Newbie question about hand

[tkevinh]

Hello all

I'm a newbie player from Denmark. I seem to have caught on quickly regarding high/low split games - stud 8/b being my favourite. I've played my first two 8/b tournaments these last two days - placing 2nd out of 47 in the first and placing 1st out of 41 in the second. I think I've got the basics down, but among many others the hand below mystified me. Comments will be highly appreciated.

We're down to 12 players and the bet size is beginning to be considerable viz. stack size.

I call a completed bet from an 8 on 3rd street with (35)7 vs. (xx)8 and (xx)Q. 4th street brings:

(25)76 (xx)87 & (xx)QJ

I bet, both call. 5th street brings:

(25)766 (xx)87Q & (xx)QJK

I bet, (xx)87Q folds, (xx)QJK calls. And now my problems start. 6th street brings:

(25)7667 & (xx)QJKT

I'm not sure what to do here. Two of my 7s are gone leaving me two outs to the boat and the low draw of course. The guy must have been calling me with something (although I'm routinely shown the strangest hands by opponents). I'm thinking that if he has the straight he will raise me if I bet. I have to call the raise and a bet on 7th street no matter what I catch. So betting may cost me three large bets. I want to charge him for drawing, but he will call a bet here and fold on 7th street if he busts, so I'm risking three large bets to win one. This is mitigated by my low draw. In the end, I chicken out and check both streets and so does he, and he shows me a busted draw. Incredibly, it turns out he's been calling with (28) to go with the face cards!

I should have bet 6th street, shouldn't I? I'm afraid it's an example of how I abandon my otherwise aggressive play when the money line is in sight. As I said, comments would be most welcome. I want to learn this game.

Cheers,

BlueSmurf

[Hauser_III]

Bet sixth and then check seventh if you don't catch a low and don't fill your boat. You've probably got enough outs for the low draw, and enough equity from the made two pair on 6th, for the 6th street bet to be a good value bet.

[SuitedBaby]

I ran a few of possible scenarios on twodimes.net making a lot of assumptions without much regard to suits. These are: your hand versus a starting pair of queens, your hand versus a made straight on 6th, and last and presumably least likely your hand against a starting 3 flush that makes a 4 flush on 4th or 5th. I suppose you could be up against a small pocket pair also but this is unlikely with the betting. If he is a reasonably good player he has more now than just a pair of queens and a straight draw. He called a completed bet too the way you have it laid out.

If you consider just the first two most likely it appears you are are a relatively small favorite (58:41) or a big dog (75:25) and it is likely your opponent isn't going anywhere with that board and calling history - or as I like to put it you have little "bet equity". This is in spite of the fact that you may have just gone ahead and he knows it.

Don't know if my analysis is correct or even helpful but it would seem a check-call if necessary is in order on 6th and you will know what to do on 7th. You have 10 small bets in the pot after 5th so I think you'll be seeing his hand or winning the pot. Before running this I would have probably said bet sixth.

Versus QQ
http://twodimes.net/h/?z=862583
pokenum -7s8 2s 5h 7c 6d 6h 7d - qs 8d qh jc ks td / as 5d 8s 7h qd 7s
7-card Stud Hi/Low 8-or-better: 1122 enumerated outcomes
cards scoop HIwin HIlos HItie LOwin LOlos LOtie EV
2s 7c 7d 6d 6h 5h 533 533 589 0 429 0 0 0.583
Ks Qs Jc Td 8d Qh 347 589 533 0 0 0 0 0.417

Versus made straight
http://twodimes.net/h/?z=862956
pokenum -7s8 2s 5h 7c 6d 6h 7d - qs ad qh jc ks td / as 5d 8s 7h qd 7s
7-card Stud Hi/Low 8-or-better: 1122 enumerated outcomes
cards scoop HIwin HIlos HItie LOwin LOlos LOtie EV
2s 7c 7d 6d 6h 5h 66 66 1056 0 429 0 0 0.250
Ks Qs Jc Ad Td Qh 627 1056 66 0 0 0 0 0.750

Versus starting three flush
http://twodimes.net/h/?z=862968
pokenum -7s8 2s 5h 7c 6d 6h 7d - 2h 8h qh jc kh td / as 5d 8s 7h qd 7s
7-card Stud Hi/Low 8-or-better: 1122 enumerated outcomes
cards scoop HIwin HIlos HItie LOwin LOlos LOtie EV
2s 7c 7d 6d 6h 5h 781 781 341 0 429 0 0 0.758
Jc Td Kh Qh 8h 2h 203 341 781 0 0 0 0 0.242

[Andy B]

Get Ray Zee's high-low split book and Sklansky's tournament book if you don't already have them. Include stack sizes when discussing tournament hands.

Do you have (25)7 or (35)7? I usually won't play the former for a full bet, but might play the latter if Sixes and Fours are live. You really want low hands with stronger high possibilities, especially later in the tournament like this.

Your hand is definitely worth a bet on fourth street and probably worth a bet on fifth street. Sixth is interesting. Letting the other guy draw for free is really only a disaster if he would have folded to your bet. Now some might fear that you have a Six in the hole and fold if they don't have two pair or something. If he has two full bets or more left, that might help him lean towards folding. I probably auto-bet in this spot, but I think checking is fine.

If you don't make a low or a full house, there is no reason at all to bet seventh.

[tkevinh]

Hello SuitedBaby and Andy B

Thank you for your illuminating answers. It's precisely this high level of complexity and uncertainty that drew me to stud. I'm probably biased, because I'm easily the worst hold'em player ever. I can see that I'm actually not in a very good spot if my opponent is a decent player (which he wasn't). Even if I bet 6th street, he'll see 7th, because I have max 16 outs (more like 12 as I recall) to the low and 2 outs for the boat, whereas, if neither comes through, he has up to 22 outs to scoop if he started with two queens.

I appreciate the starting hands requirements. However, at my limits, people don't seem to understand low draws very well (I'm not exactly a genius myself). I always bet the best low draw on 4th street, whereas a large majority of my opponents not only wait to bet until they have a made low, they don't mind calling with a 3-card 8-low versus a 4-card 7-low on 4th street. Consequently, I play any 3-card low except an 87-low without flush or straight potential.

I have Zee and SS2. I'm wating to re-read them until I have more experience to bring to the learning process.

Again, thanks for taking the time.

BlueSmurf [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

[Andy B]

If you're routinely playing almost any three-card low, especially in a tournament, you need to re-read Zee sooner rather than later.

You can't possibly be the worst hold'em player ever. The competition is very, very stiff.

[tkevinh]

Hello Andy B

I meant to say that I routinely play almost any 3-card low when up against opponents I'm confident I can outplay as the hand progresses. We're talking about people who call two bets cold on 5th street, because they have a king and a jack. I tighten up my starting hand requirements as tournaments progress and the most horrible players have been eliminated. Also, if I played at Party Poker where the lowest limits have an ante-to-small-bet ratio of 1:2, I would loosen up. I believe it's in line with Mr. Sklansky's teachings. It seems to work at least.

I'm touched you don't believe me to be the worst limit hold'em player in the history of the game - although I got the feeling it was more of a general insult to the large crowd of hold'em players rather than a personal vote of confidence [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img]. However, people who have watched me play have been known to succumb to acute kidney failure and other nasty afflictions - caused solely by being exposed to my game.

Best regards,

BlueSmurf

PS: I, too, would like to hear about your objections to Brunson's stud 8/b chapter in SS2.