Is this hand unprotectable?

[shant]

I've never been in this position before, and I thought it was an interesting flop decision. Here is the situation:

Commerce 6/12 - 8 Handed

SB is a maniac, but a passive one, he does some maniacal calls of capped turn for gutshots, but has only bet or raised when he has a piece. UTG+2 is a big nit. CO is a semi-loose passive old man.

I have A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] on the button.

UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 calls, 1 fold, MP2 calls, <font color="red">CO raises</font>, <font color="red">Hero 3-bets</font>, SB calls 2 &amp; 2/3 cold, BB calls, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, <font color="red">UTG+2 caps</font> and says "He was gonna cap anyway, so I wanted to" while pointing to CO, MP2 calls 2, CO calls, Hero calls, my grandma shows up and calls, and SB... wait for it... calls. Gambooool.

7 players to the flop: 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (14BB)

<font color="red">SB bets</font>, BB calls, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 calls, MP2 calls, CO calls, Hero ?

Let's hear some plans for the rest of the hand and some math if you guys are calculating.

[einbert]

I'm raising the flop for value. [censored] protection at this point. The rest of the hand depends so much on so many hands and so many different actions, but I'll give a brief overview-

a club
If there's heavy action to you just call, otherwise raise a single bet for value.

a nonclub, non[censored]
Raise for value

a nonclub [censored]
ew, fold for two bets probably call down for one if it's expected you'll only pay one more on the river.

[censored] cards = {any 7, any 9, any 8, any 4}

[JoshuaD]

Raising for value. Not very many people are going away this hand, you've probably got an equity edge if they all stay in until the river. Push it.

[mack848]

Thought I'd try out Twodimes for the first time on this.

I have assumed that the lack of a raise means that none of your opponents have flopped a set or str8.

Holdem Hi: 595 enumerated boards containing 8c 6c 5d
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Ac Ad 166 27.90 429 72.10 0 0.00 0.279
Kc Qd 10 1.68 585 98.32 0 0.00 0.017
9s 9h 70 11.76 525 88.24 0 0.00 0.118
Qc Jc 165 27.73 430 72.27 0 0.00 0.277
Ts 8h 51 8.57 542 91.09 2 0.34 0.087
7s Td 90 15.13 503 84.54 2 0.34 0.153
3s 3c 41 6.89 554 93.11 0 0.00 0.069

Mind you, if 88, 66 or 55 are out there, you're equity goes down to &lt;10%.

So, unless someone is slow playing 3 of a kind, it's a value raise - withh no protection.

[shant]

I should point out that the subject line is somewhat sarcastic because at this point I wasn't worried about hand protection. My concern was the line to take.

[JoshuaD]

[ QUOTE ]
I should point out that the subject line is somewhat sarcastic because at this point I wasn't worried about hand protection. My concern was the line to take.

[/ QUOTE ]

I raise the flop and go from there. Too many things could happen to have a concrete plan from here.

[Elizabeth]

You're closing the action, and if you raise now everyone will call, so I would just call and try to raise the turn. One of two things will happen:

1. you will cause some people to fold the turn for a second bet, and you protect your hand

2. people will call 2 big bets instead of 2 small bets, which is more value for your hand.

There's also a strong possibility of a terrible turn card falling and getting a lot of action on the turn. That's another reason to wait. The pot's big enough so that winning it is worth more than winning bets, so it sure seems like the right situation to wait.

[27offsooot]

There is no way that you can protect your hand. Raise and keep raising for value until someone gives u a reason not to.

[QTip]

[ QUOTE ]
There is no way that you can protect your hand. Raise and keep raising for value until someone gives u a reason not to.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ram it Jam it

[chesspain]

I'm raising the flop without a second's thought, especially with the backdoor draw to the nut flush. There are so many cards that could come on the turn which could cause SB to shy away from betting, and you have no idea if anyone else may try to bet.

Since you can't protect your hand, giving up an extra 3.5SB when your equity is seemingly fairly high seems foolish.

P.S. This hand is very similar to the "overpair" AA hand presented in SSHE, even though the board from this post is somewhat scarier.