30k hand stats @ .50-1 time to move up?

[chris_a]

A couple comments:

1) You can still run well or run badly after 30k hands. Figure out your confidence intervals and you will see this very clearly.

2) You are folding more winners than you think with that WTSD #. Maybe the fact that you are running well was unfounded.

3) Won $ when you see the flop being low doesn't mean that you can't be running well. It could mean a number of things, including that that you aren't going to the showdown enough or you aren't raising to protect your hands enough.

4) About the fact that your winrate should be 3+. This is unfounded.

[Shillx]

Dude you are running good. It isn't a good or bad thing but it is certainly something that is welcomed. But things will not always be as good in the future and you need to plug some holes now to keep the downswings at a minimum.

1) You are folding too many winners AND you have a nice winrate. Most people who fold too many winners go broke or break even. It isn't always because the EV losses in those hands alone but you can go on tilt after you muck a winner in a big pot and go on to steam away hundreds of big bets (maybe in one session or maybe over a long period of time).

2) You are not getting maximum value from your hands before the flop. If you raised preflop with 3-4% more hands, that equates to about .6 BB/100 more EV in your pocket (if you know when and what to raise). This type of EV is tough to make up after the flop, so take it when you can.

Brad

[PuckNPoker]

[ QUOTE ]

2: Configure poker tracker so that pre-flop numbers are NOT included in aggression.

This will allow you to use PlayerView with more accuracy when determining your opponents' aggression.

--Dave.

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How does one do this?

[wabe]

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[ QUOTE ]

2: Configure poker tracker so that pre-flop numbers are NOT included in aggression.

This will allow you to use PlayerView with more accuracy when determining your opponents' aggression.

--Dave.

[/ QUOTE ]

How does one do this?

[/ QUOTE ]

Uncheck "Include Pre-flop numbers in Total Aggression Factor calculation" box under Ring Statistics->General Info->More Detail....

[PuckNPoker]

Thank you very much.

[Mr_Oog]

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Aggression numbers can be very deceiving. They do not necessarily mean you are aggressive or passive. They are calculated by fold+raise/ call.

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As always, I could be wrong but IIRC the formula for aggression is Bet + Raise / Call.

[chris_a]

Yes, its:

AF = (Number of Bets + Number of Raises)/(Number of Calls)

Folding has no direct affect on your aggression stats.

[droolie]

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Aggression numbers can be very deceiving. They do not necessarily mean you are aggressive or passive. They are calculated by fold+raise/ call.

[/ QUOTE ]

As always, I could be wrong but IIRC the formula for aggression is Bet + Raise / Call.

[/ QUOTE ]

You're right. I'm a tard.

[No_Stake]

so if i had raised 3-4 percent more my winrate should be 3.3bb/100?
ok so i suck but im running good ill play 10k more hands and play like a maniac and post those stats here lol gl to me

[droolie]

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so if i had raised 3-4 percent more my winrate should be 3.3bb/100?
ok so i suck but im running good ill play 10k more hands and play like a maniac and post those stats here lol gl to me

[/ QUOTE ]
No one is telling you to play like a maniac. You just need to have a better understanding of what situations are higher EV pf to raise than call. All Shillx is saying is that when you fail to push your edge by limping when you should raise you lose money you cannot make back later. It's akin to not doubling down when you have 11 in blackjack. You might make up for some of the loss through the fact that your hand is disguised and you lose less when you have to fold but not enough to warrant limping when raising is clearly the better choice.