Very tough set decision

[pshabi]

Had a similar hand last weak, but the board was really screaming straight. Laid it down and let two others build a giant pot that got taken down by two pair.

I threw up.

[habsfanca11]

Have to add my agreement (with the others) to coldcalling this and calling down as cheaply as possible. Maybe it's just me living in weak-tight land but at 2/4 and 3/6 if someone comes alive on the turn or river (especially this strongly) it generally means they have the goods. My first thought was he probably hit his set of 5s on the turn. Especially in an unraised pot and especially from the big blind with this strong a move BB likely has you beat. Would appreciate any feedback or SOP advice because it seems I don't listen enough given some of the hands I'm running into. This is a great example where I would've plowed ahead with the set only to be behind.

Good post!

[DiamondDave]

I cap the turn against most opponents.

[Harv72b]

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Fair enough. Please help me see your logic here given the smallish pot on the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

When the action gets back to Hero, there are six big bets in the pot from the turn alone. Even if nobody caps the turn and the river is bet/call/fold (worst case in terms of pot size, IMO), you're looking at a final pot around 14 BBs. That is most definitely not "smallish".

[Still the Spank E]

You sure look beat, don't ya? 'Looks like one of 'em had 55, the other A2. Perhaps only one of them has one of these two hands and the other's semi-bluffing his spade draw. It's hard to deny BOTH of them though, isn't it? The pot's not large enough to play on, chief, so it's not as tough a decision as you think. You'll have plenty of sets to play on other days.

[beachbum]

I don't put it past BB to have A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] on this turn. Some crazies will wait until the turn to wake up with AT and no flush draw too. It sucks to have no reads.

[Nick C]

I don't think UTG+1's turn raise has to indicate he has a hand as strong as a set or straight.

I do agree that BB's hand is a major concern. And UTG+1's is as well, in part because that hand could cut into Hero's outs even if Hero has UTG+1 beat. (The actual set of 3's that UTG+1 had, for instance, while in third place, did reduce Hero's outs to 7. And a trash suited hand like T5s would be even more damaging to Hero's chances, if he's drawing.)

But there is some chance Hero is ahead, which is a really important consideration, even if Hero's chances of being ahead weren't all that good. And if he's Hero is behind and is up against two straights or a straight and, say, 66 or A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 3 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] or an AT type hand UTG+1 waited until the turn to raise with, then Hero would want to continue.

[bernie]

[ QUOTE ]
in that if you were to play every hand you had a set with super agressively from now till forever, it would be +ev. Are you telling me the set loses more than half the times in all these instances

[/ QUOTE ]

Depends on the instances. In this case, on this type of board, yes, you will likely lose more than 1/2 the time when the action dictates that you have to hit your hand on the river to win. 2 guys just woke up on the turn and raised. One check-3 betting. You're really going to just ignore that and cap? Even if your read is better just because...

When you have near bottom set on a board like this, don't you even consider just what the other guys might be jamming the turn with? Or do you just blindly throw chips in without factoring that in. That is what your implying by saying one should play this way.

Think a little bit before throwing chips in. Don't just think in a blanket form for all situations and say, 'I have a set, so no matter what, I'm jamming the hell out of the turn.'

But no, you likely won't lose much, if any, in always jamming the turn with a set every time. However, you sure are far from maximizing profit when you do it all the time, every time. You close the gap a little more between winning player and losing player doing it, 'generally'.

b

[bernie]

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How many bets would you call on a river blank? I'm asking because sometimes I think I pay off too often when I get trapped in a big pot versus two players who love their hands

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Good question.

Here's one thing about paying off against unknowns. It doesn't cost much in the longrun. Why? Because they aren't unknowns for long. The situation doesn't come up all that often where it's really going to affect your profit. Shortterm, it will, but it's negligible longrun. However, shortterm will affect your psyche much quicker.

It starts costing you lots of chips when you do have a read and ignore the obvious based on your read. (ie...callingstations) A case can be made both ways, and has in previous threads on calling multiple bets against unknowns.

One thing is, these guys have played in a rather predictable manner which can allow you to lay this down on the river unimproved. However, if you're really not sure, call it.

One factor that many don't consider is the effect on your play should you fold a winner in this spot. It could put one on heavy tilt where they blow off a few chips regaining their composure. If you've never done this before, it is like a bolt of electricity shooting through you. A kick in the gut. Now you're questioning your reads and everything else until you recover. The effect is different for different players, obviously. You can really see this in live cardrooms when it happens to some players.

I use a simplified rule. If I can fold and be shown I folded a winner, and it won't really bother me, I can fold. This gets much more accurate the more you get lines on your opponents play. On this hand, I could probably lay it down for 2 cold on the river. Though I don't like doing it against 'real' unknowns.

Not sure if this answers your question, but it might give you some ideas to think about.

b

[bernie]

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Even if one of your opponents is indeed bluffing, the other probably isnt. You have to make a decision as to whether your up against a couple of two pairs or if you're behind a straight or higher set.

Treat the turn bet as an information/value bet. Since at least one of your opponents probably has you beat, you can now safely fold out of this smallish pot once it's re-raised back to you.


[/ QUOTE ]

Regarding info: You gain no info by capping the turn. More is gained if the guy behind you caps. It also can help make the river play easier.

b