AA - was this a weak play?

[The Deuce]

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (6 max, 6 handed) converter

UTG ($98.5)
Hero ($79.15)
CO ($82.55)
Button ($112.3)
SB :#A500AF(Villain)/ ($155.8)
BB ($117)

Preflop: Hero is MP with A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. SB :#A500AF(Villain)/ posts a blind of $0.5.
<font color="#CC3333">UTG raises to $3</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $10</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, SB :#A500AF(Villain)/ (poster) calls $9.50, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG calls $7.

Flop: ($31) 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Villain bets $30</font>, UTG folds, Hero folds.

Final Pot: $61

I had played with this guy for an hour or so and he seemed pretty solid, not particularly hyper-aggressive. My table image is TAG.

BTW, this is my first post, although I've been lurking here for ages. Thanks in advance for any responses.

[fuzzbox]

Yes, weak I feel.

He can do that with 88-KK along with 55, A5c, A6c, a set, two pair any good big club draw (for two overs and clubs).

Call, if the turn is a blank, then consider pushing (especially if he backs off). You could be beat, but I think you are ahead or 50/50 more often. I would call, and on a blank turn take a look a his action and make a decision there.

Course, you dont really have a whole lot of stack for that, but I cant see how you are *sure* you are beat, cos a lot of ppl will try to take you of two big cards on a flop like this. And then again, a lot of ppl will lead out with a set !

I say call.

[betgo]

Very weak. Villain probably has a flush draw or an overpair. Do you put him on a set or a straight? Two pair seems unlikely. I would push. If you call and push on the turn, it will make it difficult for villain if he has a flush draw.

[ThePortuguee]

This is a tricky hand. Chances are pretty good you're behind a stronger player--if he has a set, I like his play a lot, because it's pretty easy to put you on KK-AA, and he can expect almost every player on Party Poker to stick his stack in the middle with an overpair. The tendency is for people to overplay AA and KK, and you may have saved yourself a huge pot, so your fold isn't terrible. He doesnt appear to be afraid of AA or KK, but I think his bet is one that he's making expecting you to come back over the top. So in a strong game, I dont hate the play, though I'd be careful of making it too often lest peopel start pushing you off a very strong hand, very often.

That, however, is general information about a strong game, and the problem is this: it's probably impossible to assume you're playing against strong players in a Party Poker Table. So you're left in a tough situation. No matter what he's got, his bet on the flop is a very strong play, because when you come over the top of a 6BB raise for another 14BB, your hand isnt' too well disguised. He's trying to tell you he's not afraid of what you pretty obviously have. This, again, is why I dont hate your fold. But the real problem is that he can also have these hands:

88-KK, in which case he probably puts you on an overpair below his, or AK, and is hoping to take down the pot right there.

A strong flush draw, and maybe, though probably not a straight draw, in which case he hopes he can scare you off an overpair or AK, but if not still creates a huge pot for him to win shoudl he make his hand, especially if the other player overcalls. I say he probably doesnt have a straight draw because he'd have to have a couple of unconnected low cards. It's also possible he's got a straight-flush draw an a pair, like a 5-6 of clubs, and he's a good, creative player hoping to break you. Honestly, against particularly strong players, this is one of the more likely hands.

If he has any of hte above, you're obviously looking to get your stack in the middle. If he has a made straight, you're happy for him, if he called 20BB preflop with 5-8 or 3-5, congradulations, it's not positive EV, and you just got screwed, it happens. The only hand you're really behind here is a set. So the question is how strong a possibility is taht?

It's actualyl a pretty strong possibility, per my analysis above, but there's just too strong a possibility you have a player makign a strong play with a draw or an overpair worse than yours. Your fold is fine, but it's probably better to push the flop or the turn. If you're not folidng, your stack shoudl end up in the middle. Period. I like this strong play here because I'd expect most players to check-push a set, which isn't too deceptive but hopes to win another big bet frmo you.

That's a really long and sorta convoluted analysis, I hope it offers some help.

PS - It just occurred to me that yuor blind structures was .5/1 not .25/.5, so whenever I talk in terms of BB above, cut thos enumbers in half. Sorry about that mistake.

[RiverFenix]

Weak, especially if he seems like a solid player. He made a play at you and you backed off like he expected you to. You were holding holding top pair and top club, the range of hands you could put him on cant be that specific to laydown your holding.

[pho75]

Here are my thoughts what do you think?
If he seems solid like you said and views you as TAG, I would be suprised if he had anything other than KK. Both your stacks and his are too small to call a raise and reraise with small PPs or SCs. He is putting himself in the middle of the two raisers, UTG could raises again for all he knows.

If all this is correct, then wouldn't it be better to put him all-in now before another club comes on the turn?

Does this logic sound right, or is it too simplistic?

[The Deuce]

[ QUOTE ]
Here are my thoughts what do you think?
If he seems solid like you said and views you as TAG, I would be suprised if he had anything other than KK. Both your stacks and his are too small to call a raise and reraise with small PPs or SCs. He is putting himself in the middle of the two raisers, UTG could raises again for all he knows.

If all this is correct, then wouldn't it be better to put him all-in now before another club comes on the turn?

Does this logic sound right, or is it too simplistic?

[/ QUOTE ]

At the time I assumed he would reraise with KK, but after thinking about the hand for a while I can see how KK makes sense. Calling with a lower pocket pair would be pretty loose in this situation, and I'd be shocked if he called a raise and a reraise, out of position, with something like KQs. I think QQ is also a possibility- in fact I'd kind of expect him to play QQ like this more often than KK. While a set is still a real possibility, I'm pretty convinced now that I should have pushed. Sucks for me.

I was pretty surprised that people gave him the range of hands that they did, given the preflop action, but I just started playing the $100 games. Is that kind of preflop looseness typical for these games?

[pho75]

I don't know about the $100 games. I don't play that high.
I almost never comment on hands that are at a higher level than I play. I just felt strongly that they were missing a very important point you made, that you saw villian as a solid player.