Flopped nut straight, then saw a scary turn

[Cornell Fiji]

I don't really like the way that you played the hand on any street.

This is a flop that I want to make sure doesn't check around. I have some fear of the flush draw but the real reason I want to lead out is to make sure that we are playing for a big pot. In addition, hands like any pp, flush draw, and a tricky AK might raise you here (in which case I would either 3-bet or open push the turn.) In addition a checkraise shows a ton of stregnth on the flop and could end your action.

The turn card isn't good but getting 2:1 on your hand here I would still want to get all in. I wouldnt want to give a flushdraw a free card so I would probably bet 1/2 pot here and all in on the river

Given the action to you I would go all in and expect to lose 1/3 of the time but I think the passive way that you played the hand is long run -EV.

-Steve

[PeteGI]

It seems to me that you are far ahead in this hand. The hand I would put him on is Ace 5, possible with the draw as well. He figures you for two pair or the straight, so it is a question of whether he wants to try and draw against you. When the 5 comes out and you check, it gives him the green light to bet his top set and try to take the pot.

[Rick Nebiolo]

[ QUOTE ]
It seems to me that you are far ahead in this hand. The hand I would put him on is Ace 5, possible with the draw as well. He figures you for two pair or the straight, so it is a question of whether he wants to try and draw against you. When the 5 comes out and you check, it gives him the green light to bet his top set and try to take the pot.

[/ QUOTE ]

With $450 and change villain doesn't really have a monster stack relative to the $4 big blind (for example, 100 times the blind is the Party Poker restricted buy in). Because of the small stack sizes, I would expect he would have some gamble even if he is very tight and/or solid. So IMHO villain flopping a set is at most a small favorite.

I'm not sure that A5 is the exact hand but Hero has to realize he is ahead (and can stay ahead) of quite a few hands. Hero just has to estimate how possible and look at the size of the pot. In this case Hero is close to potstuck. There is about $290 already in and villain only has about $300 more. So Hero is at least break even if he wins one time in three. I think he is close to even money so the money should go in.

~ Rick

[aggie]

[ QUOTE ]
There is about $290 already in and villain only has about $300 more. So Hero is at least break even if he wins one time in three. I think he is close to even money so the money should go in.


[/ QUOTE ]

Yea...this is probably the most key point in the entire thread....It's why i don't like FF getting away from this hand.