River Decision.....I should fold this right?

nickey009 · #1 03-26-2005, 08:25 PM

I'm 3 tabling so my read is not good on this guy. when I was making my decision I was going through all the possible AX he could have. I thought if he hit 2 pair anywhere he would have re-raised me at some point unless he hit the J. Thoughts? should I have just folded the river?

Party Poker Pot-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (8 handed) converter

UTG ($31.85)
UTG+1 ($23.4)
MP1 ($60.3)
MP2 ($24.2)
CO ($32.94)
Button ($26.85)
SB ($20.48)
Hero ($46.3)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
2 folds, MP1 calls $0.25, MP2 calls $0.25, CO calls $0.25, 2 folds, Hero checks.

Flop: ($1.10) A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (4 players)
Hero checks, MP1 checks, MP2 checks, CO bets $1.1, Hero raises to $3.3, MP1 folds, MP2 folds, CO calls $2.20.

Turn: ($7.70) T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets $4.41, CO calls $4.41.

River: ($16.52) J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $15, Hero calls $15.

Final Pot: $46.52

RED FACE · #2 03-26-2005, 08:42 PM

Tough call. I don't play pl but think I would've put in a blocking/value bet on river of $5 or $6 because you're out of position. You showed weakness so now your opp has 2 possible motivations for betting large: you're weak and can be bluffed or he has hit his 2nd pair. Tough being out of position so I'd keep betting to look like I'm trying to extract more from him. Of course if he did hit AJ and he size raises my $5-$6 blocking bet I may be trapped into a call. I may lose the farm but I wont be bluffed.

MathMagician · #3 03-26-2005, 08:56 PM

I'd call. He may have a busted flush draw and be trying to buy the pot, AQ is also a possibility. You are probably beat (I'm thinking AJ), but I'd call barring any read on the villian.

xorbie · #4 03-26-2005, 09:27 PM

I think you're about 50/50 between an induced bluff and a hand that made it there on the river (possibly turn). The only thing I'd be worried about here is AJ, you'd have heard from AT on the turn I think. 78[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] is really the only other possible hand that has you beat, whereas a limped AQ (rare), any low A (it's low stakes party, you will see this) or a missed flush draw will play this way.

nickey009 · #5 03-26-2005, 09:32 PM

Yeah, a blocking bet would definetly have been the better way to go. The check definetly showed weakness but really the only thing I was worried about was the AJ. He'd have to have exactly that hand or a set or something. Or it's a pure bluff.