The "lifespan" of Online Poker

[revots33]

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The fish don't run out of money. They have jobs and redeposit another $200 when they feel like playing again

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Some do and some don't. I have several friends who started playing online, lost, redeposited a few times, and then gave up. They don't play at all anymore. My one friend actually told me he uninstalled Party from his computer. Not everyone enjoys giving away their hard-earned money in a game they suck at.

There will always be fish. But in order for online games to stay as easy as they are now, you need as many new fish joining as there are old fish leaving (either by quitting the game or improving their play to non-fish status).

I think it's naive to think that there's an endless supply of fish who will never tire of donating their money. While there may be a few, there are many more who either get better or quit. So once the supply of new players starts to dwindle, the games will get harder. I'd say enjoy it while it lasts.

[applej25]

So after a few days of replies...........

public opinion seems to be fairly equally divided on the matter.

[Krytie]

I think I'm on both sides of this one. The outlook of online poker looks poor, but it'll recover and be as good as ever, one day.

Have you ever seen one of those predator/prey simulations like (appropriately) Sharks and Fishes? It starts out with a lot of fish and a couple of sharks in the water. The sharks eat some fish, make more sharks, who eat more fish, etc. until the population of fish is too small to support the population of sharks and the sharks start dying out and the fish population recovers. Plotting the fish population on a graph shows a very regular cycle, similar to the population cycle of prey animals in the wild.

I suspect the on-line poker community (barring anything awful like government regulation) will go through such regular cycles as well. The fish will run away and the less successful pros will be forced to get a new vocation, but the fish will be back and the pros will be right behind.

Krytie

P.S. Here's a link to one such simulation: http://www.leinweb.com/snackbar/wator/

[Ass Master]

I don't think there's much of a point in trying to forecast the future of online poker, mainly because people generally suck at forecasting. I think the most rational approach is to have a plan for either case (drying up versus staying the same or getting better).

Online poker isn't as accessible as it could or should be. Sure, it's easy to find the websites and install the software, but funding an account is a pain in the ass because most credit card companies block such transactions and PayPal does not honor them either. Therefore, a recreational player will usually find himself having to go through the process of opening up an account with a PayPal-type company (Neteller etc.) that he's never heard of before and maybe wait a couple of days to get his bank account info verified.

[rickw]

This is a very interesting debate.

Going to Vegas years ago, I thought "How the heck can they keep building new casinos, each bigger than the rest, one after another . . .?" And yet each one fills up (it's still hard to get a room on weekends), and generates enough cash flow in 6-8 years to return construction costs plus a return on capital . . .

The limits on gambling expansion don't appear to have been met yet, generally. (Although there are some markets where B&M casinos do better than others and some new casinos have struggled.)

As to online, people like to gamble (just like they like to look at porn), and the internet allows you to do that in the comfort of you home. So online gambling is here to stay, will continue growing for a while and there will be a winnowing out where certain sites will probably emerge dominant.

I think there will always be a big supply of people willing to lose their money online. Gambling exerts a strong pull and online gambling makes access easier.

The only question is whether people will move on from online poker to something else. Who knows but I don't think we've peaked yet.

[hicherbie]

i think the number of fish wont be as staggering as it is right now, but there will always be fish. a lot of fish.
im always amazed at what i hear talking to people at low limit tables in vegas or in CA casinos. people that have played for years and are still totally clueless. for them its something to occupy their time since they dont really have anything else to do. "i lose my money here slower than i lose at blackjack" ive heard more than a few times.