Since we're talking about mid-PPs, from last night.....

brettbrettr · #1 03-29-2005, 07:15 PM

I haven't been at this table long enough to have a read, and I haven't played 3/6 enough to know what is and isn't "typical." I do however wonder if you think my river play is "value betting" or "nutso."

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
UTG calls, 2 folds, Hero raises, 1 fold, MP3 calls, 3 folds, BB 3-bets, UTG folds, Hero calls, MP3 calls.

Through a couple of orbits all I know is that the table is tight so yes, I like my hand, moreso when I can narrow the field, and even buy the button from MP1. Not standard, but its a damn tight table.

Flop: (10.33 SB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players)
BB bets, Hero raises, MP3 folds, BB calls.

I like this flop for my hand. I think I'm ahead so I raise. Pretty standard.

Turn: (7.16 BB) J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets, BB calls.

Not a great card, but certianly the best of the face cards. He checks, I bet again.

River: (9.16 BB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets, BB calls.

This wasn't likely to change anything. If he bets out I reluctantly call. If he c/r's me, I probably make a really bad call. I hated it when he called and that's why I'm questioning the bet.

Final Pot: 11.16 BB

sthief09 · #2 03-29-2005, 07:26 PM

well played. the river bet depends on whether he'll pay you off with overs, but I'd suspect he'd put in another raise on the flop with AA/KK, and he might lead the flop with QQ since he'd have an OESD. so I'd expect you to be ahead her most of the time

flopmonster · #3 03-29-2005, 07:29 PM

What hand that you have beat would call in this spot.?? i would put him on sumthing like a10 or a draw. check this river

sthief09 · #4 03-29-2005, 07:32 PM

AT? he 3-bet preflop. AK or AQ seem by far the most probable, and headsup, theyw ill both pay off frequently

afk · #5 03-29-2005, 07:35 PM

[ QUOTE ]
AT? he 3-bet preflop. AK or AQ seem by far the most probable, and headsup, theyw ill both pay off frequently

[/ QUOTE ]

Enough that hero will win at least 55% of the time? When the table is tight like this? Unfortunatly we don't have a read on villain though.

ayecappy · #6 03-29-2005, 07:41 PM

<blockquote>Svar till:<hr />
Enough that hero will win at least 55% of the time?

[/ QUOTE ]
What do you base that figure on, his possible range of hands, the pot size?

afk · #7 03-29-2005, 07:45 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Enough that hero will win at least 55% of the time?

[/ QUOTE ]
What do you base that figure on, his possible range of hands, the pot size?

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm going off of Theory of Poker (someone tell me if I have it wrong). But on the end when your opponent checks to you, you should be if you think you'll have the best hand at least 55% of the time when he calls. You have to win more than half the time to make the bet profitable, and the extra 5% I believe accounts for when you get check-raised.

brettbrettr · #8 03-29-2005, 07:50 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Enough that hero will win at least 55% of the time?

[/ QUOTE ]
What do you base that figure on, his possible range of hands, the pot size?

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm going off of Theory of Poker (someone tell me if I have it wrong). But on the end when your opponent checks to you, you should be if you think you'll have the best hand at least 55% of the time when he calls. You have to win more than half the time to make the bet profitable, and the extra 5% I believe accounts for when you get check-raised.

[/ QUOTE ]

I have to think that being c/r'd here is very, very rare, no?

afk · #9 03-29-2005, 07:57 PM

I'm just going from what I remember from Theory of Poker. Even if getting check-raised is not a possibility, you still have to win more than 50% of the time when called to make the bet profitable. It's possible you might have some folding equity, but if villain has an over pair I really don't see him laying it down.

suspicious_mind · #10 03-29-2005, 08:13 PM

Villain has AK or QQ and I don't think he will pay off with AK, all he can beat is...eh, nothing. Some people just can't lay ace high down though even when there is really no way he can have the best hand so I guess against a players like that you can bet. I think the chance he's got QQ and is worried about AA, KK, JJ-99 is better than him paying you off with ace high though but I might be wrong.