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#1
03-15-2005, 02:02 PM
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Converting point spreads to odds
When I check the sports books for NCAA basketball picks, either I find the lines for round one of the tournament or I find the odds on a given team winning the whole thing. With respect to the former, if a higher seeded team is favored by say 5 points, how does one make sense of that in terms of odds? In other words, what are the odds that the higher seeded team will win if they are favored by 5 points? With the spread the odds "should be" 1:1 right? So how does that calculation change when one is simply betting on a team winning or not regardless of the spread. Essentially what I'm after is how one compares the EV of picking a higher seeded team and the points yielded from that round based on the seed versus picking a lower seeded team which may not be favored to win but might have a higher EV due to a seed muliplier bonus. Any insights into this inquiry would be greatly appreciated. Thank you.
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#2
03-15-2005, 05:06 PM
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Re: Converting point spreads to odds
[ QUOTE ]
Essentially what I'm after is how one compares the EV of picking a higher seeded team and the points yielded from that round based on the seed versus picking a lower seeded team which may not be favored to win but might have a higher EV due to a seed muliplier bonus. Any insights into this inquiry would be greatly appreciated. [/ QUOTE ] Don't look at the spreads for this. Look at the money lines. Take the point halfway between the ML on the favorite and the dog, then convert that to a percentage. That percentage reflects the current market opinion of the likelihood of each team to win the game.
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#4
03-16-2005, 07:42 PM
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Re: Converting point spreads to odds
[ QUOTE ]
Can you offer an example? [/ QUOTE ] Look at Alabama vs. UWM. The money line at Olympic is Alabama -220 and UWM +180. That means the "true" money line is probably somewhere between the two numbers. Let's just use the halfway point as an example, so assume the true ML is -200/+200. That means UWM is a 2 to 1 dog, or in other words, they should win about 33% of the time.
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