Was this played poorly?

[TheUsher]

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I bet that amount to try and make them fold because there were a lot of people out there and they had folded previous hands to a big bet. I was thinking that I had fold equity with that size bet and were it not for the slow playing KK, I believe it would have worked to perfection. But as you know the problem with fold equity is not knowing with a hundred percent what their cards are. Since everyone limped I did not think that AA, KK, QQ, JJ or even TT was a possible combination as those hands would have been raised most of the time. Had someone raise preflop I would not have bet the flop I would have checked to see where I stood and folded if someone made a big bet.

Thanks for everyone's comments.

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I don't like the overbet, but the real question is... do you ever overbet the pot like that when you have a real hand? If not, be prepared to plug a leak when you move up.

[PktAcesSoWht]

depending on the hand and circumstances absolutely I do. To achieve maximum fold equity you have to overbet the pot.

[TheUsher]

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depending on the hand and circumstances absolutely I do. To achieve maximum fold equity you have to overbet the pot.

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I almost never overbet the pot, as usually the case with a real hand, I'm trying to encourage mathematically -EV calls. Only time I'll overbet is if I've seen the opponent make stupid calls earlier in the game where I'm almost certain he'll call this one. Maybe this is where you are wrong in the assessment of this hand, as an overbet here is worthless. If you're resorting to overbet the hand just to steal the pot, it's a poor bet. You don't have to win every pot you're in to win a SNG, just the last one.

[curtains]

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depending on the hand and circumstances absolutely I do. To achieve maximum fold equity you have to overbet the pot.

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Of course by overbetting the pot you will make your oppoennts fold more often. However sometimes that amount will be very slight, meanwhile you are risking a lot more chips. I truly think this is a very poor bet.

Also to say that your opponents raise was just trying to "scare you off the hand", is very paranoid thinking. Why would your opponent even dream that it's possible to bluff someone out who bet 210 into a 120 chip pot. I think there's avery little chance that they wouldnt have a real hand in that situation.

[PktAcesSoWht]

First, I wanted to address something that I had forgot to say earlier. if you were in the BB and you had 5 limpers in front of you, first round even 10/20 blinds, if you bet 200 and had a fold equity of only 50 percent, and only won 1/3 of the time it would be a +EV move. So when you talk about overbetting the pot, just remember you don't have to win everytime for it to be a +EV.

.5*100=t50 33%(50%)300=t49.5 win when called,
66%(50%)-200=-t66 you lose when called
T50+T49.5=T99.5 when they fold or you win when called minus T66 that you lose when called and you lose. it comes out to +33.5.

As you can see, an overbet can be a +EV move and worth making. My JTs against a random pair of cards will win more at %33 of the time against 4 people so I don't think that these numbers were that far off. This was the purpose of betting the amount I did. Unfortunately against KK you have 0% fold equity, and thus you are in trouble.

well, the reason I thought about the scare tactic is the fact that I have had several people come over the top like that when I bet out.

I agree with pretty much everything people have said here. The funny thing is if it weren't for the slow play of the KK, I believe the majority of times I would have one this pot right then and there.

I think my only error in this hand was not checking the turn just to be sure of where I stood. I had great implied odds if I hit my straight on the turn and as it was I thought I had 10 outs as long as I was not up against the overpair, which, unfortunately was the case. I should have checked the turn and folded to a bet, because that would have shown that he was not concerned with the J because he had a higher pair.

you have to vary your play, and as such that is why I played this hand, and played it in this way. I almost never play hands out of position but occasionally I will play suited connectors from any position.

Thanks again for your thoughts and comments. I appreciate it.

[adanthar]

[ QUOTE ]
First, I wanted to address something that I had forgot to say earlier. if you were in the BB and you had 5 limpers in front of you, first round even 10/20 blinds, if you bet 200 and had a fold equity of only 50 percent, and only won 1/3 of the time it would be a +EV move. So when you talk about overbetting the pot, just remember you don't have to win everytime for it to be a +EV.

.5*100=t50 33%(50%)300=t49.5 win when called,
66%(50%)-200=-t66 you lose when called
T50+T49.5=T99.5 when they fold or you win when called minus T66 that you lose when called and you lose. it comes out to +33.5.

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Until you call the guy that minimum raised your overbet, then shoveled the rest of your chips in when you hit a jack.

So, your calculation is off and you lose about -800 when called, making it a -EV play. Do you see why?

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As you can see, an overbet can be a +EV move and worth making.

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Yes, it can, just not here.

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I agree with pretty much everything people have said here. The funny thing is if it weren't for the slow play of the KK, I believe the majority of times I would have one this pot right then and there.

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"If only one of the three people I was betting into, including the blinds, didn't have a hand on this semi-coordinated flop, the quarter of my stack I put in would win a t120 pot [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]" has got to be one of the worst excuses for a terrible play I've ever read on this forum.

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I think my only error in this hand was not checking the turn just to be sure of where I stood. I had great implied odds if I hit my straight on the turn and as it was I thought I had 10 outs as long as I was not up against the overpair, which, unfortunately was the case.

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Really? You have ten outs against 97, 75, 86, 99, 77, 55, etc., all of which play this hand completely identically?

Your only error in this hand was playing it like a fish from start to finish.

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you have to vary your play

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No, you don't; you'll never see any of these people again. Which is a good thing, really, because the one or two observant people at the table already have "LAGgy fish" all over their notes.

[curtains]

Another important thing to note, Let's assume I raised preflop and my opponent calls, and I miss the flop. If I overbet the flop and my opponent folds 65% of the time, It's a +EV bet. However usually I can acheive the same result by betting signifigantly less, and now my opponent may fold somewhere from 60-65% of the time.

My point is that overbetting the pot may be +EV sometimes, however betting less will often be even higher +EV.

[RiverDood]

Devastatingly accurate analysis.

I thought the pre-flop limp was defensible. It's a little loose and if there's a raiser after you, you're in trouble. But with blinds that low, you can hope for a chance to see a cheap flop in multiway action -- when JTs could play very well. You got lucky and ended up with just that.

The giant flop bet makes me cringe, though. Now the flop has missed you, and you've got no certainty that it's missed everyone else. To go back to old-time maxims, you're betting a lumberyard to win a toothpick.

KK took you apart, but so would have 55, 77, 79s, J9 and several other plausible hands. I'll echo other posters: Once you're at the flop, the two main choices are to check/fold, or to take one more stab at it, betting 2/3 of the pot, and not chasing the pot afterward if you get action.

The math on the turn bet is accurate but only in the sense of making the best of a bad situation. Did you go into this hand saying: "I'd like to work this hand so that by the turn, I'm a 3:1 dog with so much money already in the pot that my only hope of salvation is to push -- and hope to hit a 10-outer (or perhaps a 2-outer or a zero-outer) on the river?"

Nope.

All that said, I hope this doesn't sound like piling on. You had the guts to post a problem hand, and the wisdom to know that at some point, you must have picked the wrong fork on the decision tree.

If we're getting a little blunt in our replies, it's just because we think you can sharpen up your game a lot more by rethinking these kinds of hands at the pre-flop or flop stage. That's all

[PktAcesSoWht]

Thank you all so much for taking the time to share your thoughts on this hand. I really really appreciate it.

brutal honesty is always welcomed. you are all class acts. thanks