SSHE p.148: Continuing with marginal hands

[rmarotti]

And we see demonstrated in bright vibrant colors why hot/cold simulations are not always very helpful.

[That guy]

personally speaking, with a 2-flush on board -- I think mucking is not a terrible default play here. but raising is slightly better IF who know who the button is...

look at his stats. do you know him? does he know what he is doing? does he bet when checked to? if he is a loose player, I am not giving him credit for much and then I am raising.

also, if you feel very sure your raise won't drive others out then there is no point in raising and so calling to see the turn is ok. if its a brick, you can bet. if it brings you a straight draw and no 3-flush, you can now continue with a bet (or check and call if raised on the flop).

but generally speaking, you must raise here so that you can analyze the hand properly and make overcards pay. if you don't raise, you are just flying blind with a marginal hand.

you did hit this flop (albeit marginally) and it is quite possible everyone else missed (likely given the action).

this took me a while to figure out but you have to just accept the fact that often you just need to invest extra bets on the flop to play the hand properly. your bankroll is going to fluctuate more when you do this -- you just have to get used to it.

the fact of the matter is that there is a pretty good chance the button has nothing or merely a flush draw. or something like 66/A5. from his point of view, he might just be investing 1 small bet on the off chance that everyone folds here... he doesn't need for this to happen all that often for it to be a decent move.

but overall, a read here is crucial... if you muck too many hands that have winning chances when the pot is big, you just can't win very much at hold em.

[Ice]

I use this play ALL THE TIME and have been very successful with it.First everyone checked to the button indicating noone has much. The button could easily be on a steal so i want to improve my chances of winning this decent size pot.

Sure i might get checkraised and sure the button might have a bettor hand.But if they do it costs me a couple of extra bets if they don't it makes me me a ton.Ice

[jordanx]

You need to play according to the situation you're in (which, btw, the games you describe are exactly like live small stakes games).

In the hand example given, if raising won't eliminate players, possibly buy you a free turn card or you strongly suspect that two pair will not win you this pot, then you should fold.

There are players who are aggressive for the sake of being aggressive. Maniacs. And you'll find one or two at a table from time to time. But rarely will everyone at the table be a maniac.

You need to factor your opponents into every desicions, but if you write off the concept of protecting your hand or raising the flop for info or free cards, then your game will suffer.

[PuckNPoker]

The pot is rather large, but I think this is a muck with a raise in front of you. You have to discount your 8 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] out, and I think any "made" hand you have has a lot of redraws to it. These type of hands are very difficult, I think if that 5 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] was a 5 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] or just a non-club I'd have a lot better time of it. I dont think mucking is a horrible play here but maybe im weak-tight.

[gmanko]

I agree that computer simulations don't show everything since they assume that you will stay until the end, but that is part of my point. The best-case scenario of 5 random hands gives you an edge only if you stay to the end. Even if you luck out and hit your hand, what happens if there is a possible straight and flush, or a 4 straight, or a 4 flush on the river and you get bet off your hand?

I am going to try to deal out some hands tonight and see what happens in real game situations.

Also, a ten doesn't have to 3-bet you, in a loose passive game as described they could just call the raise (and often do).

As for the possible hands against you, with 5 opponents it is very likely (practically certain) that someone has EITHER a ten, OR a better 7 OR a flush draw OR a 2-way straight draw. Even if you are taking money from some of your opponents you are almost definitely giving it to someone else. Plus you don't have proper odds on your raise.

As for the claim that this is as bad as capping with 72o, that may have been going too far, but thinking back on it you are putting in 4 small bets before the flop (2 big bets). On the flop the pot will be as bit as it was in the SSHE example. If you make 2 pair or better without the other hands improving you almost definitely will get unlimited action, and if you are in a game with no cap heads-up you could bust him if the pair of kings takes the hint. Otherwise you will definitely fold (unless you believe in raising marginal hands for value when you are beat, as in the example).

Compare this to the hand being discussed, at the point you have to act on the flop you have to put in one big bet already if you raise, and even then you are completely unsure of the value of your hand. Do you check the turn if you miss and give a flush draw a free card? If you hit the 8 of clubs, do you bet it? If you don't improve on the river do you call a bet?

Each event is unlikely in itself, but if you are in a burning restaurant eating a piece of tainted chicken, then start choking on a bone, your chances of surviving any one of them is pretty decent, but not if they happen together. This is that hand.

[gmanko]

RAKE!!!!! RAKE!!!!!!

I forgot to even think about rake effects here.
I wonder if anyone ever figured out the actual EV/hand for this example. It may be ones of those examples where theoretically its a good play under the assumptions given (basically, if none of your opponents has even a draw and the preflop raiser is bluffing), then raising is a good play. If only I could just get my "peek" button to work<g>.

This is definitely a fold. If a call would close out the betting I would do it. If I had a backdoor flush draw I would do it (if the T were diamonds instead of hearts).

Plus, there are so many mistakes that your opponents can make you make here if you end up with a second best hand that I would dump this in a second.

[gmanko]

Not valid - if get two callers on a check raise they almost definitely have something, put in a weak ten and a flush draw and your chances of winning actually drop.

903 games 0.005 secs 180,600 games/sec

Board: Th 7c 5c
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) / tie (%)

Hand 1: 14.8394 % [ 00.15 00.00 ] { 8d7d }
Hand 2: 48.1728 % [ 00.48 00.00 ] { QcJc }
Hand 3: 36.9878 % [ 00.37 00.00 ] { JsTs }

[bernie]

This is an easy raise in this spot.

[ QUOTE ]
If I think unimproved sevens might be good, I'm stuck calling a reraise, calling the turn, and calling the river, even if my hand doesn't improve.

[/ QUOTE ]

Isn't this much better to do with fewer opponents? You're trying to get it HU. Which limits your losses quite a bit than if it were multiway. If you're hand is better than the others holding overcards, knock them out. Don't give them odds to call. What is a safe card for you on the turn? Not many. Lessen the chances.

It also can make the hand easier to play.

Also, if there is significant action behind you, be prepared to possibly fold. (unless it is HU) A double c/r is a very strong move if another player gets active.

[ QUOTE ]
I'd call, or maybe even fold if I think a checkraise on my left is likely.


[/ QUOTE ]

If you really think a c/r is coming, you fold. In this situation, 'you' want to be the one checkraising. Not waiting for someone else to do it for you.

Ed explains this concept very well. I'd suggest rereading it.

[ QUOTE ]
I've only been playing poker for about three months, but I've been steadily winning by playing weak-tight at 2/4 and 3/6 tables full of players even worse than me, and in fact making a modest living at it.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is a small sample size. 3 whole months? At least you're honest about it.

b