How many SnG's to be confident of winrate?

SteamTrain · #1 03-15-2005, 02:48 AM

just curious how many SnG's I need to play to know my ITM is sustainable. I tried search, didn't find anything.

raptor517 · #2 03-15-2005, 02:52 AM

to nail down your roi within even 5 percentage points, you need over 2k. good luck getting there, its pretty grueling.

BradleyT · #3 03-15-2005, 02:59 AM

[ QUOTE ]
to nail down your roi within even 5 percentage points, you need over 2k. good luck getting there, its pretty grueling.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's only 4 weeks [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]

for you...

microbet · #4 03-15-2005, 03:03 AM

Just curious, I know you have played a lotta tourneys -

Have you played 4k at the same buyin and if so are the first 2k w/in 5% of the second? peace & wassup, er, i mean, holla.

raptor517 · #5 03-15-2005, 03:38 AM

well, i track on aleos spreadsheet. i dont have 4k at any 1 specific buyin, but im getting there. i have only been playing like this for just over a month and a half now, tho i used to 4 table quite a bit. anyways, i have sets of 750 with VASTLY different numbers. one set i have an 18.1% roi. on another set i have a 3.6% roi. in about a month i should be able to get back to you about sets of 2k, tho i am fairly sure my estimation are accurate. holla

Slim Pickens · #6 03-15-2005, 04:39 AM

So to answer your actual question [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img], ITM needs fewer tournaments to stabilize than ROI. About 500 (I think...) should get you pretty close, although it's entirely possible your true ITM could change during that time because you are learning things by playing a lot.

Slim

Blind Thief · #7 03-15-2005, 05:20 AM

i hit within three points of my current ITM at around 200 tourneys...and its held constant up to about 1k

GIMME YOUR BLINDS

Slim Pickens · #8 03-15-2005, 05:32 AM

I noted in a previous post that my ITM rate was something like 5% too low after 180 tournaments due to the Party Poker Suckout Algorithm (that horrifying two-second pause before someone rivers you on a two-outer) hitting me pretty hard, so I'd give it more like 500 to allow the results of all the showdowns you take to get within a few points of their EV. Mine was off by about 30% (low of course) and I translated that to my 5% ITM drop. I've got no idea what it did to my ROI though.

Slim

stigmata · #9 03-15-2005, 06:33 AM

Is there any way I can use A) my ROI B) variance and C) No. of SNGs, to make a calculation with the effect: "I can be 95% confident that my true ROI is between 15% and 25%"?

Like you can do for your BB/100 at standard ring games.

microbet · #10 03-15-2005, 12:04 PM

[ QUOTE ]
i am fairly sure my estimation are accurate. holla

[/ QUOTE ]

Your estimation is quite reasonable, but one set of 2k w/in 5% of another set of 2k won't prove it. If they were outside of 5% it wouldn't disprove it either, because conditions change over that many games, but it would beg for some explanation.

I think saabco is the only one who will be able to imperically prove anything about variance, but you are pretty close.