|
|
#1
03-24-2005, 11:43 AM
|
|||
|
|||
me vs. a thinking lag
Party Poker 10/20 6max hand from memory:
I'm UTG w/ AQo and open raise. Folded around to what I perceive to be a somewhat tricky some what lagish player in the big blind who calls. Flop comes J53 check bet call. Turn is another J. check check. I think I might be ahead here, but I also think he would love to check/raise me when that second jack falls. I don't know what I'd do if facing a check/raise, so I check behind planning on calling a river bet. River is a 6 and the villian checks...do you 
|
|
#2
03-24-2005, 12:08 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: me vs. a thinking lag
The question being do you value-bet your ace, or not? Because obviously that's the only thing he's calling with here -- a weaker ace. (Maybe KQ, but that seems like a huge stretch.) I think I just check behind, but I have to believe that if this guy had ANYTHING he'd bet the river expecting you to call down with A-high. So I think you're probably beating him, and it's damn close to being a good value-bet.
|
|
#4
03-24-2005, 12:31 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: me vs. a thinking lag
This is pretty exactly what I was thinking. My hand-reading is just a little better than mediocre, but here's what I was thinking.
1. Does he have a jack? If he has a jack, he would most likely bet out or check/raise the flop. Check/calling the flop seems to make a jack less likely especially since it's quite likely I have overcards to that flop. 2. Did he pair one of the little cards on the flop? Maybe. The check/call would make some sense considering I raised UTG, I could easily have a mid to high pocket pair or paired the jack. The turn jack would have been a good card for him, and he might have tried for a check/raise with his pair. However when I check behind and the river comes a blank, does he really put me on a pair or better? It seems likely he would bet out on the river expecting me to call with Ace high. 3. Did he pair a 6 on the river? Same as the above point, he would more than likely bet out and expect me to call with ace high. 4. Does he have a low pocket pair? Again a river bet would make the most sense. 5. Does he have a monster? Did he flop a low set turned full house? I dunno, it seems more likely he'd have tried to go to war on the flop hoping I had a high pocket pair in my hand or AJ. Did he river a straight? I dunno...but it seems very unlikely. It smells strongly of Ax with x < a jack, or Kx to me. Thoughts?
|
|
#6
03-24-2005, 12:38 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: me vs. a thinking lag
[ QUOTE ]
It smells strongly of Ax with x < a jack, or Kx to me. [/ QUOTE ] i would think Ax or a small pp. i've seen quite a few people call down from the blinds against a pre flop raiser with ragged looking boards. maybe an Ax that paired up. i would check behind. i think you lose if he calls you here.
|
|
#8
03-24-2005, 02:10 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: me vs. a thinking lag
[ QUOTE ]
1. Does he have a jack? If he has a jack, he would most likely bet out or check/raise the flop. Check/calling the flop seems to make a jack less likely especially since it's quite likely I have overcards to that flop. [/ QUOTE ] check/calling the flop does not reduce the likelihood of a j at all. many, many 10/20 players wait until the turn to checkraise top pair, even with a garbage kicker, and especially heads up.
|
|
#9
03-24-2005, 02:15 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: me vs. a thinking lag
[ QUOTE ]
Flop comes J53 check bet call. Turn is another J. check check. I think I might be ahead here, but I also think he would love to check/raise me when that second jack falls. I don't know what I'd do if facing a check/raise, so I check behind planning on calling a river bet. [/ QUOTE ] will this player checkraise this turn with garbage? if so i dont mind the turn check. however, if he is the type who will only checkraise here with a pair or better then you should surely bet the turn.
|
|
#10
03-24-2005, 02:49 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: me vs. a thinking lag
[ QUOTE ]
Do you really think a thinking player with loose aggressive tendencies checks this river with a small pocket pair? [/ QUOTE ] probably not. but i think it's possible. he calls on the flop. i would think he would probably raise here with a pp or if he paired the board and call with a monster or 2 overs. 2nd jack hits and he checks the turn, still possible he has a monster and hopes you have an overpair or maybe 3 jacks, or he still has overs or low/mid pp. once he checks the river, it seems like you're in the clear. it seems like he'd bet if he had a legitimate hand. however, i don't think that a bet from you on the river does any good. what do you think?
|
 |
|
|
Linear Mode
