Heres a Fun One

[tomcain]

I would put him on 2 high cards or a small pair. The problem with 2 pair on board, is that it will most likely come down to a kicker. The ONLY hands you can beat are 23 & 33. You tie with 44 and 34. Now what are the chances of him having one of those hands. Not enough for a bet, IMHO.

[JKetzer]

Maybe he's slowplaying the hell out of three jacks. At least it's easy to fold to the raise.

I can also see a flush draw here a whole lot. Betting on the river is basically the only way you're going to win this pot, and given your read of the table, it should succeed often enough to be a +EV move.

[phlup]

I think you should bet the river here. We are 99.9% sure you have the worst hand at this point. Therefore the only way you win is by getting him to fold.

If you think about it, there are 5 big bets in the pot. Now by betting you're giving yourself a 5:1 situation. Therefore you if you believe that he will fold at least 20% of the time, this is a smart play.

If this happend 10 times with a 20% fold:
You bet, he folds (twice): Win 10 BB
You bet, he calls (eight times): Lose 8 BB

You still have a positive expectation for this hand as long as you think he'll fold 20% of the time.


But then again I'm really new at this so I might be completely off. If you're going to rip this apart, please be kind.

[KaiShin]

There is no way Hero is winning this hand by checking behind, so I think its OK to bet out here and think that a weak-tight villain will fold 20% of the time.

[tiltaholic]

[ QUOTE ]
There is no way Hero is winning this hand by checking behind, so I think its OK to bet out here and think that a weak-tight villain will fold 20% of the time.

[/ QUOTE ]

[Sulphate1]

By checking behind you are almost NEVER going to win the hand. If you bet the weak-tight villain may fold any two unimproved cards that dont have the Ace kicker. Altho you are probly -EV by betting you its still far better than checking imo.

[btspider]

fine.. but people love to call with Ace high here. pray for a busted draw that folds.

[istewart]

I like the river bet. Throws a little spice into the hand, even when it invariably fails [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

[KingOtter]

[ QUOTE ]
There is no way Hero is winning this hand by checking behind, so I think its OK to bet out here and think that a weak-tight villain will fold 20% of the time.

[/ QUOTE ]

I second what Kai said. You can't win it by checking, so you might as well bet.

Edit: er... I guess I third it, since tilt seconded it... heh

KO

[FishHooks]

Hmm i dont know, your not going to get someone to fold a better hand, your just hoping to get called by an A high. Most people are smart enough to fold their busted draws, check/call might be best here, still unsure.