nines at a tight/aggressive table

[DMBFan23]

[ QUOTE ]
Even tens up might just call now with the flush out there. If you get raised you can definitely fold unless the player has a history.


[/ QUOTE ]

even if tens up is just going to call, I dont think that makes a bet any more or less correct. you may still be right about a bet though.

EDIT: unless you were just trying to say that a raise DEFINITELY means a better hand, and then yes I agree folding to a raise is a must

[einbert]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Even tens up might just call now with the flush out there. If you get raised you can definitely fold unless the player has a history.


[/ QUOTE ]

even if tens up is just going to call, I dont think that makes a bet any more or less correct. you may still be right about a bet though.

EDIT: unless you were just trying to say that a raise DEFINITELY means a better hand, and then yes I agree folding to a raise is a must

[/ QUOTE ]

Well it is in way. If we can fold to a raise 100% of the time, we have an extra incentive to value bet. We need be ahead only >50% of the time. If we must call the raise 100% of the time for fear of a bluff, we'd need to be ahead >=66% of the time for the bet to be correct.

If we make mistakes by incorrectly folding to a raise or give up chips by having to pay off when we're behind (which against an optimal opponent that bluffs at a proper frequency we will) that is one incentive for us to not bet.

[DMBFan23]

that's a good point, see my edit.

[BigEndian]

Numbers are not my thing, but shouldn't that be 75% if we have to call the raise all the time?

- Jim

[pyroponic]

[ QUOTE ]
boy...I don't like that...especially the fold to a raise part. This is a pretty big pot, and I'm not ready to fold to anyone. I'd rather take my free showdown here with 2 overcards and a 3 flush.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, this is better.

[jediael]

[ QUOTE ]

Well it is in way. If we can fold to a raise 100% of the time, we have an extra incentive to value bet. We need be ahead only >50% of the time. If we must call the raise 100% of the time for fear of a bluff, we'd need to be ahead >=66% of the time for the bet to be correct.

If we make mistakes by incorrectly folding to a raise or give up chips by having to pay off when we're behind (which against an optimal opponent that bluffs at a proper frequency we will) that is one incentive for us to not bet.

[/ QUOTE ]


Sorry, but this is just plain wrong. You need to be ahead 50% at least of the time given that you are called.

Which worse hand to you see the guy calling with in comparison to better hands he might call or raise with?
Not many.

[SteveGriff]

I'd value bet the river here. On the flop BB suggests that he has a made hand (maybe he's drawring who knows), but if your opponent raises on the river you can probably fold this hand with a clear concience.

Steve griff