? about stealing (stack depth) + hand analysis

[Simplistic]

about 30 left in the 20k guaranteed on pokerroom last night, one big stack of about 80k at our table, i'm mid stacked with 30k.

blinds are 1500-3000

big stack open limps UTG+1 and I raise to 3x BB in mid position with KQo.

Question 1: with 10BB is this push or fold mode? or is a 3xBB raise still a viable play?

my read on the big stack is he could have anything, I haven't seen him raise pre-flop since playing with him for a level or two and he'll mostly just open limp, muck to a raise or play some post flop poker. in this case he called my raise and we were heads up.

flop comes down a bunch of rainbowed rags, he checks, I fire out a continuation bet of 6k and he calls it.

Question 2: I realize a bet of 6k appears pretty weak, bet more? check behind?

turn brings a King of diamonds putting two diamonds on the board, he fires out a 6k bet and I push all-in here, at this point i have about 14-15k so it's 8k more to call.

he calls, turns up Q7d and hits a river diamond to bounce me out.

analysis? push pre-flop?

[Stretch002]

I will preface this by saying I am by no means an expert...

However, once I hit 10BB I immediately stop stealing attempts, tricky plays etc and go directly into push/fold mode.

To begin, you have KQo which is not a great hand to begin with, let alone play from middle position. In this case you already have one limper, several people to act behind you, and the players in the blinds to worry about.

In my mind this is a hand which should have been mucked.

If you were in late position with it folded around or maybe one limper, I could see pushing all-in and hoping everyone folds. Although I play a bit too tightly sometimes, I would prefer to wait for a better hand to push.

Things to consider:
3BB is 9k which is nearly 30% of your stack.

If the big stack pushes all-in on your 3BB raise - what do you do? If you would call, pushing all-in instead of raising here at least gives you some fold equity...

Post-flop: You have position on him and he has shown that he will fold to a bet if the flop misses him. Here he has checked and you bet 6k....that is 1BB (3k) less than you raised pre-flop. The pot should be over 20k at this point. If you are going to bet here, why not push all-in?

On the turn you are trouble when the 2nd diamond hits. This is why you should have pushed earlier. You made the right decision going all-in on the turn to try and prevent him from drawing out on you. But he was getting great odds with the size of the pot over 30k+ and only needing 8k to call your all-in effectively getting at least break even even odds (4-1) to make the flush.

He got lucky and spiked the diamond. Tough break, but you allowed him into the hand.

I hope this helps!

[Simplistic]

thanks for your input.

my decision to raise with KQ was a semi-steal, if someone came over the top i would lay down there and go into push/fold mode. thus far I hadn't gotten any resistance when stealing blinds. to my left were a couple small stacks and unless they had premium hands they were not going to make a move. I felt I could take this hand down pre-flop.

[Scrapper12]

i think the raise was too small preflop (if you were going to raise). i would say that you've either got to fold it preflop, or raise to 12000. it's a big enough raise that the big stack might muck, and it's also a big enough raise to make people assume that you're pot committed, even if you're planning on folding to a bet that puts you all-in.

he's getting great odds with a raise to 9000 (given that he didn't know he was dominated).

i don't like the bet on the flop either; if you're going to be you've got to go all-in, but i personally think a check is in order. there's 22250 in the pot at that point, and you've got 21000 left. if you check it, then the king of diamonds hits and he fires out 6000, the all-in move still has some weight. he's not getting the right odds to call and might consider mucking, as he's only on a draw. the only way a call for him can be correct at all at that point is if there's a 7 on board as well, and he's got more than the diamond outs.

was there a 7 on board?

[Stretch002]

Obviously a move like this is very read dependant. So I can understand why you would try to capture this pre-flop.

I think I may be playing overly tight but I would be careful trying to steal with only 10BB in my stack with a marginal hand like this. Especially with the big stack already limping ahead of me.

[Simplistic]

i am pretty sure there wasn't a 7. high card was 9 and there was a 6 and a 4 I think. either way, I was ahead and got killed on the river. I guess I need to man up and semi-bluff on the flop. I just don't want to trap myself, especially when the money gets so much deeper

[LostMyCaseMoney]

The big stack shows he likes to get in pots show if he limps another 2 BBs is nothing to call. If your going to raise and not go all-in I would have made it 2.5xBB if no one behind you is getting in without a hand. 3x the "standard" raise which is 30% of your stack suggesting you would likely just as soon push in if you had a real hand. 2.5x keeps anybody from limping but smells odd making me think you might want a call (while allowing me to save .5BBs if someone has a monster) getting me to toss my blind still knowing that the big stack will call. The big stack would likely fold to a raise of 4xBB but you can't move that many chips in without going all-in. So now it's you and BS you either move all-in or check the flop. He's likely a bully seeing that many flops and having a large stack so I would be suspicious of him checking the flop however I'd still go all-in because being a bully it's either a monster or nothing when you check and with a ragged flop I'd feel safe he didn't hit trips and hopefully not two pair. All-in on a ragged flop with an odd preflop raise says overpair and is going to get him to lay down less then two pair unless he has draws to a flush or straight as well (AQ with a flush draw or something). The other proper play would be to check behind and then the turn plays out the same way. You shouldn't have bet the flop the way you did and would have possibly been able to get him to laydown the flush draw on the turn but you got your money in with a good favorite. Of course I'm a winning player with bigger leaks then the Titantic so maybe I'm wrong.

[Elaboration]

[ QUOTE ]
my read on the big stack is he could have anything, I haven't seen him raise pre-flop since playing with him for a level or two and he'll mostly just open limp, muck to a raise

[/ QUOTE ]

Push pre-flop. Raising 3xbb against an open limping big stack doesn't accomplish much except build a pot.

Tough luck on the river. [img]/images/graemlins/mad.gif[/img]

[Simplistic]

my thinking AGAINST pushing is, KQ is a less than premium hand, and if I do get called (mid position) then i'm likely dominated. I just wanted more of a steal. perhaps I should have just picked a better place. hmm.

[JohnG]

[ QUOTE ]
about 30 left in the 20k guaranteed on pokerroom last night, one big stack of about 80k at our table, i'm mid stacked with 30k.

blinds are 1500-3000

big stack open limps UTG+1 and I raise to 3x BB in mid position with KQo.

Question 1: with 10BB is this push or fold mode? or is a 3xBB raise still a viable play?

[/ QUOTE ]

3X BB is too small a raise with a limper already in. Especially when we are raising with a hand that would rather take it there and then, and against a loose big stack. Our raise is begging to be called when we don't really want to be. With a limper already in there, I'm normally pushing or folding on these ratios. Even moreso when it's a loose big stack that could have anything. If we raise, we're on a steal, so maximise our leverage. If the big stack calls us, we may well not be far behind.

[ QUOTE ]
flop comes down a bunch of rainbowed rags, he checks, I fire out a continuation bet of 6k and he calls it.

Question 2: I realize a bet of 6k appears pretty weak, bet more? check behind?

[/ QUOTE ]

Our stacks about the size of the pot now? Either bet allin and pray, or check. Depends on the big stack player. Tough spot against a loose player and it's all our own fault.