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#52
03-16-2005, 05:02 PM
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Re: Is this too weak tight?
I just don't like moving allin with TT here, I don't know what to say. In a normal game, I'd never dream of anything but folding here unless I knew something about my opponent, or the stacks were really deep. Maybe this all changes in a $20 tournament but I'd be surprised. 
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#53
03-16-2005, 05:04 PM
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Re: Is this too weak tight?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Still, TT is a miserable underdog to that range, he's out of position, not desperate, etc, etc. Folding here isn't just a good play, IMO, it's by far the best play. [/ QUOTE ] Wow, someone who resolutely agrees with my play. We have definately gotten off topic regarding the assumptions here. Once again, I view this hand as a 50/50 chance of winning IF villain has AK. The fact that I could be dominated does also push me in favor of folding here. [/ QUOTE ] You are starting to sell me on the fold. I'm not sure I'd fold, but I'm not sure it's wrong either. I'm also more convinced that you weren't the hero in your Standard? post.
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#54
03-16-2005, 05:13 PM
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Re: Is this too weak tight?
Hoho. I do a degree in maths (I found the number of threads working out the % of cards flopping etc very amusing). Mathematically, all those saying he should do anything but fold here are just plain, utterly, wrong. I'm amazed there is even discussion.
Of Villians likely 56 raising hands, 24 dominate you, and your out of position so even if you get your 9-high flop your screwed. The remaining 32 hands he isnt calling all his chips if he doesnt hit. This is a no brainer.
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#55
03-16-2005, 05:15 PM
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Re: Is this too weak tight?
[ QUOTE ]
I just don't like moving allin with TT here, I don't know what to say. In a normal game, I'd never dream of anything but folding here unless I knew something about my opponent, or the stacks were really deep. Maybe this all changes in a $20 tournament but I'd be surprised. [/ QUOTE ] I understand what you're saying, and I agree-- when the stakes are higher. I need to do some data-mining to back up my feeling about the typical $20+2 player. I'll admit that. I'm basing my play suggestion on the feeling I've gotten after playing a bunch of $10+1/$20+2 games. I believe that the typical opponent overvalues his hand pre-flop. This typical opponent has a dramatically larger range for raising -- even when out of position, including UTG -- than you would expect from a typical "solid" player.
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#56
03-16-2005, 05:18 PM
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Re: Is this too weak tight?
[ QUOTE ]
Hoho. I do a degree in maths (I found the number of threads working out the % of cards flopping etc very amusing). Mathematically, all those saying he should do anything but fold here are just plain, utterly, wrong. I'm amazed there is even discussion. Of Villians likely 56 raising hands, 24 dominate you, and your out of position so even if you get your 9-high flop your screwed. The remaining 32 hands he isnt calling all his chips if he doesnt hit. This is a no brainer. [/ QUOTE ] You're completely ignoring "re-raise all-in" as an option. Which might make it a no-brainer, but not the no-brainer you suggest.
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#57
03-16-2005, 06:11 PM
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Re: Is this too weak tight?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Once again, I view this hand as a 50/50 chance of winning IF villain has AK. The fact that I could be dominated does also push me in favor of folding here. [/ QUOTE ] If AK|AQ is in his pre-flop raising range -- which I think is reasonable for the typical player at this level -- then you have a better than 50% chance of winning this bet IF he calls over time, regardless of what he shows down in this instance. Bigwig's probably right about this typical player in that 99|AJ|KQ could be added to his range. If this is the case, you're at least a 60% favorite, considering the number of card combinations that (1) dominate TT, (2) are even with TT, and (3) are dominated by TT. And we have to consider fold equity. There's a chance that you will knock AK|AQ|KQ|AJ out of the pot. Maybe even QQ|JJ (but let's not get our hopes up [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]). Finally, we have to consider whether it's worth it if he calls and you win. You'll have ~2200 chips; given your mid-game and bubble skills, you're definitely ITM. I push pre-flop. I think I'm a 60+% favorite if he calls, but I'm happy to take the chips right now. You're right Chuck, he might have you beat. But that's always the case every time you play a hand. [/ QUOTE ] Huh? TT has about 48.2% equity vs AA-99, AK-AJ, & KQ, not 60+%.
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#58
03-16-2005, 06:17 PM
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Re: Is this too weak tight?
It always seems to come down to 'call in a low buyin, fold in a high buyin', but if he overvalues his hand you have to worry more about A, K, Q, or J on the flop. If you are at a higher limit against a player you think knows the value of hands, then you can be more confident about your read that he doesn't want to be called and that that then means AK or low PP and not KJo.
[this post is not particularly well placed in response to spentrent or even really what curtains was saying - more of a general response that sort of fits in ]
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