Hedging bets in the 2H

[LLXC]

Is it usually good to hedge bets in the second half? I probably should have hedged today in two games. For example, Utah was up 14 after the half. UNLV -1 2H. So if Utah wins by 7-12, I win 4 units. If Utah wins by more than 14 or less than 7, I lose the juice of 2 units. If Utah wins by 13, I win my initial 2 units. Is this an +EV play in the long run? Thanks.

[QuickLearner]

I'm not a fan of hedging in this case. It reduces your risk but also the payoff. I might be if I noticed something while watching the first half that made me fear my original play.

Here's an idea for hedging but you won't be able to use it before next football season...at least not without modification.

During football I would line up a series of plays for the week in this fashion. The Thursday game when there was one, the Saturday game (college or pro early), Saturday game (college or pro late), the Sunday game (early), Sunday game (late), and the Monday game.

Five or 6 games in series, none starting before the previous finished. Make a whole bunch of those series. Parlay each series so you have a bunch of six-teamers. If the first game wins, hedge the to win the cost of the original parlay for the second game; if the second wins, hedge the cost of the original parlay plus your losing first game hedge bet. Etcetera. If you're any good at all you'll find one, two or a few of your big parlays still live when the final game starts. It used to give me a reason to pay attention to the games, and it occasionally rewarded me big time. At worst, you broke even and gave all your outs some action.

Square, huh? [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[tech]

If you think the 2H bet is +EV by itself, bet it. If you don't, then don't. The fact that you have the other bet going really shouldn't matter at all.

Try not to be so results-oriented. I had Utah too. Good bet, bad result. It happens.