minutes a piece and blinds are going up to 75/150 with a 25 ante in 10 minutes and will move up quickly thereafter. I have not seen a hand in over an hour and this is the best I have gotten.

A guy in middle position limps in and it is called by one other. I call, the little blind calls and the big blind checks. Five people are in the pot. The flop comes

Tc 7d 4d

I have two overcards and a flush draw ... fifteen outs to beat a pair of Jacks or less. The blinds check. The first player moves in 2500. The second player comes over top for 4000 all in. Now there is 7250 in the pot and I have to call 4000. I am getting close to 2:1 odds to call. If I call, what am I up against and given this what is the right thing to do?

(I will tell you what I did and what happened afterward)

[fnord_too]

That is a tough spot. There is a possibility that there is a bigger flush draw, and that you have only 6 outs. You also have a backdoor straight draw.

Getting almost 2:1 is tempting though. The first push means little, maybe top pair or a draw. The second push, who knows. This is where reads would be very helpful.

I think I fold here, but I don't think calling is bad, either. If you call and win, you have a very nice stack that you can wield.

I really don't know, I don't think either option is very bad. With such a draw heavy board, you could even be ahead against two draws. Most likely you are up against a made hand and a draw. If the made hand is only top pair, and the draw isn't to the nut flush, your 13-15 outs (facing some redraws on your top pair outs) make this an easy call. Unfortunately, you could easily be up against something like two pair and the nut flush draw, leaving you with only runner runner outs.

Tough tough spot, but again, I don't think you can make a huge mistake here unless you have reads on the opponents. I lean towards mucking.

[PokerForMath]

As it turns out I folded, much along the lines of your logic. I figured the first guy might very well have turned out to have an ace high flush draw in which case I have at most 6 outs, not enough!

[Avgard]

Curious what the two players had?

[PokerForMath]

Well, since we are not getting any interesting posts quite yet, I will tell you. The first player who moved in came in with AT, no diamonds. The next player had JJ, no diamonds! A nine of diamonds came on the river and I would have won the pot ... had I played. What I can't figure out is if I should have feared the Ad and if the fold was correct. I think it was definitely not correct if I knew that these guys would have AT, JJ. I think in that the pot was unraised and I had KQ, it was unlikely that my opponents held KK or QQ, so I was really worried about Ad Jd, Ad Td, which in thinking about it is pretty low probability versus what else they could have (and did) have. In retrospect, I think I should have called.

[Avgard]

It was a tough decision. One of the players could have had Ad xd. You see people push all the time with the nut flush draw. It is a tough call if you are nearly drawing dead. Folding was not bad, except in retrospect.

I found it a little surprising with the JJ. You would think a raise preflop would happen, but not always. I think it is an easy call with the first all in, but, the second reraise makes it difficult to call. You might even push if you are first to act, however, calling two all-ins is tough.

[locutus2002]

There are very few situations where u are better than a 30% favorite to win the pot.
The best case for you is that both players have 2 pr or sets and you have ~ 30% chance of winning.
If either player is on a draw, which would be 89d, or 56d your odds of making the flush are substantially diminished. 20%
If either player has Axd or ATd then your chances are almost nothing. ~1%


I think you have to fold to the big bet, reraise all-in.

[Che]

[ QUOTE ]
I am getting close to 2:1 odds to call. If I call, what am I up against and given this what is the right thing to do?

[/ QUOTE ]

Normally, you would expect TPgoodK or better from the first all-in and something that beats TPgoodK from the second, but I think that either of these two players could have made this move with less (I think I was at this table - Poker Ninja). Still, folding is probably best, but it would be worth the gamble if the blinds were a little bigger IMHO.

As it was, you still had 40 minutes before you would get down close to 10 BB territory so I probably wouldn't gamble here with the second nut draw. With the nut draw, I'm in there.

Later,
Che

[PokerForMath]

Hey, that's amazing. I remember you Ninja! Great eye. How did you make out? As you know, I folded, but could not decide if I had made the right choice. My logic was closest to yours in that I did not have the nut flush draw and someone else might have, making me quite worried.

[schwza]

haven't read the thread, but i think this is a fold. the first player pushes for over 3x the pot. first of all, that is a possible semi-bluff, and if it's A-high, that's horrible for you. the next player pushes on top of that. i have a hard time believing that either your K or Q is going to be an out. also there is a decent chance you're up against a set/two pair, which means you're less than 35% to win with the flush.

i think it's a fold.

also, i would've raised pre-flop. those limpers don't have AQ+/QQ+.