Who gonna call you?

[QTip]

[ QUOTE ]
what's the deal with the 1st one? that can't be right.

[/ QUOTE ]

I've got to say this is right. Would someone else please try their PokerStove to see if something's wrong with mine or if there's a bug in it for this.

Hero's hand
Range for PFR - BB
and 2 randoms

and the board as it is on the turn...

I have hero at 0%...there's just no way it's true.

I plugged in QTo for one of the UTG and went with 1 random hand, and I ended up with hero at like 20%.

Something seems to go wrong when you put 2 random hands in there.

[Chris Dow]

Raising the flop prevents them from leading into you without 100% certainty that you are beat with a measly 77 on the turn.

[suspicious_mind]

I agree with most of what you said. I don´t think you can fold because the pot is to big and I think you will have the best hand here a good enough % of the time assuming UTG and UTG+1 are loose players who doesn´t necceserilly need a flush draw or J to be calling and BB would bet AK, AQ. You pobably won´t win this pot 25% of the time though but with the money in the pot I think you have to go for it. I do think it´s close though and it´s possible it´s better to just fold.

When you raise on the flop you will pay about 2BB´s to get to showdown so that means that with the money in the pot plus some action later on you will have to win about 20% of the time to make raising on the flop and betting any turn +ev compared to folding.

Should you call or raise on the flop if you are going to play? I´m gonna go with the raise here, you get reliable information from the BB and you take the initiative which in IMO will make the turn easier to play than just caling and reavaluating on he turn. If you think calling will give you good information to make the right decision on the turn then calling might be better because you will save money the times you are able to get away from your hand and if you have the best hand you will get greater equity on the money going in on the turn than on the flop(does that make sense?) if you guess wrong you are throwing away 2 dead BB´s though.

A few dissagreements.

If I´m checked to on the turn I´m betting anything but an A, I am betting the Ac though because I´m hoping BB will check-raise with an A without the flushdraw and hopefully knock out a small club in someones hand. I´m betting the club because there is a chance I still have the best hand and if I do I want to protect the pot, if I´m raised I´m drawing dead so there is no need to pay to hit the river.

I think you should check behind on the river most of the time, I think there is to good a chance someone has a weak J etc and what kind of hands can pay you off? you are betting the turn because you want to protect the pot against draws when you have the best hand right? If they called with a pair on the turn it´s pretty likely it was a J. You would have to rate your hand to be best 33-50%+ of the times you get called to bet the river and I don´t think it is. I guess it depends on the situation though, if you are heads up with the BB on the river and you think he will pay you off with ace high betting looks right.

[ErrantNight]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
raising so that the hand becomes "easier" to play is not a reason for raising.

[/ QUOTE ]

Strongly disagree, particularly if you are trying to make the decision between call and raise.

[/ QUOTE ]

making -ev decisions on the flop to avoid making a tougher decision later isn't good in my book. learn how to play the turn, which you've essentially said you won't/can't do.

if he cut this off at the flop and asked for his flop action, it would be a lot easier to hold the discussion about whether to call or raise and what to do in the event of particular turn cards. since his question was on the river, it's muddled up the discussion of the two previous streets.

[/ QUOTE ]

ok, remember im not that other guy, and i dont avoid difficult situations. I play good poker, and im funny too, so dont throw me in his crowd [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]


And i am honestly being swayed. Im doing some more math, and i threw my calculator against the wall last night, so its taking a while. Also, i am reviewing all the pro-call responses.

Errant, i do have to say that no matter what you do on this turn, the idea that you will have any clue about wether or not it is the correct action is going to be false more than 75% of the time. AK will bet into you. A crub draw will be when they are checked to. The poster will try to steal. You are not championing the "i make tough plays" crowd, you are championing the "I want to make a decision on the turn" crowd. Sillypants.

peace

john nickle

[/ QUOTE ]

lol, i love you john, but i gotta disagree just a lil bit... i never said i was advocating tough decisions... i just said i didn't think you shouldn't avoid them at the expense of making poor decisions prior.

Do you really think AK leads unimproved against three callers on an ugly board with a crub frush draw?

I don't see how raising makes any decision you make on the turn easier EXCEPT folding, in which case you've just invested anywhere from an extra .5 to 1.5 bets (if you get check/raised after betting the turn, because you CAN NOT give a free card here) to find this out, and done absolutely nothing to increase your chances of winning this pot.

and, for the record, i specifically told Dow he should check out SSH's section on waiting for the turn.

[ErrantNight]

why?

[QTip]

[ QUOTE ]
assuming UTG and UTG+1 are loose players who doesn´t necceserilly need a flush draw or J to be calling and BB would bet AK, AQ.

[/ QUOTE ]

LOL!! [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]

[ErrantNight]

[ QUOTE ]
Since, as I admitted earlier in this hand, I would only continue on in this hand from the flop if I felt 77 was best on the flop. Yes. Please don't forget that I was in the fold if you're not raising camp. Anyway Errant, you make points I disagree with in "proving" whatever you just tried to prove. Therefore I don't buy the "proof" and you don't find that satisfactory. Ok.

[/ QUOTE ]

would you mind being specific for once? what points do you disagree with. every time you get really called out you run away. have you even ADDRESSED the equity edge (or lack thereof) issue?

[ErrantNight]

so you're comfortable putting in 2 more bb's to get to the river when you might be behind and your opponents are drawing at roughly 15 outs, twice?

[jason_t]

I obtain the same, but that seems completely absurd.

[QTip]

Gotta be a gliche in PokerStove...I'll drop them an email.