steal with A-rag this early?

[brizzypare]

This is a follow-up question for you guys.

If you had a read on the BB as tight, would a raise to t150 or t200 be out of the question? Is raising to t150 and folding to a BB push a -EV play?

[lastchance]

[ QUOTE ]
David, just keep pushing your hand into your face. I'm starting to see the frustration.

Yugo's comments are correct, IMO. Pushing here is probably +$EV. But generally not worth the risk reward.

[/ QUOTE ]
You mean +Chip EV, right? Cuz +$EV = automatic play, unless something else is even more +$EV.

[two_dogs]

This question is for u scuba and i think it is what David is getting at but no one has addressed.If he doesn't push here and the blinds go up before it gets around to him how much FE does he have when his stack is at the t495-t445 level?

[Phil Van Sexton]

This is the kind of play that a lot of players will take personally. In other words, the BB is not going to forget that you bullied him, and he'll be looking to play back at you at some point. This is not good. You are going to need him to fold on levels 4 and 5 when you push your meager stack.

I prefer not to make moves like this until level 5 (or level 4 if I have a small stack).

The same goes for coming over the top of a min-raiser or a SB limper. These are all good plays, but are much more effective the 1st time you do them because your opponent will remember them and adjust. If you wait until later, you will win more in blinds, and they have less time to adjust since the tournament will be over soon.

That being said, I'd probably call here and see what happens. I know out-of-position, etc, etc. I don't care. I'm throwing in 25 more with A4 and see if I can flop something, or take it down on the turn if he checks the flop. You can call it "chip spewing", but I prefer to think of it as "trying to make something happen".

[kspade]

[ QUOTE ]

Yugo's comments are correct, IMO. Pushing here is probably +$EV. But generally not worth the risk reward.

[/ QUOTE ]

Would some kind soul please explain this to me? I don't understand - isn't +$EV worth the risk? TIA [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

[Scuba Chuck]

He will likely have little to no FE as his stack gets that low. Essentially you're waiting for a hand, which is very likely in the AJo range (see Push or Wait?), and likely within ten hands. Hero will have to either push or call when he/she finds that hand. Hero needs to double up more than steal blinds when chipstacks are this low IMO. As stated in an earlier thread, this is one of the few situations where I'm willing to take a coinflip.

[Scuba Chuck]

Folding = 8.69% of the prize pool
Pushing, steal blinds = 9.7% of equity prize pool
Pushing, called & win = 16.8% of the equity prize pool
Pushing, called & lose = 0.0% of the equity prize pool

Assumed Hand Range BB will call with?
99+, AQs+. probability of having these hands 2.1%
A4o has a 27% win probability against this range:

Therefore:
Pushing = (.978)(.097)+(.021)(.27)(.168) = .0957
Pushing = 9.57% of the equity prize pool.

The major problem with this equation, is that my assumption on Hand Ranges is completely wrong at the $10+1s. As I begin to include more and more hand choices (like 22, or KQs), this will 'narrow the gap' between pushing and folding. Thus, even if this play is marginally +$EV, I don't think it's worth the risk. But if you know BB is uber-tight, and would only call with the above Hand range, then this is a good play, IMO.

So the real risk reward isn't solved by your $EV analysis, but by your table read analysis.

Does that make sense?

[nova]

Depending on what you know about the BB could make your decision on this one. Sometimes at tables I've seen a big blind fold to a raise a large percentage of the time, responding to myself in the SB or the button before me.

If he would routinely play back, then you may be making a stand with ace-rag which isn't always the best thing. assuming he has 5's or better, your only hope is for an ace. If he's an Ace / anything player, you could already be outkicked. Likewise with suits: he may have a J10s and catch one of the remaining cards.

If the blinds aren't eating you up, and you feel good that you'll get respect, a good sized raise may cause him to fold. If he calls, play it as you would from early position. if he reraises, you probably want to junk the hand.

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
- isn't +$EV worth the risk

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
Cuz +$EV = automatic play, unless something else is even more +$EV.

[/ QUOTE ]

These are my thoughts and opinions. When $EV calculations are marginal, then it is important to consider other factors. I've hashed this out quite a bit in this post, who calls in this scenario?.

Second of all, $EV calculations have to be considered in the larger scheme of things. Subpart of your question, "unless something else is more $EV" is a great answer to your own question. And I think that Sklansky discusses this in TPFAP with regards to waiting one day to get a better $EV opportunity with a different coinflip bookie.

Your win opportunity COULD be marginal depending on your table read. Therefore, waiting for a better opportunity, or hand very likely could be MORE +$EV. BTW, if this is level 4, this is an autopush, as Pushing, steal blinds = 10.4% of the equity prize pool. Much more worth the risk reward.

I'm sure Yugo will agree with this analysis... (right?)
Scuba
Whose skin has toughened up again.

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
a good sized raise may cause him to fold

[/ QUOTE ]

I tend to agree more with this line. There are certainly arguments against this. But a raise to 200, IMO, represents a strong hand more than a push, which looks more like a steal. Obviously if you're called, you're probably doing a Stop-n-go.