Question

[JPhilGolf101]

Why when you calculate probablilty do you not consider the chance of the card you need being dealt already.

Lets say going to the river you AA and you are all in Against KK and the flop and turn are K K A 2. Would your chances be 1/44? Why not include the chances of that card being folded or burned...?

[William Notell]

[ QUOTE ]
Why when you calculate probablilty do you not consider the chance of the card you need being dealt already.

Lets say going to the river you AA and you are all in Against KK and the flop and turn are K K A 2. Would your chances be 1/44? Why not include the chances of that card being folded or burned...?

[/ QUOTE ]

You ARE including the chance that the missing Ace has been burned. It was burned with probability 2/44 and is still in the deck with probability 42/44. If burned, the river card can't be the Ace. If not burned, it will appear on the river with probability 1/42. The combined probability is...

0*(2/44) + (1/42)*(42/44) = 1/44

This is the same probability you get without considering burned cards.

Now one could argue that the Ace was less likely to be folded than were the other missing cards. Without going into the math, the probability of an Ace on the river is then somewhat less than 1/44.

But, the real question is, how likely would an opponent hold pocket Kings? If he raised pre-flop on the gun, give him partial credit. However, I'd never be scared off a set of Aces no matter what my assessment of his hole cards.