QJs - Your take on the turn

[crownjules]

The table had been pretty weak passive most of the afternoon. But a few newcomers were more on the LAG side and finally brought some action to the table.

Reads:
SB - A newcomer. Seemed like a good player from the limited play I saw of him so far.
BB - Slightly above average player, nothing really of note on reads other then that.
MP2 - Very LAGish preflop. He played the vast majority of his hands and raised a good number of them, often showing down top pair and junk.
Button - LAG, this guy a few hands earlier had 3-bet my raise with AJo. Had seen him 3-bet other similar hands.


Foxwoods $2/4. 9 handed

Preflop: Hero is CO with Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
Fold to MP2 who calls, Hero calls, Button Calls, SB completes, BB raises, MP2 3-bets, Hero calls, Button calls, SB calls, BB calls.

This was a loose call, but I didn't particularly respect MP2's limp-reraise. I probably should have folded, but I called.

Flop: (15 SB) T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img](5 handed)
SB checks, BB checks, MP2 bets, Hero calls, Button calls, SB raises, BB calls, MP2 calls, Hero calls, Button calls.

Turn: (12.5 BB) J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (5 handed)
SB checks, BB checks, MP2 bets, Hero calls, Button calls, SB raises, BB 3-bets, MP2 caps, Hero ?


Up until this point, I feel like I played fine (save for perhaps a raise on the flop when it came to me the first time). With the action, it seems like TT, JJ, and/or 99 are are big possibilities of hands being played. Four outs to the boat, two outs to the straight flush. I don't feel like anything less then those has a chance at winning this hand.

The odds laid to me are 22.5:3, or 7.5:1. How good would you feel calling 3 cold in this situation?

EDIT: Corrected myself. I had four outs to the boat, not just two. But perhaps should discount that to account for higher pocket pairs being out there?

[@bsolute_luck]

i don't play 2/4 (too high for me) so take this for what it's worth, but i would guess the TT and/or the JJ are out there for the boat.

you've got the pot odds to call. i think i added up all the bets to be 2 outs 28:1 odds (figure all but one guy calls) - i don't think i could do it [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img] , but that's why i don't play 2/4 [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img]

[Sasnak]

Limping in preflop is fine and I'll call one more back to me everytime. But is it good to call two more bets with someone still to act behind you whom raised to begin with?

As for the river I'd fold to a capped bet, but on the other hand if I called all the way up to this point I would most likely chase the straight flush too.

[droolie]

I'd raise this pf.

I'd raise the flop.

Given the flop action the turn is very tricky. There's no way I'm folding this. I'm not giving anybody credit for a boat yet (though it wouldn't surprise me if SB flopped one.) You have at least 2 outs to the mortal nuts and all kinds of ways to feel good about winning this hand. Any diamond that doesn't pair the board any 8, 9, J or K would keep me interested in seeing a showdown in what is a HUGE pot.

[hate]

I fold to 2 cold on the turn. BB's check/3-bet is a gigantic monster, he's just not going to play a straight like that on a very dangerous board for him. His preflop raise, I'd put him on no less than TT or JJ, and you're drawing to second best unless your 2-outer hits. Please note I'm treating this like it were an online game, and you're saying that BB is above-average.

[btspider]

[ QUOTE ]
The odds laid to me are 22.5:3, or 7.5:1. How good would you feel calling 3 cold in this situation?

[/ QUOTE ]

PF: raise the first time

flop: put more bets in... call and then 3-bet.

turn: fold facing 3 bets.. we need about 5.5 outs. our 2 sf outs should make 10-12 BB's on the river.. so let's count them as 3 outs (to account for implied). this leaves needing about 2.5 outs from straights, flushes, and boats. i started breaking it down and just left the J bit. K's and 8's are massively discounted and the flush could be a loser as well. we have *no* implied odds to count on here (after counting on those 10-12 BB's above). we'll catch and lose more often than we catch and win.

--
if we catch a J, we're probably splitting given that everyone woke up on it. at best its probably .5 outs. we lose to 99 or could be dead (for boat potential) vs JJ.

J = .4 outs

9 is the card everyone is waking up on. this is not an out. we'll run into quads, TT, or JJ too often.

9 = .01 outs

[crownjules]

Thanks for the input guys. This was a really interesting hand, as you'll see.

I chose to fold. I felt that my only chances of winning given this action were if I landed one of my 2 SF outs. None of these players were particularly bad players in my estimation, save maybe MP2, but even he hadn't exhibited this much aggression.

So, here's the end of the turn, river, and results.

Turn: (12.5 BB) J [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (5 handed)
SB checks, BB checks, MP2 bets, Hero calls, Button calls, SB raises, BB 3-bets, MP2 caps, Hero folds, Button folds, SB calls, BB calls.

River: (26.5 BB) J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 handed)
SB checks, BB bets, MP2 raises, SB calls, BB 3-bets, MP2 calls, SB calls.

Total pot: 35.5 BB

Results in white
<font color="white"> SB flips 10c 9c for nines full of tens
BB flips Ah Jh for jacks full of nines
MP2 flips Kd Qc for the king high straight
Button said he was on the Ace high diamond flush draw


Unfortunately, I folded half of a $142 pot. </font> [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]