AKo Hand - Odds to Call on Flop?

Jax_Grinder · #1 03-30-2005, 01:00 AM

$30+3 MTT. 1100 reg. and 190 (+/-) left. $$ starts at 130.

Read on Villain 1 is tight, more agressive preflop (has folded to lead out bettor on flop after PF raise several times). Read on Villain 2 is semi-LAG. (We've all been at table since start of tourney).

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Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t300 (9 handed) converter

UTG (t8575)
UTG+1 (t3025) (Villain1)
MP1 (t6204)
MP2 (t2660)
MP3 (t6645) (Hero)
CO (t7375) (Villain2)
Button (t2365)
SB (t10381)
BB (t2090)

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
UTG calls t300, UTG+1 (Villain1) raises to t800, 2 folds, Hero raises to t1400, CO (Villain2) calls t1400, 3 folds, UTG folds, UTG+1 (Villain1) calls t600.

Flop: (t4950) 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
UTG+1 (Villain1) bets t1625 (All-In), Hero folds, CO (Villain2) calls t1625.

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My thought process went thusly:

1. Reraise preflop to isolate Villain1 and find out where I am if he comes over top or calls.

2. When V2 calls and V1 calls, I put V1 on mid-pair or high suited connectors and (based on my loose read) V2 on A10 or better (figuring if he is on big-cards he re-pops me right here with that many chips in the pot).

3. Flop comes rags and V1 all-in. I am 90% certain he has overpair here and if V2 is on Ax then I figure I am a huge dog (4-1 or so?) and I fold. (I really didn't think to hard about the odds I was getting to call, because I felt that if I called and V2 came over the top, I would have to fold.)

In retrospect, given the odds I was getting and if I had any confidence in my read on V2, I wonder if pushing all-in over the top of V1 wasn't the correct play.

AK has been VERY rough on me lately so here's hoping some thoughts on this hand help get me over the hump...Thanks in advance.

Roman · #2 03-30-2005, 01:41 AM

I would probably just stick it in PF, if one has AA or KK, so be it. As for the flop, I would fold, way too much going on, and I want chips to be able to steal.

young nut · #3 03-30-2005, 02:37 AM

I think you might have the odds to call the all in b/c of the fact that there is a slight chance of a bluff with AQ or AJ or a weaker ace (even maybe AK, though doubtful since he didn't push PF) Also you are getting about 4 to 1 on the call with 2 cards to come.

The reason to fold here is because of Villian 2. He is behind you and he has you covered. He also cold called a raise and reraise indicating pretty decent strenth. Most importantly, he has you covered, so a call here would be horrible if he pushed over top (and we don't want to put ourselves in that situation.) I think it was a good laydown, but I probably would have called had villian 2 not been involved.

Jax_Grinder · #4 03-30-2005, 10:50 AM

Thanks for the replies so far...

Results:

Turn: (t6575) 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)

River: (t6575) K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)

Final Pot: t6575

Villain1 has Td Th (one pair, tens).
Villain2 has Ah Kh (one pair, kings).
Outcome: Villain2 wins t6575.

Upon further reflection, I think V2 f'd me up by giving V1 the right odds to call pf w/ any pair for his set. Really didn't think a set from V1 was probable postflop given the texture of the flop. Even though I was correct in the end, I wonder if I should've given more consideration to the possibility (same result though...).

Also, should I have given more weight to my read on Villain2 and pushed over the top of Villain1 in the hopes of shutting him out? Obviously this may be tainted by some results-oriented bias, but I'm wondering if this is the kind of move that has to be made at this stage to make the deep money more consistently.

Thanks again.