Level jumps, cold cards?

[ckessel]

I'm wondering, do people have some sort of psychological block jumping levels. I'm about going crazy. I kill 2/4 and build up enough and move to 3/6. Every time I get slaughtered, not just lose, but crushed. I'm not sure what to make of it. My stats are the same as far as agression and preflop, but soon as I move up things go cold.

Today in about 3 hours I got an astounding 5 AA and 6KK dealt (over about 400 hands). I lost every single one dropping nearly $400, something that'll take me 50-60 hours to build back at 2/4.

Partly bad beats, but I'm thinking there must be something in my play that falls apart when i move up. What have others that successfully moved up noticed that got harder in playing their hands?

[TMFS9]

I just moved up to 3/6. Some people have said they haven't noticed a difference and others have claimed that there is a fairly substantial difference. I kind of fall somewhere in the middle, there is a difference but IMO if you can solidly beat 2/4 you should be able to do well at 3/6.

I just cleared a bonus at 2/4 on Pokerroom and I find that the Party 3/6 plays a lot like the Pokerroom 2/4. One suggestion would maybe go play at a site that has a reputation of being tighter ie Pokerroom, Stars, UB. That way you could adjust to a slightly different style table before you jump up in stakes.

[deacsoft]

If you're consistantly beating the 2/4 game why not just stay there until your roll is huge? I play as high as 5-10 and still play some .50/1 because I can own it.

[Peter-23]

I don’t know, maybe this is completely wrong but since variance is so big in poker and up- downswings are normal I think perhaps it’s wrong to go down to 2/4 or perhaps you should wait to go up until you have a bigger roll. (Especially since the hands you lost with are the strongest).

I mean the dealing of the cards themselves don’t “know” what level you are playing.

If you are on an upswing and reach a certain bankroll and decide to go up you might get the “normal” downswing on the higher level.

If you then go down to catch up you have a bigger uphill since the stakes are lower.

Perhaps you should build a bigger bankroll before you go up and stay longer when you do next time.

[ckessel]

I generally wait until I have 300BB for my current level (1200 for 2/4) plus 30BB for the next level. This time I actually had about 70BB for the next level. I take a shot, if I don't make it, I still have 300BB for my 2/4 level.

As for why not stick at 2/4. Well, two reasons. I want to get better, and in the back of my mind I'd love to make real $/hr at this someday. To do that I feel I need to move up a level or 2 at some point.

It's hard though. I'm at about 3.5 BB/100 at 2/4 over 15k hands. I'm at like -4 Bb/100 at 3/5 over about 2500 hands.

[Peter-23]

(I assume you mean 70BB for 3/6 level i.e. $420.)

I don’t know your play but for my last 20k hands I have had at least 3 downswings that have been bigger than 70BB, but I have never had a 100BB or more (so far).

Remember that if you lose the 70BB at the new level so you will have to go down, you will have to build it up one more time to try again that’s 140BB or $840 build for both times!

If you waited until you had 100BB or $600 you will be in a much better position. That’s 40BB less than if it takes two attempts to stay at the higher level or 110BB ($660) less than if it takes three with the 70BB margin.

To go up to soon makes you stay down for much longer due to risk that it takes multiple attempts.
(unless you are lucky and hit an upswing when you go up)

100BB would be the requirements for me though. The margin required are player related so try to work out where your numbers would be. Just remember the penalty for underestimate is more work, much more work!

[John Deere]

I have been playing 3/6 for at least 5 months now, and my problem is with months. I get crushed at the beginning of every month, to the point where I now almost expect it. I always finish the month strong, though.

The past two months, I have started with 180BB downswings. It happens. One night, I went 0-for-13 with AA, KK, QQ, JJ, AK, AQ and AJ (combined). It happens.

It's almost easier losing with these hands, though, because you can have some confidence that it's not you who is doing something wrong. When you go 0-for-11 with AA and KK, you must know that it is not all your fault (although perhaps you could have minimized the damage). You just have to play through it.

[Vern]

2500 hands is nothing for a sample size, actually 15K aint that much either, but it is better. Set a stop loss, if you move up when you have 300BB, move down when you only have 300 left the level below. Just stick to it and don't get discouraged by variance.

I ran some variance sims assuming a normal win/rate of 1.5BB/100 hands a normal variance of 15BB/100 hands over 2500 hands, I only had to run a couple before I got this:



Then I ran it out to 25K hands, I clicked a couple of times and got this:



Varaince is just the poker bitch. Like I said, don't let results discourage you. Play solid poker, read, post/reply here and you will do fine long term, just remember to not overextend your bank roll. 300BB is not a magic number it is a recommendation. I have had some sims come back with -450BB down swings over the course of 10million hands so it can happen. My recommendation is just set a stop loss, if you move up when you have 300BB, move down when you have 300BB of the level below you.

I cannot find Homer's post at the moment, but I suggest you search the forums for his stuff on variance, it is very good.

Vern

Standard Disclaimer, I am by no means an expert at any of this.

[PokerBob]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm wondering, do people have some sort of psychological block jumping levels. I'm about going crazy. I kill 2/4 and build up enough and move to 3/6. Every time I get slaughtered, not just lose, but crushed. I'm not sure what to make of it. My stats are the same as far as agression and preflop, but soon as I move up things go cold.

Today in about 3 hours I got an astounding 5 AA and 6KK dealt (over about 400 hands). I lost every single one dropping nearly $400, something that'll take me 50-60 hours to build back at 2/4.

Partly bad beats, but I'm thinking there must be something in my play that falls apart when i move up. What have others that successfully moved up noticed that got harder in playing their hands?

[/ QUOTE ]

Post the hands.

[Bob T.]

Peter had a good idea. Wait until you have a bigger margin, and then the small swings won't make such a difference.

30 BBs in online poker isn't a margin at all. It is barely a buy in.

It sounds like you have been running bad, and maybe a little tilty too ( which can be expected if you are running bad at a higher limit than you are used to.)

I got my ass handed to me, several times at 5/10, before I was able to stay up there.

I recommend that until you get used to the stakes, that you play shorter sessions with a strict stop/loss, and stop/win limit on the order of 10-15 big bets. After each of these short sessions, take a break, analyze what went right or wrong, and then play another short session. After a while, you will be more used to the swings that occur, and you can take the training wheels off.