Idol experts? What do I do with these worthless Idol contracts?

[guppy]

Granny and others:

I am currently long on Anwar, Bo, Nadia, and male winner, short on Carrie.

Unfortunately, I'm also holding onto some useless contracts on Constantine and Anthony, which all tanked almost immediately after I bought them.

Was there any good time in the past when I could/should have gotten out of these?

Now that I'm still holding them, is it worth bothering to cash them out at 1 or 2 for a few pennies, or just wait and pray for miracles?

Thanks.

[Daliman]

Not sure what you were thinking when you bought these guys. They both suck. Not JPL or John Stevens suck, mind you, but suck nonetheless. Yer pretty screwed on them.

I'd sell anwar now if you have profit on him, and Bo too, and load up on Nadia. The carrie short is solid.

[GrannyMae]

[ QUOTE ]
Granny and others:

I am currently long on Anwar, Bo, Nadia, and male winner, short on Carrie.

Unfortunately, I'm also holding onto some useless contracts on Constantine and Anthony, which all tanked almost immediately after I bought them.

Was there any good time in the past when I could/should have gotten out of these?

Now that I'm still holding them, is it worth bothering to cash them out at 1 or 2 for a few pennies, or just wait and pray for miracles?

Thanks.

[/ QUOTE ]

heya..

first, imho, dali's advice:
I'd sell anwar now if you have profit on him, and Bo too, and load up on Nadia.

is horrible. i expect anwar and bo to be 1,2 so i would not sell them. i expect carrie will be 3, and nadia 4.

re: the other contracts, it depends on how many you have and whenther that $1 you would get for them is meaningful. if it is no biggie, hold them. one breakout performance could pump the contracts up a few bucks. it is still very early in the season.

i have 300+ of these type contracts that i bought to speculate with. i'm holding them. if the prices don't go up, i'm counting on my one pay to cover all of this.

my 2 cents

[astroglide]

my big debate now is whether or not carrie has a great performance left in her. if she does i would still take nadia over her, but it would give a nice lay with her shares going up and nadia's going down. selling carrie for nadia now or later might be the only decent decision left to make.

[Daliman]

Bo is a one trick pony that I think America will tire of, and he didn't do nearly as well as the judges said he did. I am still holding on the boy bias factor, which seems a definite possibility. No AF or Nikko in bottom 3 goes towards that school of thought. I am just saying who has the most talent, charisma, and best total package, and it's Nadia, and it isn't close. Granny likely agrees and is strictly making better-educated market decisions. I am not discounting the distinct possibilty that there will be a Tamyra Gray - style dumping at 4-5 left of Nadia, but she WILL escalate in vaule, and I can see Bo and Anwar not only not going up much along the way, but dropping alot as soon as they figure out they're not that great.

P.S. Vocals: Daliman > Bo , Daliman < Anwar (But more versatile)

Soul: Daliman > Anwar Daliman > Bo Bo > Anwar

[jdl22]

I haven't seen a single episode of the show but you clearly are giving advice based on bad reasoning here.

[ QUOTE ]


I'd sell anwar now if you have profit on him, and Bo too, and load up on Nadia. The carrie short is solid.


[/ QUOTE ]

Clearly how much you paid for the shares is not relevant. If his shares are expected to be more valuable later then they should be held onto. If they are expected to go down then of course sell, but the buying price isn't relevant because that can't be recovered for better or worse.

[Daliman]

[ QUOTE ]
I haven't seen a single episode of the show but you clearly are giving advice based on bad reasoning here.

[ QUOTE ]


I'd sell anwar now if you have profit on him, and Bo too, and load up on Nadia. The carrie short is solid.


[/ QUOTE ]

Clearly how much you paid for the shares is not relevant. If his shares are expected to be more valuable later then they should be held onto. If they are expected to go down then of course sell, but the buying price isn't relevant because that can't be recovered for better or worse.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is true. I guess what I meant to say is that I don't feel anwar or BO have much more upward mobility.

[RollaJ]

[ QUOTE ]

Clearly how much you paid for the shares is not relevant. If his shares are expected to be more valuable later then they should be held onto. If they are expected to go down then of course sell, but the buying price isn't relevant because that can't be recovered for better or worse.

[/ QUOTE ]

Another thing to consider is this......
If you are playing with a limited bankroll, and over the next 5 weeks you expect:

Anwar to go from 34-39 to 40-45

and

Nadia to go from 16-21 to 28-32

Youd still do better off selling Anwar now, and buying Nadia, and then reallocating your funds in 5 weeks

[rusty JEDI]

Bo is a one trick pony that I think America will tire of

This should have read Anwar....

I Phoned home to wish my dad a happy birthday and I brought up AI because i know my parents watch it. He said that my mom said "Why did Anwar sing such a horrible old song." My dad told her "What do you think he sung last week?"

Even my parents are picking up on it, and the judges hinted at it too on Tuesday. He will do something different this week and it will not be good. He will then go back to his old style and people will get bored of him and he will be gone by 4 left.

rJ

[astroglide]

his audition and his final performance to get into the top 12 have been his best. you think that's a coincidence on such key moments? people vastly underestimate peoples' abilities to throttle back for playing the game's sake. if i were in his shoes i would do performances that were good or very good, not great. enough to get to the next level, then blow their heads off with the real performances when it actually counts. he showed us what he is capable of when he sang what a wonderful world and he's not an idiot.