fire the second barrel? short-stacked 5-5 NL

[ArtVandelay]

Full 5-5 NL in NYC; game is LAGish and quite tough. Everyone has at least some idea what they're doing, and some of the players are quite strong (tricky, good hand readers, etc.)

Average stack is 1k, but I bought in for the minimum 300 because I don't feel like I have much of an edge, if any; I'm mainly playing for education. Until this hand I've been extremely tight, limped a few times but never put in money post-flop. My opponent has 1k and is LAG; only other info I have is he bet 200 (pot) on a river and then showed Q-high (busted flush draw) after both opponents folded. On to the hand...

Three limpers and I limp on the button with Tc9c, blinds check. Flop is AhJc5d, and it's checked to me. Because of my image I think I can pick it up a decent percent of the time, so I bet 30 (pot). Folded around to villian in the cutoff who calls. I get a slight physical read that he doesn't like his hand (something like a bad ace), but I wouldn't place to much confidence in it.

90 in the pot, I have 200, my opponent has me covered. Turn is the 8c making the board AhJc5d8c and giving me the OESFD. My opponent checks. What's my play?

[AZK]

Hopefully he isn't giving you a reverse tell. This is a pretty easy push in my opinion because of your image alone. Even without image, If you have him pegged on a one pair type hand then I'm definintely pushing if he is a smart lag, he will know to lay down to you, even if he doesn't you have a boat load of outs.

On the other hand, this is difficult because you don't feel comfortable playing in this game and it doesn't sound like you want to put any more $ in play. If you have been playing like a rock all night long then this is an easy push since you have a lot of folding equity since you are probably pegged as uber-tigh it might even do some wonders for the metagame considerations if you do happen to be called. The next step would be to then rebuy (for 1000) assuming he does call and you lose so that you could take advantage of your newfound image. It doesn't sound like you are going to do that though...


As a recommendation (numerous respected posters have given me this advice), It's better to buy in full at a limit you feel comfortable to learn how to play the game right, rather than buying in for the min. and looking for a quick score. Basically your 300 at 1/2 with worse players is MUCH better than your 300 at 5/5 with a bunch of smart lags who have you way covered. I have lost several grand in the last month trying to play in bigger games with short buyins looking to get "lucky"....

[turnipmonster]

I used to enjoy your posts back in the day. if this is the PS game I'm curious who the player is, but against most LAGs in that game you should check.

--turnipmonster

[ArtVandelay]

thanks for the ideas AZK; two things though

1. if I do decide to bet, is pushing correct? I fear that a push looks more like what I have (a draw), while a pot-type bet looks like I want to get my made hand paid off

2. I'm not trying to get lucky; as I said, I'm not in the game to make money... sure I could buy in 500 to the 1/2 NL and crush it, but I wouldn't learn anything... my goal here is to improve my game through observation of strong players, and buying in for 300 to a tough 5/5 game is a cheap way to watch strong players

[ArtVandelay]

thanks turnip (;... I'm impressed you remember (been almost 2 years since I was a regular here)

yeah, it's the PS game, but I don't know who my opponent was

[PoBoy321]

Is your opponent one of the good, tricky, strong players? If he is, you might have more fold equity with a smallish bet where it looks like you're trying to get value out of your hand rather than another pot-sized bet where it looks like you're trying to get him out of the pot. It all depends on how many levels of thinking you think he can go into.

That being said, I think that it would be a good idea to fire a second barrel, probably about $75 would be a good sized bet. Since you're not leaving a huge amount of money behind, your villain might think that you're trying to pot commit him so that you can get the rest of it in on any river, and of course, you've got about a bazillion outs that you can hit on the end if you're called.

[turnipmonster]

no pushing is not as good for the reasons you state, you are more likely to get looked up. I think your best betting amount is 75 if that's what you decide to do. but, people are very suspicious of short stacks in this game and you should expect to get looked up a fair amount. for that same reason your kicker will often make you money.

--turnipmonster

[ArtVandelay]

I have three basic plays: check, pot-ish size bet, and all-in... here's my E.V. for each play...

check: assume I never try to bluff (hard for it to work after checking the turn), and suppose I get paid off 90 more with probability p when I hit... I make my hand about a third of the time, so my total equity is 30 + 30 * p

all-in: assume I get called with probability q... when he folds I just pick up 90, and when he calls I win 490 a little less than a third of the time; so my equity is (1-q)*90+q*(160 - 200) = 90 - 130 * q

bet 100: suppose he pushes with probability r and just calls with probability s... in the first case I clearly call and my equity is then -40 as before... if he just calls assume I never push him off but he always pays me off (reasonable given I'd only have 1/3 pot left in my stack), so in this situation my equity is 490 - 100 = 390 when I hit and -100 when I miss, for a total equity of about 60... so total equity from betting 100 is (1-r-s)*90+r*(-40)+s*(60) = 90 - 130 * r - 30 * s


now, of course, the whole game is guessing at how likely my opponent is to make various plays (i.e., what are p,q,r, and s?)

here's one range of guesses, given that he called the flop:

p = 0.5
q = 0.3
r = 0.1
s = 0.2

plugging these in to the above formulae we find:
E.V. of checking = 45
E.V. of pushing = 50
E.V. of potting = 70


at the table I didn't do all the math, but my instincts said bet 100 so that's what I did; villian pushed almost instantly (damn, bad read... at least I knew not to place too much stock in it), and I called just as quickly... river was a 7 giving me the nuts and I scooped a 500 pot off a runner-runner straight d;