5/10 nl game

[Sunglasses]

You are in a 5/10nl fullring on parypoker

you have the button and 99 utg+1 calls mp calls folded to you who makes it 50$ total SB calls BB fold the two limpers calls as well

210$ pot and A9J two clubs checked to you and you bet 200$ sb rais it to 450total the limpers folds what do you do?

I have him coverd and he have 1500$ an I have 2500$

[xorbie]

I think JJ is the most likely holding here. It depends on how often you've been raising on the button PF and how often UTG has been calling. He could have TQ[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] or a pair and two clubs. It's up to you to figure out which is more likely, given your read of what he would limp/call with.

[Sunglasses]

I hade 2500$ so I hade taken the advantage of using the button pf alot erlier

[Krytemaster]

I would say that the question here is whether u would reraise and try to get it allin on the flop or if you should just call hoping the turn won´t destroy either your hand or his hand.

I would probably raise back since there are many dangerous cards that could come on turn, as I said above, both cards that ruin your hand and cards that ruin your opponents.

Since a reraise from you would basically mean allin for both if he decides to play it, I think you could go allin right away. Often an allin looks weaker than a smaller raise. That is if he had 1500 before the hand started at least.

[LuvDemNutz]

Is the A a club?

[Jeffage]

Tough spot, but I think it's impossible to get away from your hand. It's doubtful he'd just call with AA out of the blind and let the people in between see the flop cheap. Would he call out of the blind with something like AJs here? I'd say JJ is a possibility but so is something like AJ, J9s, a super-draw, AK, etc. I would make a large reraise and see what he does.

Jeff

[Cornell Fiji]

[ QUOTE ]
I think JJ is the most likely holding here. It depends on how often you've been raising on the button PF and how often UTG has been calling. He could have TQ[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] or a pair and two clubs. It's up to you to figure out which is more likely, given your read of what he would limp/call with.

[/ QUOTE ]


There is an epidemic on this board of players always assuming that the villain has a monster no matter how unlikely that might be.

I understand that it is possible that the villain has JJ here but why would that be more likely than AJ? Both would smooth call the pf raise but there are 9 ways that the villain could hold AJ but only 3 ways he could hold JJ. He could make the same flop play with either hand so why is JJ so damn likely?

Furthermore why is Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] the other hand that the villain might have. Why do you even assume that he would call the pf raise with QTs? And why is it more likely that he would make this play with QTs than AJ or K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]Q [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] or, if the ace is not a club as another poster suggested, with Ax [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. Check-raising and betting the turn (its coming if hero smoothcalls) is a real show of stregnth, big enough to knock most players off of AK (no club,) with this in mind why is it any less likely that the villain holds KQ [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] here?

How in the world were you able to narrow this hand down to JJ and QTs as villains most likely holdings?


-Steve

I don't intend the tone of this post to be mean, I intend it to be instructional.

[Cornell Fiji]

Sunglasses,
I think that the range of hands that you are against is easily wide enough that you should want to think about the best way to get your stack in here. On a draw heavy board like this one you are losing a lot of EV if you are able to get away from set over set in a hand like this one.

This hand is tricky because if you put in a 3rd bet you are showing unbelieveable stregnth and will let the villain get away from all 1 pair hands, but also you are protecting your hand against the flush draw (given that you raise enough to make the draw unprofitable.)

I am 90% sure that the villain will follow up his check raise with a continuation bet of 500-750 on the turn. Because of this I would probably smooth call on the flop and push any non club turn. A club will fall about 1/5 of the time here, even if you were to fold every time a club hit, if we are to assume that the villain will fire out 500+ on the turn, this is still a profitable play (although I havent yet proven that it is optimal.)

I think the play here is to smoothcall and push a non club turn.

What I would do on a club turn would depend on if the ace on the board was a club and any reads that I have on the villain. I would not worry at all about the QT straight getting there on the turn, if a K fell I would probably be happy because it would allow me to stack off AK.

-Steve

[LuvDemNutz]

[ QUOTE ]


I think the play here is to smoothcall and push a non club turn.



[/ QUOTE ]

I haven't run any regressions as to whether this is the "optimal" play or not, but this is how I would play it as well.

[dtbog]

[ QUOTE ]
There is an epidemic on this board of players always assuming that the villain has a monster no matter how unlikely that might be.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well said.

-dB