How much should i bet? - Page 3

Msogard · #21 03-22-2005, 03:18 PM

Bet more on the turn, the pot is larger and so should your bets to make calling on a draw incorrect.

Also, when you say 30% to hit his draw, do you mean by the river or by the turn? This makes a huge difference in the size of your bets. For example:

Opponent: 6d7d
You: AcAs

Pot: $200

Flop comes: Kd9d2c

He checks, how much do you bet if you know what he is holding? He's 35% to hit his draw, better than 2-1, but that's by the river. You don't have to bet enough to give him worse than 2-1 pot odds, because you'll be able to bet again on the turn.

We'll say he's about 4-1 to hit his draw on the turn. So with 200 in the pot, you need to bet enough to give him worse than 4-1 pot odds. Betting 100 gives him 3-1, which would be incorrect to call, but his implied odds might make this call correct, so bet a little more. I'd bet about 150 here, giving him worse than 2.5-1 on a 4-1 shot. You want to bet enough to make him wrong, but not too much, because you want him to call and make a mistake.

Just repeat on the turn with the new pot size.

jinxy · #22 03-22-2005, 07:07 PM

Yeah you hit it RIGHT on the nose man! That bet of 150 that you mentioned is around 60% of 200...

Since your aces were a 60% fav, you bet your aces chances upped a lil bit... That is how i am going to start betting in no limit.. Betting my chances that is

jinxy · #23 03-22-2005, 07:34 PM

Is that how everyone bets in nl who is good?

Msogard · #24 03-22-2005, 09:15 PM

Of course. Read Harrington's book, it will answer all of your questions and more.

pzhon · #25 03-23-2005, 03:40 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Yeah you hit it RIGHT on the nose man! That bet of 150 that you mentioned is around 60% of 200... Since your aces were a 60% fav, you bet your aces chances upped a lil bit...

[/ QUOTE ]
That is just a coincidence.

[ QUOTE ]
That is how i am going to start betting in no limit.. Betting my chances that is

[/ QUOTE ]
That is a horrible idea, not at all what good players do, and it disagrees with most of the responses you have gotten.

Do NOT bet what you think your chances are. If you flop quads, it is usually wrong to move in. If you miss, it is often right to bet anyway.

Good luck.

Msogard · #26 03-23-2005, 12:55 PM

Wow, I didn't even realize he said that. You would be betting your strong hands hard and your weak hands hardly at all. You'd never bet the full pot either. I don't know where you got this idea, I never said bet your chances, just that you bet enough to give your opponent worse pot odds than he needs to call correctly.

jinxy · #27 03-23-2005, 02:36 PM

I mean, if you flop a fullhouse or above, then yeah, you need to start betting in odds that favor your opponents (since its likely they are drawing dead)

But for most hands you'll get, ie a pair, 2 pair, straight, set, flush, you can bet those hands by your chances to win am i right? You just have to effectively put your opponent(s) on a hand(s) to figure out both of yous guys odds

jinxy · #28 03-23-2005, 05:47 PM

Yo know, kinda bet your odds with problems hands like top pair, and a str8 with a flush on board,.. things like that so if and when you get drawn out on, you can at least say you made them pay for their draw, without overbetting it...

Little Fishy · #29 03-25-2005, 11:12 AM

NO!!!!

DO not bet your odds!!!!

in theory and in practice this idea is terrible.

lets use your 70% example but switch rolls. So, lets say that on the flop you're ona drawy with a 30% chance to hit it by the river. so does this mean that you want to bet 30% of the pot? NO! you either want to see more cards as cheaply as possible or bet an amount so that the combine probability that your opponent will fold combine with the probability that you will make your hand is greater than the ratio of risk to reward. this bet will surely be greater than 30% of the pot.

even if betting your chances of winning the ideal poker strategy, to think that you could predict your holdings and your opponents holdings accurate enough to make reasonable bets on the early (1st 2) rounds of betting is impractical. being able to place your opponents on a specific subset of hands usualy isn't possible till the turn or river, especialy if they have position on you.

-little fishy

jskinn04 · #30 03-25-2005, 04:05 PM

I'm fairly new to poker and I have found this particular set of posts to be very interesting. I have a question about the whole scenario where the guy considering a bet is a 70% favorite to win the hand with $100 already in the pot. It seems to me that any bet made by the guy with a 70% chance ("favorite") will be profitable for favorite. If favorite bets small enough, the call will still be a good one to make for the underdog. If favorite and underdog are both good players, wouldn't favorite want to make a bet such that underdog would just barely be making a profitable call? Doesn't favorite want to get called with his 70% edge?