AQs - Play along - Page 2

mungpo · #11 03-22-2005, 02:03 AM

I don't like calling this preflop and certainly don't like calling two bets on the flop. Muck, man, muck!

Catt · #12 03-22-2005, 04:28 AM

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As far as needing something more specific on reads, here you go.
UTG+1 is everyone's favorite LPP, sees 80% of flops, never agressive (.1 AF postflop)
MP1 is a maniac. If he misses a flop he folds.
MP3 is a little tighter than UTG+1 55% flops seen
CO - vpip 22-23, pfr 12.

Given that when the action got to me, the only credible raise came from the CO, I see no reason why I shouldnt call. there are enough people in the pot that love to see the flop that it isnt unreasonable to assume that they will stick around. When it gets capped behind me, do you fold AQs for another bet without seeing the flop? No.

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These are the sorts of reads that should go with the original post. If you have them, share them.

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I'm more interested on the flop action, so I'll post my perceptions of what they had.

I put UTG+1 on just about anything. MP1 on just about anything too, minus unsuited crap. MP3's coldcall followed by the cap says he has a premium hand. AA-JJ, AK. Same for CO, but add TT, AQ, and AJ.

That said, lets see a flop
Flop: (21.50 SB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (5 players)
UTG+1 checks, MP1 checks, MP3 bets, CO raises, Hero calls, UTG+1 folds, MP1 folds, MP3 calls.

MP3's bet/call indicates to me that he has AK (hoping that we have overcards and will fold), or he has a smaller PP - QQ-TT (and is afraid of the CO's raise indicating a better hand)

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When the action is to you on the flop, you have no idea that MP3 is going to bet/call -- all you have is MP3 betting and CO raising. For all you know, any of UTG, MP1, or MP3 could 3-bet and/or cap. After seeing him bet the flop, you actually widened your range of reads by now including TT, but then also shrank your range after seeing the action after you (eliminating AA, KK).

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CO's raise says big PP - AA or KK or he is trying to push with a smaller PP QQ-TT

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CO wouldn't raise his overs on this flop? Would CO raise with any hand here given he can't protect?

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My call - this is where I want input. I have a backdoor straight, and a backdoor flush for a total of 2 outs, and 2 overcards either of which may not be clean. Lets discount to 3 outs. So with 5 outs, and a huge pot, im getting 24.5:2 (12.25:1) on my call. Since MP3 is LPP, I correctly assumed that he wouldnt reraise the flop - lucky me.

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Before we go on to out-counting, let's look again at the situation when it comes to you. Your own reads have MP3 on AA - JJ or AK. You're in really bad shape against his range of hands. Your own reads have CO on AA - TT. You're in really bad shape against his range of hands. You have no idea whether UTG or MP1 will raise behind you; and you have no idea if MP3 will reraise -- you say he is LPP, but this LPP has cold-called then capped pre-flop and then led the flop. CO is also an aggressive player according to your statistical read. I think it is a mistake to think you're getting x:x in this situation because you simply cannot know if you're putting in 2, 3, or 4 bets on this flop.

Back to counting your outs: again your own reads have you facing AA - JJ, AK and AA - TT, plus two of almost anything from UTG and MP1. I'm not going to do the math for this post, but I think your overcards are worth almost nothing if your reads are accurate. For the A to be worth anything, neither opponent can have an A in his hand. For the Q to be an out, neither opponent can have an A, K, or Q in his hand. If one of them has AA and the other QQ (within your reads) your overs are dead and worse then dead since you're likely to commit additional bets to the pot when you're drawing dead. In addition, even in the unlikely circumstance that an A or Q is a real out for you, it opens up a redraw in the event your reads are slightly off and one or more opponent has something like AK, AQ, AJ, etc.

You backdoor flush is worth 1.5 outs. Your runner-runner straight is at best 1 out (and suffers from the same redraw risk).

I think you've got at most 3 outs (I really think it's more accurate to say 2 outs since I think your runner-runner straight and overs are worth, collectively, about 0.5 to 0.75 outs). When it is 3 outs for you, facing a bet and a raise from the hand ranges you read, many still to act behind, and the pot is offering immediate odds of 25:2, you really shouldn't be calling this flop bet. If MP3 3-bets and CO caps, you're getting 30:4 -- that looks pretty ugly, doesn't it?

I really like the fact that you're taking the time to explain why you did what you did and thinking through the hand to evaluate your own decision-making. But I don't like your play on this flop (and it sounds like it's results-oriented influenced - hitting a BDFD doesn't make this flop play any better).

godduo · #13 03-22-2005, 06:23 AM

I fold pre-flop. If you hit a Queen you're behind to AA, KK or QQ. If you hit an ace you are behind AA or AK. If you hit an AQx flop you're still behind AA or QQ and you'll lose a lot of bets. I wouldn't be surprised to see any of these hands in this pot.

So now that we've discounted your Aces or Queens, what about the flush draw? Would you play Axs here? I wouldn't. I figure it to be worth about what AQs is right now. A flush and nothing else.

That said, I'm folding the flop for reasons already outlined.

davelin · #14 03-22-2005, 11:21 AM

I'd fold pre-flop and fold the flop. You're not closing the action on the flop so it's very possible that this will be capped (which it is). It's now looking that you'll have to hit a pretty good board in order for you to win this pot but because you've committed yourself, it may be hard to let go when you hit just an Ace or a Q.

Continuing on the flop is just bad poker, exacberated by your pre-flop decision.