Do you think there is too much luck in hold'em?

[Munga30]

[ QUOTE ]
Of all the forms of poker currently spread in casinos and online (the exception would probably be high draw, spread on Paradise), Hold'em has the smallest luck factor. i.e., the best hand dealt holds up the most often.

If you think there are too many suckouts in hold'em, don't play stud.

[/ QUOTE ]

You're talking about two different things. HE hands run further apart than O8 hands, but limit holdem has what I consider a higher "luck factor" because the variance is higher. Winners win more consistently and losers lose more consistently in limit 08, limit omaha, limit stud-8 and NLHE, not necessarily in that order. Razz probably has higher "luck factor" that straight stud.

[TomCollins]

Isn't 9998 worse in O/8? Or even 9999?

[Zetack]

Interesting, I was just pondering the luck factor the other day.

I've been crushed at work and haven't really been able to play, but when the Party 200 Bonus came along I didn't want to turn down free money, so I decided to play the .5/1.00 to clear it. Basically because I didn't have the time to sit down and play my usual schedule, and I'd be playing tired, and I wanted to be able to cut my sessions short and walk away without worrying too much about my results if I had to.

So I got about half way through and was cruising along enjoying myself at the juicy micro games. Usually I was on four tables all over 35 % to the flop with a couple of tables usually in the forties. Multiple players over 50 percent to the flop. Passive. Loose. Juicy. Even so I wasn't crushing the games, running around 2 BB/100 for the tiny sample size of about half the hands I needed to clear the bonus.

Then I sat down to play a session and got crushed. Seriously pounded. At one point I was down further than I've ever been in a session. Ever. It was ridiculous. If I'd been playing my regular stakes I'd have been pretty upset. As it was I felt a little odd getting crushed by the juicy micro game. I rallied to finish only down 43 big bets for the session over about 650 hands.

My next session, two nights later, I sat down and as ridiculously bad as my results had been the previous session they were that good this night. Everything seemed to hit and even my bluffs worked. 330 hands into it I cleared the bonus and stopped up 46 BB's.

So from one night to the next there's a difference of 90 BB's. That's a ridiculous amount of luck that factors in especially in the short term.

And even in the longer short term luck is a huge factor. I recently ran break even over 20k hands and when I posted about it got responses from good players who'd played underwater for over 30k hands. Which leads me to think that luck could have a quite measurable effect on winrate-say to the tune of .5 or .75 BB's per hundred even over hundreds of thousands of hands.

That's just nutty, for a game of skill.

And perhaps, despite how many of us hate the variance when the downside of it is bitch slapping us upside the head, its that unpredictability that turns it from an enjoyable hobby to a near obsession. That odd turn from feeling like an unbeatable poker god, to a total sluck that can't take a pot with a nut flush on the way to hundred's of BB downsings. And then back again.

Now if only luck will let me be a poker god for, oh, I don't know, 3 or 4 hundred thousands hands or so....

--Zetack

[k_squared]

One other thing to consider is that because of online play the number of hands we play on a given night has gone up significantly. If we play 4 tables we bet in well over 4 times as many hands in the same amount of time. So we experience the ups and downs of a swing that much more quickly.

-k_squared

[arcticfire]

[ QUOTE ]
luck is vertually non-exsistant like limit omaha8

This is total hogwash. In HE, a big pair is a 4:1 favorite over a lower pair preflop, which means the bigger pair holds up 80% of the time. In O/8, there is no 4-card combination that is a 4:1 favorite over any other 4-card combination (except quads, but nobody plays quads in O/8).

Example: AA23d is a 72:28 favorite over 9988o (generally accepted to be the worst hand in O/8)

NLHE is as popular as it is simply because of its portrayal on TV.

[/ QUOTE ]

You completly ignore the fact that in HE your hands value is partially dictated by how many people see the hand with you.

An example: AA is only has a "big advatange" if few people see the flop. AA is worthless if 9 people see the flop with you. AA23ds in O8 is just as good against 1 person as it is against 9 people and will win the same ratio of the time regardless of how many people see the flop or the river. AA cannot say the same.

Not to mention AA23 vs 9999 , AA23 win win EVERY time. Name me 2 HE hands you can compare against each other that any hand can say that.

Selectivly wishing HE hands are magicly better in odds then O8 hands is cute , but overall totally bogus.

[AngryCola]

[ QUOTE ]
An example: AA is only has a "big advatange" if few people see the flop. AA is worthless if 9 people see the flop with you.

[/ QUOTE ]

Hahahahahahahahaha!

Stop, you're just too "cute"!

Tell me then, which hand WOULD be worth something there?
Is KQs better? How about 9Ts or JTs?

[arcticfire]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
luck is vertually non-exsistant like limit omaha8

This is total hogwash. In HE, a big pair is a 4:1 favorite over a lower pair preflop, which means the bigger pair holds up 80% of the time. In O/8, there is no 4-card combination that is a 4:1 favorite over any other 4-card combination (except quads, but nobody plays quads in O/8).

Example: AA23d is a 72:28 favorite over 9988o (generally accepted to be the worst hand in O/8)

NLHE is as popular as it is simply because of its portrayal on TV.

[/ QUOTE ]

You completly ignore the fact that in HE your hands value is partially dictated by how many people see the hand with you.

An example: AA is only has a "big advatange" if few people see the flop. AA is worthless if 9 people see the flop with you. AA23ds in O8 is just as good against 1 person as it is against 9 people and will win the same ratio of the time regardless of how many people see the flop or the river. AA cannot say the same.

Not to mention AA23 vs 9999 , AA23 win win EVERY time. Name me 2 HE hands you can compare against each other that any hand can say that.

Edit: since you specificly decided to ignore quads which invalidate your point here is another. AA23 vs 9998 , AA23 won't beat it every time , but you better belive AA23 is gonna take part of the pot a heck of a lot more often then AA is going to win a holdem hand.

Selectivly wishing HE hands are magicly better in odds then O8 hands is cute , but overall totally bogus. The reality is luck is virtually non-exsistent in O8.

[/ QUOTE ]

[arcticfire]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
An example: AA is only has a "big advatange" if few people see the flop. AA is worthless if 9 people see the flop with you.

[/ QUOTE ]

Hahahahahahahahaha!

Stop, you're just too "cute"!

Tell me then, which hand WOULD be worth something there?
Is KQs better? How about 9Ts or JTs?

[/ QUOTE ]

No holdem hand is worth anything odds wise if 9 people see the flop , that was my point , try reading.

[AngryCola]

[ QUOTE ]

No holdem hand is worth anything odds wise if 9 people see the flop , that was my point , try reading.

[/ QUOTE ]

Wow.
I had read it, and it was funny. It still is.

I just read the above quote, too. Thankfully since I know how completely false this is, I won't have to be reading your posts again in the near future.

Thanks!

I'm sure others will elaborate.

[arcticfire]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

No holdem hand is worth anything odds wise if 9 people see the flop , that was my point , try reading.

[/ QUOTE ]

Wow.
I had read it, and it was funny. It still is.

I just read the above quote, too. Thankfully since I know how completely false this is, I won't have to be reading your posts again in the near future.

Thanks!

I'm sure others will elaborate.

[/ QUOTE ]

Good , I don't need to deal with your ego in my treads.