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#1
03-16-2005, 09:55 AM
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Expect the unexpected
NCAA Tourney. The big dance. And as always upset city.
Year after year without fail I see guys wandering around the office shaking their heads and muttering "I can't believe so and so lost!" And in addition to the big time losers are the big timers who don't cover while winning getting much more competition than they bargained for. I solved this mystery years ago by betting all the + points teams in the first rounds on Thursday and Friday. I do it for fun and it is very typically much better than break even. My theory is the big teams are tight, the little guys have nothing to lose and are loose as can be, the neutral court has a huge leveling factor and there is a whole lot more parity than anyone is ever willing to admit. For the most part these are 18-20 year olds and anything can happen and usually does. When that kid from Podunk gets hot and hits 12 3's in a row don't forget I told you so [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] 
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#2
03-16-2005, 04:02 PM
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Re: Expect the unexpected
I agree with your post and was wondering if anyone knows how often big spreads ie 15+ points are covered in the early rounds of the tourney. It seems like these faves would pull their starters so they will be fresher for later games.
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#3
03-16-2005, 04:08 PM
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Re: Expect the unexpected
What's the spread on Univ. of Podunk, anyways?
I'm betting all the games this year, mostly as a lark. When in doubt, I'm taking the big points -- come on, Duke -26? Prediction: I'm gonna get schooled. ElSapo
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#4
03-16-2005, 04:38 PM
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Re: Expect the unexpected
"On the other hand, do not be afraid to lay heavy chalk because favorites at -14.5 or greater were a solid 42-32 ATS (57%). This was easily the best performing price range among favorites in our study."
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#5
03-16-2005, 04:40 PM
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Re: Expect the unexpected
llxc- is there anyway i could take a look at that study or talk to you about it..if you want to email me the numbers from the study email bushrage@aol.com...thanks a lot
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#6
03-16-2005, 04:43 PM
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Re: Expect the unexpected
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#8
03-17-2005, 11:43 AM
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Re: Expect the unexpected
We were in Vegas first weekend last year, and my buddies did this the entire weekend (bet the dogs with the points) - they were well above break even. Very small stakes, but 9 or 10 games up, I think.
MP
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#9
03-18-2005, 01:09 AM
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Re: Expect the unexpected
I really wish I was more confident about this and didn't do just the usual fun parlay with the change in my Pinny acct.
Check this: 8-Team Parlay Risk: 1.31 To Win: 214.38 1. Win 17-Mar Basketball/NCAA (Spread) Tennessee Chat (+17.5) vs Wake Forest for Game (-110) 54 - 70 2. Win 17-Mar Basketball/NCAA (Spread) Fair Dickinson (+26.5) vs Illinois for Game (-110) 55 - 67 3. Win 17-Mar Basketball/NCAA (Spread) Eastern Kentucky (+16) vs Kentucky for Game (-105) 64 - 72 4. Win 17-Mar Basketball/NCAA (Spread) Montana (+20.5) vs Washington U for Game (-110) 77 - 88 5. Win 17-Mar Basketball/NCAA (Spread) Winthrop (+13.5) vs Gonzaga for Game (-120) 64 - 74 6. 18-Mar-05 Basketball/NCAA (Spread) Central Florida (+19) vs Connecticut for Game (-110) Pending 7. 18-Mar-05 Basketball/NCAA (Spread) Delaware State (+26.5) vs Duke for Game (-110) Pending 8. 18-Mar-05 Basketball/NCAA (Spread) SE Louisiana (+18.5) vs Oklahoma State for Game (-110) Pending If I had $20 riding on it there would definitely be some serious hedging going on, maybe I will now if it gets down to the last game or two...we'll see. If I bet $50 on each game individually I'd be happy regardless of the outcomes tomorrow [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]
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