Nut straight, paired board, on the bubble

Toopskees · #1 03-23-2005, 02:06 PM

Poker Stars multi, top 10 places pay. 11 players left. Hero is at the 6-handed table with t7000. Average stack ~t11,000, chipleader has ~t19,000. Hero has solid table image and always showed down good hands. Villain (who has t7300) has shown erratic tendencies, making questionable plays with mediocre hands at times, betting aggressively at others. For example, he had doubled up earlier holding Q8s and catching an 8 to win.

In this key hand, blinds were 300/600. Folded to Villain who limps in on the button. SB folds, and Hero in the BB checks his JTo. The pot has t1500 in it. Flop is 998 rainbow. Hero bets t1100 with his OESD; Villain calls. Turn is a 7 with no flush possible. Hero checks his made straight, and Villain moves all-in. Hero...?

b0000000000m · #2 03-23-2005, 02:08 PM

Insta-call

jah0550 · #3 03-23-2005, 02:15 PM

Call this everyday/all day and twice on Sunday

Msogard · #4 03-23-2005, 02:17 PM

Fold. Your opponent clearly has four 9's.

Toopskees · #5 03-23-2005, 02:31 PM

Keep in mind: Villain has Hero covered, and the players are on the bubble...

Bernas · #6 03-23-2005, 02:34 PM

Is 10th place what he wants though?
I am guessing not, but if getting his buy in back is more important than winning then I guess it is something to consider.

Personally I would call.

edfilan · #7 03-23-2005, 02:37 PM

Yes it is an instacall, but judging from the existence of this post, I would say that villain had 77 or 88.

Simplistic · #8 03-23-2005, 02:41 PM

insta call here.
he MAYBE has a piece of the flop, more likely he senses weakness and wants the pot, or was trapping was an overpair and ended up trapped himself.

sloth469 · #9 03-23-2005, 02:44 PM

Because they are on bubble and he has him covered he is more likely to be over playing his hand and over estimating his FE. Do you see why? If I were villian I'd be overestimating it and playing two pair and maybe a set the same way, too. There is a chance he filled in, but would he have played it this way or would he have made a smaller bet hopint to intice a call?

Also, which stars tourneys pay 10? Unless it is a satelite, which would be a crucial pice of information, I think you are mistaken here.

-sloth

number5858 · #10 03-23-2005, 02:58 PM

What range of hands did you put him on?

I think that he probably doesn't have a big pair or he would bet preflop. To me, that puts his chances of having AA-1010 at something like 10%. If he had 99, he probably would have bet that big too preflop. He might have limped in with a smaller pair 88-22. I would make that something like a 30% chance. There is always a chance he missed and this is a bluff. Since he is erratic, I would put that chance in something like the 20% range. A reasonable holding to limp with might be something like A10s - A6s. I would have to give that about a 30% chance. Finally, he might be holded a suited connecter like 87s-54s. I would have to give that about a 10% chance.

Pot odds are about 1.75-1 for you to call.

How will you fair against each of his possible holdings?

Against the big pair, he would be drawing to 2 outs. He would be 23-1 to make that with one card to go.

Against 99 or 88 or 77, you are already dead, but why wouldn't he work it slow to get more of your money in the pot rather than raising all in? If he were a world class player, then he might think exactly this and raise all in as a deception, but his play was erratic before, so this isn't the case.

Against A9-A6, he has some outs, but you are still way ahead. Against a smaller set of connectors you are way ahead.

I don't think you have a choice but to call. His betting pattern doesn't say that he has you beat. To me, it says that he desperately doesn't want you to get another card.