Good KK fold?

digitalis · #1 03-12-2005, 06:03 AM

The past few days I've had my premium pocket pairs cracked without mercy. KK especially, which has lost four times consecutively (no hints intended). I'm starting to get that "Oh no, not again" feeling when I have KK. Of course, I know its +EV to be aggressive with it and I continue to do so.

It has cost me a lot of money, so when I saw KK I said to myself: "Don't **** this up again. Be prepared to fold."

BB is 40/12/35/2, AF is 2.13. Loose, but showing down good hands.

Paradise Poker 0.25/0.50 Hold'em (9 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is SB with K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
4 folds, MP3 calls, CO calls, 1 fold, Hero raises, BB calls, MP3 calls, CO calls.

Flop: (8 SB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (4 players)
Hero bets, BB raises, MP3 folds, CO folds, Hero calls.

Coming out of the BB, I have to give credit for anything. I probably should have 3-bet here, but I admit I am tilting a little from all my KK loses

Turn: (6 BB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets, BB raises, Hero folds.

Final Pot: 9 BB

caggin · #2 03-12-2005, 07:24 AM

I would've 3-bet the flop. If he caps, I think I call down. His post flop aggression is pretty high, I think he'd play the same with a 9 or higher pocket pair (I would, especially since you didn't reraise the flop).

JoshuaD · #3 03-12-2005, 08:03 AM

I play the way he did with A9.

3-bet the flop. If he caps, check/call to the river.

See a showdown with your hand now that it's HU. Even if an A falls.

digitalis · #4 03-12-2005, 08:32 AM

I agree. I think the worst thing I did was not 3-betting the flop. I don't know why I didn't- must have been tilt.

I've let the sick beats I've been experiencing affect my game. I definitly would have 3-bet this before.

memphis57 · #5 03-12-2005, 08:35 AM

Yeah, I think you're tilting a little under the pressure of cracked KKs. You need to 3-bet the flop and at worse call down if he caps, don't fold it.

KK is strong, but still it only wins about 60-65% of hands. That means you're going to lose more than 1 in 3 and like all random events, they will bunch up and sometimes you'll lose 4 or 6 or 8 in a row. But don't change how you play it. Bet it aggressively until proven wrong, and win 60% of the time, and you'll come out way ahead in the long run. If you start trying to back off in cases where you feel you might lose, you will give up way more in profit than you would lose by betting strong and losing a few hands.

Also, on reads, you need a little more than just stats - like a subjective feel for how tricky the guy is. If this is a guy who never, never bluffs or semi-bluffs or represents more strength than he really has, then maybe I fold. But only then.

P.S. A little trick I use on consecutive beats - as mentioned, random events tend to bunch up, but even out over time. Thus, wins will bunch just as much as loses. Thus, if you have 2 consecutive cracked-kings, and if you win Ks 60% of the time, this means you must have 3 consecutive wins to even out the odds. Lose 4, and you'll win 6 straight - get my point? So don't get mad when you have that 6th consecutive KK cracked. you should get excited instead, looking forward to the 9 straight wins - wow what a streak that is going to be! That could put you up 50 BB.

Note: the above is not technically, strictly mathematically accurate (because cards have no memory) but there is still a kernel of truth in it, enough to help beat the tilt tendency.

digitalis · #6 03-12-2005, 08:51 AM

Heh, thanks for the advice. Unfortunately I've studied enough math to know that it really isn't true (but I'd like to believe it!) I try to console myself with knowledge of probabilty when I take a series of bad beats, but my brain just turns into mush sometimes. I think my BB/100 might be 1 unit higher if I took bad beats better.

To be honest, the other KKs I had were obvious folds and this one was an obvious call down.

MrEngenic · #7 03-12-2005, 09:08 AM

There can be NO folding this hand. You should 3-bet and if he caps, call down.
This is tilt, it's good that you identify it as such.

memphis57 · #8 03-12-2005, 10:10 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Unfortunately I've studied enough math to know that it really isn't true (but I'd like to believe it.

[/ QUOTE ]

Okay then, if you've studied math then you won't buy the has-to-even-out argument, but here is the kernel part that IS true - say to yourself "the determination that KK is a good hand which deserves to be played strongly includes the assumption of many, many losses over my playing career, including the 4 straight that I just experienced." Now don't you agree that statement is completely true matematically?