Teach me about scalping/middling

[Ric]

I've been bitten by the sports betting bug, but rather than do all the research that goes into successful betting, I'd like to give scalping and middling a try. Also, since scalping guarantees a profit with the right line, I'm thinking more of sticking with that for a while until I get the hang of middling.

My main problem is, I haven't been able to find books with lines that are variable enough to get a profitable scalp. I've found one line in the past week that worked. The sites I've started searching are:

Pinnacle, CanBet, Lay107, Bodog, BetCRIS, Intertops

I've looked at others (VIP, WSC), but they don't seem to have very good selection or different lines from what I have currently.

Most of the time, Pinnacle has the closest line both ways, which isn't very helpful to me. I've been looking at most every sport's moneyline, as well as props/futures. The line I found was a prop, actually. Also, some lines aren't available on more than one site, golf matchups for example.

Are there any books that offer a lot of different lines that I haven't listed? The more lines, the better.

As for middling, my initial strategy will be to find the lines with the biggest difference, and judge if a bet would be profitable. If profitable, I may buy one side to the other to lower variance (like changing -2 to -3 for better odds and a +3 is available). There's probably some book I could buy that outlines the probability of games falling on certain points, I may pick that up if this takes off well.

Thanks for any advice, sorry about the long post.

[QuickLearner]

It's a bad news--good news story. The bad news is that you won't find many scalps. The good news is that baseball season is probably the best time to search. You've also got to remember that a 5-cent scalp is a big one, so it will be a long grind that ties up a ton of money.

I'm a cynic. I believe that rogue lines are posted by rogue books...and I don't like to trust my money at places like that. If you stick with top-flight books (as you seem to be trying to do) you just won't find that much variation.

If you want to gamble a little you could try betting early and collecting your scalp based on line moves as game time approaches. But it will be hard to accomplish that and still skip the part about learning how to handicap.

Which books to add? Look for those which have a reputation for setting their own lines rather than just cloning CRIS. 5 Dimes will work and they have lines on almost every kind of contest; also Olympic Sports for the same reasons. Maybe Hollywood. I trust these three... BetCRIS (which deals 20 cent lines) and Intertops (their dime line breaks too low as I remember) aren't good choices for baseball.

Your idea of buying points while middling strikes me as suicidal. You need to win 5% of your middles to break even as it is.

I hope some of this helps a little; have fun with your new "bug." [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[tech]

[ QUOTE ]
The bad news is that you won't find many scalps.

[/ QUOTE ]

This simply isn't true. Sunday night I was going through the NCAA tournament props online, and there were so many scalps just sitting there that I didn't have enough money online to bet them all.

[ QUOTE ]
I'm a cynic. I believe that rogue lines are posted by rogue books...and I don't like to trust my money at places like that. If you stick with top-flight books (as you seem to be trying to do) you just won't find that much variation.

[/ QUOTE ]

Because of this problem, it helps to use Vegas books when middling. You will find some lines at very reputable books that are substantially different than offshore lines. Also try the betting exchanges, like Tradesports.

[QuickLearner]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
The bad news is that you won't find many scalps.

[/ QUOTE ]

This simply isn't true. Sunday night I was going through the NCAA tournament props online, and there were so many scalps just sitting there that I didn't have enough money online to bet them all.


[/ QUOTE ]

Sorry, I'm not a prop bettor, and I haven't bet hoops in a few years, so I missed all of that. I need to choose my words more carefully.

[Ric]

Thanks for the help, I signed up at Olympic and 5dimes and they seem to have a good selection.

I realize that there's little reward (the one I found earlier will give me a profit of ~3%), but my goal is to minimize risk, so sticking with the big books is how I'll go. I'm too inexperienced right now to predict how a line will move, so I won't try scalping based on probable movement yet.

Maybe I didn't outline what I tried to do for middling well enough, but I don't think it'll work well unless I can find lines that are very different (like 2+ points). Also, I'd probably be giving up value by buying/selling points in the first place. That'll just be something to play around with for now.

[abacus]

Like the man said... it ties up A LOT of money.

[ftball0000]

I know what middling is... but could someone please explain what scalping is?

Help out a newbie
-Ftball

[Ric]

An example of scalping would be, you find these lines on 2 sites for the same game:

Site A:
Yankees +120
Cardinals -140

Site B:
Yankees -120
Cardinals +100

If you bet the right amounts on the Yankees at +120 and Cardinals at +100, you're guaranteed a profit. Of course, this probably is an extreme example of the overlay you can get, but it shows the point.

[tech]

[ QUOTE ]
I know what middling is... but could someone please explain what scalping is?

[/ QUOTE ]

Basically just arbitrage. It is betting both sides of the same bet in a way that guarantees a profit. For example, lot of books have a prop up on whether Illinois will win the NCAA championship. If you bet "Yes" at +300 at one book while betting "No" at -250 somewhere else, you can adjust your bet sizes to guarantee a profit no matter what actually happens.

[ftball0000]

thanks guys!