analysis of bad streak using PT

[marken]

I wrote some days ago that I was worried about my game. I've lost about 180 BB so far this month and i was wondering why. Someone sugested to check PT for changes in stats so i compared february which was a very good month for me with this month so far. I just wanted to share what i found out.

VPIP: same, PFR: same, showdown%: same, win%: same, agressionfactor: same except for river which was 2 this month instead of 2.5.

so far not much.

Then i took a look at my big hands, like AA, KK AKs/o and so on. It turned out that i even had higher BB/hand in winnings this month. strange. i had a feeling that people called me down much less this month, but the stats on the big hands showed similar numbers in showdown%.

Then i went on to check the diffrent complete hands, like pair, two pair, three of a kind and so on. Here i found something really interesting. All numbers where pretty similar except two different hands: three of a kind and full house. i had the same % of times i got three of a kind BUT the $ earned from these two hands was about 3 times higher in february than in this month. this was calculated by comparing these hands winning with the other hands winnings.

seems like i don't extract maximum from my good hand. i have to replay some hands and look and see if i can find a difference in how i play them.

Also checked the earnings from low/middle pocket pairs, and as suspected, the earnings from them was much higher in feb.

Then i had to check if my tableselection had been worse than feb but it had about the same in VPIP (35%).

Last thing i check was the number of times i had been dealt premium/good startinghands (AA, AK, AQ, AJ, ATs, KK, KQ, QQ, JJ, TT).

feb: 7.3%
march: 2.1%

seems like i've been on a cold run of cards too.

for those of you who's wondering about samplesize:
feb: 10.5k
march: 4.6k

now i need sleep badly, but i look forward to some comments when i wake up tommorrow [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[Perseus]

This is actually exactly what I notice when I am "running cold"...but the stat I look at is 2-pair. When I am winning or even breaking even, two pair is in the green, and almost every time I hit a downswing 2-pair is in the red.

Once in a while hands like flushs or three of a kinds will be really low in the green, but how I do almost always come back to whether my two pair hold up.

Maybe it's just because I'm looking at it, but this trend has been consistent with my winnings since I got pokertracker.

[einbert]

It could be you don't extract the maximum, but it's also very possible that you have just been losing a lot of big hand over big hand showdowns. That's what my downswings usually consist of.

EDIT: That and constantly missing flush draws/OESD.

[Perseus]

[ QUOTE ]


EDIT: That and constantly missing flush draws/OESD.

[/ QUOTE ]

[carpe_chipem]

You said your VPIP is the same, but the premium starters are less frequent. I would think your VPIP should go down in March if your good starters are coming less frequent. Perhaps your seeing too many flops with marginal starters. What did your starting hand analysis show? Are you limping, CC and raising the same starters as you did in Feb? Or have your starting standard gone down in order to maintain the same VPIP.

[Toopskees]

<ul type="square"> [ QUOTE ]
and constantly missing flush draws/OESD[/list]
Exactly my observation: you get sucked in on hands with pairs plus big draws, and never hit the massive pot. Just takes a few of these per session to cause a big swing.

[marken]

[ QUOTE ]
You said your VPIP is the same, but the premium starters are less frequent. I would think your VPIP should go down in March if your good starters are coming less frequent. Perhaps your seeing too many flops with marginal starters. What did your starting hand analysis show? Are you limping, CC and raising the same starters as you did in Feb? Or have your starting standard gone down in order to maintain the same VPIP.

[/ QUOTE ]

i looked at my starting standards for the hand which is in the danger zone. (KJo, KT, K9s, QJo, QT, Q9s and similar) and it showed even lower VPIP% for march. Also checked the suited connectors with a gap (T8s and similar) and these showed similar VPIP% as in feb.

Also looked at the stats for position, and it showed a bit lower VPIP for most position. So that is in order.

The cold call % is even lower this month than in feb.

But i agree with you, a drop from 7% to 2% in good starting hands should result in lower overall VPIP%. actually, i lied when i said that the VPIP% for march is the same as for feb. It actually have dropped, but the drop is marginal. Only 0.5%.

anyway, i wonder where thoose extra VPIP comes from now when i get worse hands. I get i feeling that i'm missing something. Is it so that my VPIP% should be be 5% lower now when i get 5% less good hands. there is something there i think i have missed.