Interesting 109 ITM hand - Page 2

Michael C. · #11 03-22-2005, 11:01 AM

Thanks everyone. For the record I did call and she hit a king, but I thought it was the right move, but wasn't sure without checking the math. Now I feel better about it. ;-)

FishBurger · #12 03-22-2005, 11:40 AM

[ QUOTE ]
The following hand came up earlier today. The chip leader had about 7,400 in chips, I had 2,500, and the third player had 95. The blinds were 200-400, and the leader was pushing almost every hand, like she should. I was in the bb, and got 88. The chip leader pushed from the sb. Would you call here and go for the win, or fold and take the guaranteed second? Remember, she had been pushing with any two.

[/ QUOTE ]

Here's the ICM analysis for this situation:

$EV before hand
big stack = T7400 = $0.4475
you = T2500 = $0.3466
small stack = T95 = $0.2059

$EV if you fold
big stack = T7800 = $0.4556
you = T2100 = $0.3379
small stack = T95 = $0.2065

$EV if you call and win
big stack = T4900 = $0.3966
you = T5000 = $0.3987
small stack = T95 = $0.2047

$EV if you call and lose
big stack = T9900 = $0.4981
you = T0 = $0.2
small stack = $0.3019

fold $EV = $0.3379
call $EV = 0.7 (assuming SB pushes any 2) * 0.3987 + 0.3 * 0.2 = $0.33909

total prize pool = $1000

fold $EV = $337.9
call $EV = $339.09

This analysis was done using an
ICM calculator and pokerstove and assuming SB was pushing any two. If you did the same analysis with SB's actual hand (K3), the numbers come out nearly the same.

Some people would argue that ICM is defective when such a small stack is put into the equation. If you give the small stack a bigger share of the prize pool (say by taking away 150 chips from each of the larger stacks and giving it to the smaller stack) then the $EV leans even more towards calling.

Apathy · #13 03-22-2005, 01:30 PM

Two things:

1.The big stack SHOULD be pushing any two, so play accordingly if you think they are any good.

2. ICM says this is a call, plus (as I believe one other poster said) If shorty wins an all in you are going to continue to lose blinds. Obviously the same situation on the bubble is an easy fold for many more hands then 88.