Pot odds question.

[sunek]

Hi

I think I understand the basic concept about pot odds. However when looking at your pot odds at the flop, I am not sure weather to use the odds for my outs for the turn alone or for turn and river combined.

An example: On the flop I have a flush draw to the nut flush. Assume I am the last person to move at the flop, so the pot will not be bigger on the flop but I will not be raised either. Also assume that the flush is my only chance to win the pot, e.g. My hand is 2h, Kh and the flop is Ah, 9d, 4h, and I am 90% sure that one of my opponents has an ace. The pot is offering me odds 1:3 if I call, however my odds of catching my flush on the turn alone is a bit above 1:4. But the odds of catching my flush by the river are a bit better than 1:2. So should I call or fold?

Thank you

sunek

[Onaflag]

The "two cards to come" is messing you up. With the numbers you quote, it would be a bad call because you're not getting the odds on the "next" card you need. Possible bets on the last card are implied odds and against a lone opponent who is currently ahead, you won't have the odds to call there either.

It's difficult to grasp and I am no expert, but understanding the odds for the NEXT card to come is mandatory before delving into implied odds.

So, in your example, you have to pay 1 unit to make 3 on the flop and will hit it once every 5 tries. No good. But let's say you call it and miss. There are 4 units in the pot and the betting is now 2 units which is what he bet. You have to call 2 units to win 6. No good. There would have to be more than 8 units at that point to just break even.

Maybe someone else will pipe in with an easier explanation if that doesn't make sense.

Onaflag.............

[Ace_Ren]

Your chip stack matters as well as your implied odds.

First off, if your call would result in you being all-in or nearly all-in, then you can indeed go with the odds all the way to the river and make the call.

However, in most cases, you will not be all-in, so you should really be looking at the odds of hitting it on the next card. This is done because your opponent will probably bet again on the turn and you'll have those bets to consider as well.

example:
Considering no limit. Folded around to you on the button.
You have Jc/10c and call the blind of 100 from the button.
SB folds.
BB raises to 225 (you presume A/X)
you call.
Pot is $500
Flop comes Ac, 6d, 3c (a good flush draw)
BB bets out $250 (pot is now laying you exactly 3:1)

If you have a stack of less than $500 left, you can push and you'd be getting 2:1 odds on a draw that is slightly better than 2:1 to the river. Over the long haul, this play will make you money. Not to mention that it's a semi-bluff that has the potential to win the pot outright if your opponent fears your raises. In a tournament, it can be a nasty risk, tournament strategy differs (sometimes even when you have the pot odds, it's a mistake to play).

In this specific case, you can also call with the intention of automatically calling again on the turn since you'll be getting the 4:1 pot odds at that point. Even if you don't hit, you may get lucky and your opponent will check the turn and river. Saving you that last $250. It's a pretty passive play though and people at 2+2 rarely like passive plays.

If you have a big stack and your opponent will fold if another club comes, FOLD. You have no implied odds and you are almost certain to face another bet on the turn if the club misses. A smart opponent who knows you are drawing will crank the bet up past $250 to make it incorrect to draw, and you should fold. So, save your bets on the flop.

However, if you have a big stack, but you think you can still win a lot from this opponent if you hit (maybe even his whole stack), a call would be acceptable. This is implied odds at work. It becomes a very imperfect science to know how much you can win from an opponent when you do hit, just understand that it should be significant.


Note that in only one of the cases do I recommend folding. However, the vast majority of the time, the folding case is the correct case. The majority of the time, you need the correct odds on the next card for the play to be profitable.