Another O8 Hand

[El Dukie]

4-8 O8 game, 9-handed; it's been on the passive side but a couple of more aggressive players just sat down. The previous hand was a scooper, so this one is a kill, boosting the stakes up to 8-16. I've got around 150 in front of me. The players on my immediate right and left have around 70 and 60, respectively. In late-mid position, I pick up KKJT, unsuited, and decide to see the flop after three early limpers (including the kill-poster), including the player on my immediate right. C/O Player on my immediate left, one of the aggressive ones, limps as well, along with the button, and we see the flop 7-handed for one bet each.

Flop comes Kc 9h 4c. I've hit my set. But there's a flush-draw against me. Checked to me, I bet, CO raises, folded to POMR (Player on my Right) who cold-calls, I call.

Turn is a 5s. I put CO on a likely flush draw, since there are no open-end str8 draws on the flop. I doubt he has an under-set, but if so, I'm happy to charge him to draw to it. He might have a back-door low draw, as well. POMR checks. I bet. CO raises, leaving himself with around $5. POMR calls, leaving himself with exactly $16. I re-raise, putting them both all-in. (They call, as expected.)

Naturally, the Jc hits on the river, and I lose both the side pot to POMR's 9c3c and the main to CO's Ac4c. (They also had the backdoor lows working.) Bygones.

Here's the question. Given that I put (at least) CO on the flush draw, is it correct to put them both all-in on the turn (when I know I'm ahead), or should I wait to see a harmless river card? This is more a rhetorical question than anything else, since it seems to me that I might save myself a bet on the river when the flush card hits, but I also won't collect anything from them if the board pairs or the flush card doesn't hit. Since they were both drawing to either the club or the low, they certainly were correct in their calls; does it make sense to tap players out when they're not making a mistake in calling you? Or is this just one of those O8 situations where you're correct to charge them as much as possible and they're correct to call anyway?

[Buzz]

"Here's the question. Given that I put (at least) CO on the flush draw, is it correct to put them both all-in on the turn (when I know I'm ahead), or should I wait to see a harmless river card?"

Omaha Hi/Low 8-or-better: 36 enumerated boards containing Kc 4c 9h 5s
cards..........scoop..HIwin..HIlos..HItie..LOwin.. LOlos..LOtie....EV
Ks Tc Kd Jh....14.....24......12.......0.......0........0.. .......0.....0.528
9s 9c 3c Ah.......4......4......32.......0.......3.......11 .........0.....0.111
Ac 2c 4d 6h.......8......8......28.......0.....16........3. ........0.....0.361

Omaha Hi/Low 8-or-better: 36 enumerated boards containing Kc 4c 9h 5s
cards.........scoop..HIwin..HIlos..HItie..LOwin..L Olos..LOtie....EV
Ks Tc Kd Jh....15.....21......15......0.......0........0... ......0......0.500
9s 9c 3c Ah.......4......4......32.......0......3.......10. ........0......0.111
Ac 2c 6h 7d....11......11......25......0.....15........3... ......0......0.389

Omaha Hi/Low 8-or-better: 36 enumerated boards containing Kc 4c 9h 5s
cards.........scoop..HIwin..HIlos..HItie..LOwin..L Olos..LOtie....EV
Ks Tc Kd Jh....15.....19......17......0.......0.........0.. .......0.....0.472
9s 9c 3c 2h.......4.......6......30......0.......3.......10 .........0.....0.139
Ac 2c 6h 7d.....11.....11......25.....0......15........3... ......0.....0.389

Omaha Hi/Low 8-or-better: 36 enumerated boards containing 5s Kc 4c 9h
cards.........scoop..HIwin..HIlos..HItie..LOwin..L Olos..LOtie....EV
Ks Tc Kd Jh....15.....20......16......0.......0........0... ......0.......0.486
9s 9c 3c 2h.......1.......1......32......3.......0......11. .........3......0.069
Ac 2c 3h 7d.....12.....12......21......3.....15........0... ......3......0.444

simulations are from twodimes.net

Not sure why we only got 36 enumerated boards each time, but I ran it four times with slightly different opposing hands, and maybe you can see a trend, although playing it out 144 times isn’t enough. If anyone out there understands this better than I evidently do, please give me a clue.

