Raising the turn with the worse hand.

[AviD]

[ QUOTE ]
20/40 Foxwoods

My opponent in this hand is an older gentleman, very Tight-ABC, even more than me, believe it mike l.! He is chatting about Ed's book and how it's built for the game we are in, eventhough the book is tilted, "Small Stakes...." blah, blah, meow chow meow....

He's right about the game.

3 super loose limpers to me and I limp on the button w/Q [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].

SB completes, The older ABC player is in the BB and checks
We take 6 players to the flop for 5.75SBs.

Flop: A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]8 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

Checked to me and I bet, SB folds, now the older ABC check-raises and actually clears out all the limpers, I call.

Heads up to the turn for 5BBs:

Turn: T [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

He bets and I raise.

Comments?

Peace,
Joe Tall

[/ QUOTE ]

Mixed feelings. Tight ABC may 3-bet you here if he is mildly aggressive, but he may also fold if he is weak-tight. The good news, you picked up a double gutter on the turn with your flopped middle pair.

So the question is, how often will he 3-bet you here vs fold vs call.

Does your raise have any chance of him folding a hand like KJ or a naked A here? If so, I like it, but it makes your river play harder as I don't think you can bet even if it is your only chance at winning the pot, you are getting called.

But, you are calling the turn regardless on your draw to see the river and if Tight-ABC is capable of somehow raising a weaker hand than yours on this flop (I doubt it) then you have a river call without improvement.

But given Tight-ABC, I think I like calling my draw here and re-evaluating the river. On the same token if your double gutter gets there, he's probably tight enough (smart enough maybe) not to bet it in which case you will only get 1 more bet out of him.

Tough call, if you planned on calling the river regardless...I like the turn raise. Getting 3-bet sucks, but you are well within the drawing odds to the best hand. On the same token, you are getting 6:1 on your call, so the only value in raising is if you think he'll fold. I don't think you are ahead when you raise this turn vs an ABC player, but you may have a chance in convincing him he's behind and get him to fold. If not, you have outs...but have to check behind if you miss.

[TStoneMBD]

youre right to say that this play is incorrect if you were planning on folding the river unimproved. i did not consider this, and because this should be a relatively easy river fold, i reconsider my advice and feel that this turn raise is incorrect.

[highland]

[ QUOTE ]

Let me preface this by saying that I am a 3/6 player (6/12 live), so maybe my instincts about my opponents is of no use here.

IMO this play only makes sense if villain is capable of ditching TP. Hero will get there 13/45 times. If villain will dump it 32/45, then the move is +EV. This seems a bit optimistic IMO as in my experience people get married to top pair.

[/ QUOTE ]
I've only played the woods 20/40 a couple times, but there were definitely players there that thought the secret to winning at LHE was big laydowns in big pots.

That said, the number 32/45 that you state is way, way, way off. Computing these odds is generally not straightforward. In this case, we assume that villain has a junk ace, and will either fold to the raise or call-down, so it's actually relatively simple. I'm guessing it's between 10 and 15 percent, but I don't really know yet:

EV(fold) == +6BB
EV(call) == -2(32/45) + 8(13/45) == +40/45BB

the other strategy is call the turn, fold the river unimproved, raise (which he calls) the river on any improvement.

EV(strategy 2) == 8*13/45 + -1*13/45 == 91/45BB

so to see what the breakeven point is, we must solve for p, the probability that he folds.

91/45 = 40/45(1 - p) + 6(p)

91 = 40 - 40p + 270p
51 = 230p
p=51/230 = 22%

So, for this move to be profitable, given the above assumptions, he's gotta fold quite a bit, but nowhere near 32 times out of 45. My guess wasn't really very good either, though you can shave some off of 22%, because strategy 2 is pretty darn optimistic...

cheers,
highland

[dankhank]

i don't like it. if this guy is able to accurately read the game's texture then i assume he's able to apply the proper strategy here, which, imo, is to call down with top pair in a semi-large pot. i think it's highly likely that he calls the turn (even if just to hit two pair on the river) and then you're in a tough spot. is your plan here to fire on the river no matter what?

this is a sophisticated move that will work often enough to be worthwhile, but (as unfounded as this sounds) my read on this particular older tight-abc gentleman playing foxwoods 20/40 is that he's calling you down.

the catch is, if you don't raise the turn, what do you do? give up and fold? peel one off and fold an empty river?

are you raising here because you lack a better option?

[andyfox]

ABC means playing by the proverbial book. I suppose Lee's book qualifies.

An ABC player's plays are usually just what they seem: a pre-flop raise means a premium hand, a limp means a quality but not great one; a post-flop check, call, bet or raise normally means exactly what the action is advertsied as.

I can't speak for anything other than B&M play in So. California. My sense is that solid A-B-C play will win money up to 9-18, and possibly 20-40. Break even at 20-40. -EV at 40-80 and above.

[Roy Hobbs]

good play.

What are you going to do if he calls and you don't improve on the river and it's checked to you?

RH

[Joe Tall]

[ QUOTE ]
expert move.

abc tight player will fold better 1 pair hands and will almost certainly not reraise you without 3 of a kind. the key to making this play profitable is that the abc player is not aggressive enough, and youre punishing him for this trait.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't know why you back tracked as this is nearly the exact thoughts I had, although, 2-pair 3-bets but he'd have to make that on the turn as I he'd bet out with a flopped two.

Peace,
Joe Tall

[Joe Tall]

Yeah, he folded and moaned something to his book club about top pair.

Thanks for all your replies,
Joe Tall

[PokerBob]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

Let me preface this by saying that I am a 3/6 player (6/12 live), so maybe my instincts about my opponents is of no use here.

IMO this play only makes sense if villain is capable of ditching TP. Hero will get there 13/45 times. If villain will dump it 32/45, then the move is +EV. This seems a bit optimistic IMO as in my experience people get married to top pair.

[/ QUOTE ]
I've only played the woods 20/40 a couple times, but there were definitely players there that thought the secret to winning at LHE was big laydowns in big pots.

That said, the number 32/45 that you state is way, way, way off. Computing these odds is generally not straightforward. In this case, we assume that villain has a junk ace, and will either fold to the raise or call-down, so it's actually relatively simple. I'm guessing it's between 10 and 15 percent, but I don't really know yet:

EV(fold) == +6BB
EV(call) == -2(32/45) + 8(13/45) == +40/45BB

the other strategy is call the turn, fold the river unimproved, raise (which he calls) the river on any improvement.

EV(strategy 2) == 8*13/45 + -1*13/45 == 91/45BB

so to see what the breakeven point is, we must solve for p, the probability that he folds.

91/45 = 40/45(1 - p) + 6(p)

91 = 40 - 40p + 270p
51 = 230p
p=51/230 = 22%

So, for this move to be profitable, given the above assumptions, he's gotta fold quite a bit, but nowhere near 32 times out of 45. My guess wasn't really very good either, though you can shave some off of 22%, because strategy 2 is pretty darn optimistic...

cheers,
highland

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks. My math ignored that there was money in the pot already. I am not very bright.

[jayheaps]

i like the play, however, I am not so sure that a Q was a clean out for you in case he has AQ or AK.