hmmm.... diffficult "call on the bubble" problem

[allenciox]

Hmmm... difficult problem, like some votes and comments on what is the best play in this situation.

$100+9 NLHE SNG, 4 players remaining, blinds 100/200

chip amounts after posting blinds:

UTG -- 1400 TC, solid player --- goes all-in
Button --- 1600 TC, also a solid player, folds
SB --- 5800 TC, maniac who has played 67% of the hands in this tourney, raising the pot 40% of the time, but this time he folds.
BB --- 900 TC, you were dealt KQ of diamonds.

Do you:

<ul type="square">[*]fold[*]call[/list]
Why or why not?

[Rolen]

If the raiser really is solid he wouldn't go allin behind a maniac with a big stack without a hand that dominates yours, fold.

EDIT : Btw, for my money, this isn't close. Easy fold

[microbet]

I don't have time to do the ICM, but pot is offering just 10 to 7. You say the pusher is solid and against a fairly narrow range of hands (77+, A9+, KQs), you are a 3 to 2 dog.

Looks like a fold. Future fold equity isn't a big consideration, because with a maniac on the big stack you don't have much. Still, fold, hope for a good hand, and if not, take your chances against the maniac.

Of course you may have some FE. Is the maniac a calling maniac or just a opening maniac? A lot of aggressive players like to bet out, but not call. He may not even mind keeping the short stack around.

[hurlyburly]

I'd fold here too. The best you can hope for is to be a dog to an underpair (since he's solid). Add to that you have enough chips to see about 10 more hands before being blinded out, and have chances to steal coming up.

[dfscott]

I have to admit that at first glance, I thought this might be a call, but after running the numbers, it appears that I was wrong.

If you put him on microbet's range (77+, A9+, KQs), ICM shows this as a fold (12.1% vs. 10.4%). Even if you are willing to put him on any pair, any ace, it's still a fold (due to the A, of course). It's a coin flip if you throw in BJ hands. It's not until you loosen him up to any pair, A or K that it become worth a call, and I think that's highly unlikely in this situation.

This looks like an easy fold.

[Slim Pickens]

My first intuition was "fold." I Power Tooled it, and it said fold, unless the raiser is a total maniac. Since you say he's not, it looks like a clear fold.

Slim

[allenciox]

Thanks all, particularly for the analysis... unfortunately, I thought a bit and called, figuring that I would not have a lot of opportunities to steal coming after the maniac, who would surely put me all-in on any hand that is unraised coming to him. I also thought that if I won the hand, the first player would be severely short-stacked and at least third should be a cinch.

However, the first player turned over AK... and ask not for whom the bell tolled, it tolled for me.