SnG ROI Confidence Intervals--Monte Carlo results

[lacky]

I've played full time for 18 months now, about 2/3 ring, 1/3 sng's and I've never had a losing month. When you figure in rackback as well, it takes a serioes prolonged run to have a losing month. The only times I have come close is when I have been spanked at a higher limit and had to drop down and make it up.

Steve

[Maulik]

[ QUOTE ]
Excellent point! It appears also that 15% ROI and 500 sng's a month would provide about 97-98% (rough guess from extrapolation) or so confidence in not having a losing month.

[/ QUOTE ]

Are you suggesting people 2+2ers play 16-17 sit-n-gos daily to hit 500? Wow.

[jackdaniels]

And you didnt account for any days off, sick time or anything else! If you want to make it more appealing, 4 table the SNG's, play 20 days a month (giving you weakends off for good behaviour) and you'll wind up playing about 25 a day or (assuming an average of 1 hour per game/4 tabling) - 6-7 hours of work, 5 days a week.

Assuming you are playing the 20's and have a 35% ROI you are looking at making about $3,500/month or roughly $28/hour. Sure beats that McDicks gig for min wage but most people good enough to make that coin in poker can do a lot better with a dumb corporate job (where you get benefits and slack off most of the day - heck, I'm writing this while "working" at my dumb corporate job [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]). You really have to enjoy playing the game to do it for a living - otherwise, you'll find yourself hating it very soon and possibly being short of other options when the realization dawns on you.

[valenzuela]

Your graphic is:
-useful to ppl like who have played like only 80 sngs( since i started counting winnings)
-entertaining.
-slightly disapointing, what was the worst and the best simulation you got in each set of ROIs? I would really love to know( even though its totally unpractical unless you play sngs for the next 8000 years. )

[Pokerscott]

[ QUOTE ]
Your graphic is:
-slightly disapointing, what was the worst and the best simulation you got in each set of ROIs? I would really love to know( even though its totally unpractical unless you play sngs for the next 8000 years. )

[/ QUOTE ]

This one I can answer without looking back at the analysis [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

The min/max results are just the best/worst possible (e.g. The 50 SnG max is a first in all 50 and the min is a blank in all 50). In other words, if you did enough Monte Carlo trials, you would eventually get a trial that was the 'best' and a trial that was the 'worst'.

The percentiles are helpful in that they can tell you how likely you are to be better or worse than a given outcome. The min/max are not very helpful since if you give me enough trials I can get any outcome.

I guess maybe having more of the tail results could be interesting (such as the 99.9% and 99.99%). That part of the distribution is probably least likely to be normal, but do you really want to know it [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Pokerscott

[valenzuela]

YES!

[ReDeYES88]

. .is it just me, or is anyone else having problems seeing the pretty pictures. . .they won't load. . [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

[Pokerscott]

If you are having trouble seeing the images in this post, I updated the images and reposted the information in this thread.

Pokerscott