88 level 2

[RobGW]

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I don't see any significant implied odds for me to be rewarded for my bet this early in the hand - only one limper

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How about the limpers entire stack? Give yourself a chance to win some chips.

[johnnybeef]

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t30 is not that big of a deal when confronted with the possibility of taking down a huge pot with a set.

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Out of curiosity, are you folding this hand on level 3?

Furthermore, let me see if I can apply some math to this...

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assuming i hold an average stack and i have no hyper-aggros behind me yes. as far as the math goes, it is impossible to precisely calculate implied odds, so im curious what you mean here.

[adanthar]

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Total mid- to small sets flopped: 14
Times I won less than a stack: 7
Times I won a stack or more: 7

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[EarlCat]

Normally I would have thought limp, check/fold to overcards was a no-brainer. I probably still think that, but now I have to at least do some reconsidering. Thanks, Scuba.

[Scuba Chuck]

using dfscott's statistics, I will use the following assumptions. These assumptions are used just to "start a dialogue" about this issue. There are obvious flaws, that can be recorrected after the original math is examined.

1. Assume that 80% of the time, when betting in EP or MP, the hand is not raised behind me. And that if raised, I will fold.

2. That 50% of the time that the set is completed, I am rewarded by the doubling of my stack (say precisely 800 chips). The other 50% of the time, I will assume a net zero chip return.

That makes the math something like the following:

Probability of doubling up playing a pp for set value:
1/8.5 = .1176
P(sv) = (.80)(.50)(.1176) = .047 or 1 in 21 times.

How does this help me? Well, it helps to uncover what is the minimum limping amount I'd be willing to consider to play a pocker pair (pp). If I am paid off via a double, then once every 21 times, the following 'bets' are appropriate:
15 chips ~ 315 chip cost to earn 800
30 chips ~ 630 chip cost to earn 800

and now the inappropriate bets...
50 chips ~ 1,050 chip cost to earn 800
60 chips ~ 1,260 chip cost to earn 800

The results of this analysis suggests that calling a reraise on level 2 is an incorrect decision.

Finally, I am interested in learning what the stats say about doubling up when there are only 4 or less players in the pot. Perhaps dfscott's results will shed some light on this.

Before I continue with my further thoughts on this, I'm hoping to get some feedback on the above math.

Regards, Scuba

[Scuba Chuck]

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fold pre-flop

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Morgan180, I missed this. Care to share your thoughts here, at the risk of exposing yourself to Scuba-bashing, lol? [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]