interesting hand - should I call? what does my opponent have?

[BigBiceps]

I am UTG with Ah Ad.

I raise 3.3 BBs(big blinds) and even though I have been playing extremely tight I get 5 callers. pot = ~19 big blinds after the rake.

Flop comes 8h 8d 3h.

I bet 3.3 BBs as I am short stacked anyway and I wanted to feel where I stand against 5 callers.

It goes fold, fold, fold, raise all in to 13.3 BBs fold, now I have to call 10 BBs to win a 35 BB pot, which means I must win at least 22% of the time to make calling correct.

Should I call here?

Note:
If he has 8x, I win 12% of the time.
If he has 33, I win 16% of the time.
If he has TJs or similar, I win 70% of the time.
If he has 99, TT, or JJ, I win 90% of the time.

I can't see him having any other hands.

Now please assess what you think he has each of the % of the time.

During the game, I noticed that my opponent was happy with his hand. However, that doesn't give me any info. since he could be happy with any of the above holdings, some which I dominate and some which dominate me.

I assessed, that he had 8x - 75% of the time, 33 - 10% of the time, and 99/TT/JJ - 15% of the time. I have to admit that during the game I overlooked the possibility of TJs or similar. So if you go by those assessed values, then my chance to win is .75*.12 + .10*.16 + .15 *.90 = 25% and I only need 22% to make calling correct!!

I could not compute fast enough, but I knew it was close -- I folded!!

In retrospect, driving home I reassessed the possibilities, and gave the values of 50%, 10%, 10% of the items above, and now 30% for TJs or similar that I failed to consider.

Now I have .50*.12 + .10*.16 + .10*.90 + .30*.70 = 37 % chance to win!!! Making a fold now a big mistake!

What do you assess the probabilities at?

Thanks,
BB <font color="blue"> </font> <font color="blue"> </font>

[rwanger]

I'm impressed with how deeply you are attempting to analyze this, but it's only 10BB, and how many are already in the pot? Too many for you to fold this. There is no reason to put him on 8x 75% of the time. I wasn't at the game but given the 3x raise...he's more likely to have any of the other hands you mentioned. The flop is scaring you into thinking he has one of the few hands that destroys you. If he really had an 8, don't you think he'd let you bet into him again? Why would he want to raise you and everyone else out when he has the best hand for sure?

Even if he had more money behind I'd put him on a flush draw or an overpair when he moves in on you, both of which you are ahead of.

Definate call.

[Prevaricator]

i agree

[BigBiceps]

There are 35 BB in the pot.

I put him on the 8, since I figured there was a good chance that one of my oppos had an 8 because there were 5 oppos.

I also thought it much less likely for him to have a flush draw, since I had the Ah, so much so that I forgot about it completely.

He did not necessarily want to raise to get everyone out. Like you said it is only 10 BB into a 25 BB so he is likely trying to get the money in with what he thinks is the best hand. Part of the problem is, what if he thinks JJ etc. is the best hand. Plus he is not really getting people out, since 3 people already folded to him.

I agree it was a definite call, which is why I have been obsessing about my mistake all day [img]/images/graemlins/mad.gif[/img]

So what do you assess the probabilities of each hand to be?

Best,
BB

[padirk165]

well here is my take.

Your math aside i think you need a really strong read to fold here. How much do you know about this player? would he call a raise with hands like 78 or 89. Also you flop bet looks rather weak so you be inviting a bluff from a heart draw. Without a strong read here i think the likelyhood of a heart draw or another overpair is very good. I think a lot of times your opponent may put you on AK or AQ and be betting any hand in the 99-JJ range and maybe even 66 or 77 if he reads you as weak. anywayi think this spot deserves a call b/c i think he slow plays an 8 or 33 here and you have him beat or dominated most times.

[rwanger]

How much did you have behind anyway? And why were you betting only 3 BB into 19BB pot with a flop like that? You might be inviting people to take shots at you.

[BigBiceps]

I think it is very likely he will call with 78, 89 or even A8. Especially due to the fact that there are already 4 people in the pot (which is a perfect scenario for hands like those).

Yes, I agree my flop bet looks weak. I should have bet more.

I agree he could have the 99-JJ, I doubt 66 or 77.

I guess you might be right that he might slowplay the 8 or 33 here, however, I look at it from the faulty perspective, that I would not slow play the 8 or 33 here, since the 8 wants to protect against the flush draw, and the 33 wants to protect against the overpair (even though it is only 16%, the pot is large, and the stacks are small).

Thanks for your reply.
BB

[BigBiceps]

I had 22 BB behind when I bet 3.3 BB. He went all-in with his 13.3 BB.

I only bet 3.3 BB to get multiple callers and then to move in on the turn if no one showed any strength.

However there were other people in the hand with &gt;200 BB, just FYI.

[rwanger]

With only 13BB and a pot of 20 something, he only has one move, all-in. So any hand that he would play, that's his move. If he has a really great hand, it's not going to hurt him to slowplay, IMO, because he doesn't stand to lose very much regardless. If my stack were that short, I'd probably just call your small bet with top trips, even though I may get outdrawn. If I had 200BB like everyone else, I'd have other considerations, but then again, you have a tiny stack too. With your stack being about the size of the pot, you cannot get away from AA here, in fact, I'm not sure that I would lay down any overpair if I were you.

In fact you can't even lay down a flush draw to his all-in.

[BigBiceps]

That is part of the problem. I think I would have called easily if I had Ah Kh or something, since that hand would have alot more chance (25%) to win against 8x (which I considered his likely holding) than AA (vs. 12%). and still been about even money vs. 99-JJ.