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#1
03-19-2005, 03:07 AM
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Re: 99 on a double paired board
[ QUOTE ]
You'd be forcing out KK-TT with the river bet [/ QUOTE ] seems to contradict [ QUOTE ] By the river, the pot is sufficiently big that MP2 calls with any sort of pair or bigger [/ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] KK-TT must be thinking about the pre-flop 3-bet. [/ QUOTE ] they will NEVER fold here. Euro: I really don't like the river bet. Do you really think that he: a) raises preflop b) bets the flop c) calls you on the river with enough hands to be +EV? What can he have to call with? 88 and 77 are the obvious hands. And you would miss a value bet. BUT, I think TT-QQ are far more likely than 77 or 88 (most raise TT,JJ or QQ only some raise 77 or 88). This all changes, of course, if he calls with king high. Then it is a value bet. BUT, does he bet king high on the flop? Seems like an odd thing to do, no? I like the free showdown. 
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#2
03-19-2005, 03:28 AM
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Re: 99 on a double paired board
Sorry, didn't convey what I was trying to say. What I meant to say was "You'd be trying to force out KK-TT". As for the second statement, what I meant about KK-TT thinking about the pre-flop 3-bet is that after a call on the flop and a raise on the turn with what essentially is a blank, MP1 will really consider hard about whether or not the hero is holding an ace. It just seems to me that it'd carry more weight that way than a raise on the flop. Doesn't the raise on the flop seem weak with paired Aces on the board?
After thinking about it some more, it still seems to me that a flop call and a turn raise solves all your problems.
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#3
03-22-2005, 02:44 AM
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Re: 99 on a double paired board
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Do you really think that he: a) raises preflop b) bets the flop c) calls you on the river with enough hands to be +EV? [/ QUOTE ] One of us is definately mis-reading the hand. I hope its not me. Villain on river is MP2, the pre-flop and flop raiser is MP1, who folds on the turn to hero's re-raise. -Shami
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