Since you can’t have the 4c on the board and also in an opponent’s hand (typo?), I put the 2c in the winning opponent’s hand.

Looks like the set of kings has the best of it each time. I think it’s the correct move to put your opponents all-in before the river.

Just my opinion.

Buzz

[chaos]

36 enumerated boards comes from the choices fro the last card.

52 card deck - (3 hands * 4 cards) - 4 card board = 36 card stub

[beetman]

First, why in the world didn't you re-raise the flop? I am having trouble envisioning a scenario where you're not ahead on the flop. Second, whether or not they are making "a mistake" by calling on the turn isn't important. If you have the best of it, you should put them all-in unless they might bluff on the river when they miss (not likely with one person already all-in.)

[iblucky4u2]

I have to disagree with the other posters. There are the 10 cards that give you a full house or quads on the river and the scoop. Other than those, ANY OTHER CARD will make at least a straight, so in reality, while you are ahead on the turn, you really need the board to pair to have the nuts on this hand. My calculations show that you have 10 cards to the nuts (excluding someone else's quads) and 34 cards that hurt you. This type of hand can be one of the most costly in low limit O/8, flopping top set and hoping. Especially with the 2nd low card on the turn, there are any number of hands that are probably favorites to your hand... Ac2cXX where xx can be any type of cards that make the random str8, the low or obviously the nut flush. Just MHO

[Buzz]

iblucky4u2 - Good point. Indeed, every card left in the pack, except the ten cards that pair the board, enables a straight or a flush.

But here’s the thing, if El Dukie had four or five opponents, they might be able to cover every possibility, but with only two opponents, they can’t.

If both opponents could cover all the possibilities, in other words, if one of them would have a better hand unless the board paired on the river, then El Dukie would need the board to pair - and the odds against the board pairing, from the standpoint of looking only at the board and El Dukie’s hand, are 34 to 10, or 3.4 to 1. Since with two opponents El Dukie is only getting 2 to 1 fresh money odds, initiating a bet would seem to be a poor move.

However, especially given the stipulation that both of his opponents had lows and both of them had clubs, (one with 9c3cXX and the other with AcXcXX), it’s difficult to create hands for his two opponents which make the actual odds worse than approximately 1.8 to 1 against El Dukie. Here’s another, scarier, sim, again from twodimes.net.

Running: pokenum -o8 ks kd jh tc - 9c 3c 6d 7s - ac 5c qd ts -- kc 4c 9h 5s :
Omaha Hi/Low 8-or-better: 36 enumerated boards containing 5s Kc 4c 9h
cards.........scoop..HIwin..HIlos..HItie..LOwin..L Olos..LOtie....EV
Ks Tc Kd Jh....12.....15.....21.......0.......0........0... ......0.......0.375
9c 3c 7s 6d......13......13......23......0......20......0.. ........0......0.458
Ac 2c 3h 7d......4......8......28......0......0........0... ......0......0.167

A word of explanation. In this sim, KsKdJhTc wins for high 15 times but only scoops twelve of these times. The splits with low complicate things, and the EVs don’t quite fully compensate for the splits, evidently counting a scoop as 1 and a split as 1/2. While you do get half the pot when you split, you *win* less than half as much when you split as when you scoop (because of what you, yourself contribute, half of which goes to your opponent). Thus 0.4 would probably be a better value to use for splits than 0.5. In that case the EV for KsKdJhTc would be lower, 0.367, making the odds 1.7 to 1 against El Dukie. You could argue that 0.3 would be an even better factor to use for splits than 0.5 or 0.4, and in that case the odds would be 1.8 to 1 against El Dukie. (Not a good deal of difference between using 0.5, 0.4 or 0.3 as the split factor - but some - it favors your position to make the split factor as small as reasonable possible).

With two opponents, if one of them wasn’t going all-in with less than the amount of the bet, El Dukie would be getting 2 to 1 fresh money odds - and although that isn’t better than the odds against the board pairing, it *is* better than any of the simulated hand scenario odds against El Dukie.

However, because one of his opponents is going all-in with less than the amount El Dukie is putting in the pot, El Dukie is only getting 21 to 16 or 1.3 to 1 fresh money odds. Thus it is possible to come up with an opponent’s hands scenario (for example, the one shown in this post) where betting is not favorable.

For the other possible opponent’s hands scenarios I simulated last night (in my mentally fatigued fog), El Dukie’s hand odds range from 0.9 to 1 to 1.1 to 1 against. In *all* those cases, he’s getting better fresh money odds than the actual hand odds against him (if you could see all the hands) - and thus he would do well to put his opponents both all-in.

I wasn’t thinking clearly last night or I would have made El Dukie’s opponent’s hands scarier, as with the above sim.

I’ll agree it’s close. Without the sims I would probably be in your corner on this one, figuring odds of 3.4 to 1 against El Dukie. But I think with only two opponents, if you could somehow see all the cards and figure the odds on that basis, rather than just figuring the odds on the basis of El Dukie’s hand plus the board after the turn, El Dukie doesn’t have it nearly that bad. In other words, only two opponents can’t reasonably cover all the bases against El Dukie if the board doesn’t pair.

There's food for more thought here.

Just my opinion.

Buzz

[Buzz]

“I am having trouble envisioning a scenario where you're not ahead on the flop.”

Beetman - How about flop = 2h3h4h or flop = Ad6d8c - or about a jillion other flops as well? Isn’t KKJTn one of those hands that is very flop dependent? As I recall, you, yourself, recently mentioned the dependency of some hands on flops (in an excellent post on r.g.p. that I’ve lost track of now). Off hand, I’d estimate that KKJTn fits well enough to continue with roughy between 1/5 and 1/4 of all possible flops and doesn’t fit well enough to continue with the other 3/4 to 4/5 of all possible flops.

Don’t you want to see the flop as cheaply as possible with those hands that are very flop dependent?

Buzz

[beetman]

I think you misread my post--I said he should have re-raised the flop, not that he should have raised preflop. The scenario I couldn't envision is how he could be behind on the flop of Kc9x4c against two opponents.

In general I do prefer limping with KKJT type hands, although every once in a while I will raise for tactical purposes.

[beernutz]

There are also 3 queens that give him the nut straight. So that's a little closer at 13:31. However, especially since there are only 2 other opponents, it is unlikely that ALL of those 34 other cards will give one of these 2 a straight and the trips could still hold up for high even if one does hit.

I'm with Beetman on this one, I reraise that flop and put the others all in then if possible.

[El Dukie]

I appreciate everyone's comments and analysis. (Yes, I did make a typo in the orignal posting; the CO didn't have 4c, it was 6c, but he did have an offsuit 2 and 4 as well.) There were several reasons why I didn't 3-bet the flop. First, I wouldn't have been able to move them all-in on the flop anyway (4-bet cap). Second, since they had both already raised/called 2, a third bet wouldn't have moved them out. Third -- and this might have been a mistake -- I did want to see the turn card before I jammed it. (With top set, I'd have probably had to call to see the river if the club came on the turn, anyway, especially if it was a high club and I was playing for a scoop.) Fourth, I didn't want to make it too obvious I had the set, in case the board paired on the turn -- I don't want people who are drawing dead to fold. For the record, it was a winning night, and I think I played well overall, but I'm still nowhere near as good with my O8 game as I'd like to be.... [img]/forums/images/icons/grin.gif[/img]