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#61
03-11-2005, 07:20 PM
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Re: A simple situation I hate being in
[ QUOTE ]
Jason, I think that river call is easy versus an unknown. I think alot of people would even say to bet the river, and some would even say call a raise. I prefer c/call or bet/fold to a raise. And against an unknown, where I really want to showdown, I lean toward c/call. gm [/ QUOTE ] What line would you have taken throughout? (Ignore preflop.) 
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#62
03-11-2005, 07:27 PM
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Re: A simple situation I hate being in
[ QUOTE ]
What line would you have taken throughout? (Ignore preflop.) [/ QUOTE ] Same as you; I just would have called the river. I think there is also merit to betting the river, but I really don't like calling a raise, and I want to see a showdown. I can't tell you how often I get paid off by unknowns in situations like this when I call down. The combined chance that he 3bet something like KT or is bluffing/semi-bluffing makes calling down easily correct, IMO. gm
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#64
03-11-2005, 07:45 PM
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Re: A simple situation I hate being in
I'm still wrestling with the concept of checking this turn. Given that he raised pre-flop from MP3 and three bet a ragged, rainbow flop I'd easily put him either
a)overcards - which you beat, b)xT - which you beat or split, c)overpairs - which you have three outs to, d)a set of tens - you're screwed, or even e)a total desperation bluff on something like A2 (he is unknown) I have a hard time putting him on two pair or a GSD like 78 since he raised pre-flop. I think that since he's not likely to have two pair here that a turn bet is the easy line so that I can charge him for overcard and xT draws while gaining info about whether he has a set or overpairs. where I am wrong here?
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#65
03-11-2005, 07:49 PM
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Re: A simple situation I hate being in
[ QUOTE ]
Why do you prefer this line? (Ignore river.) [/ QUOTE ] As opposed to what? PF is raise, but we're ignoring that. Flop is between c/r and bet -- I think arguments can be made for both. Had the turn been blank, an argument for a c/fold right there could be made, but I still favor calling down for the reasons in my last post. This case is closer though. Once the turn is called, the river is an easy call, for the same reasons that I like calling down (up against KT, another AT, or a bluff). But now your odds are twice as good. Note that you cannot argue, "I would have folded the turn if not for my flush draw, so since I missed, I should fold the river," because your effective odds have changed dramatically. gm
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#67
03-11-2005, 07:57 PM
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Re: A simple situation I hate being in
[ QUOTE ]
I think that since he's not likely to have two pair here that a turn bet is the easy line so that I can charge him for overcard and xT draws while gaining info about whether he has a set or overpairs. where I am wrong here? [/ QUOTE ] It boils down to not being so worried about "charging" the overcards. I believe that you are more likely to be behind than ahead, but likely enough to be ahead that calling down is right. So the times you actually are ahead, and you give him a free card, you have cost yourself something like .88BB. When you are behind, you are going to cost yourself almost 2BB, or else fold to his raise, in which case you will sometimes cost yourself the pot (the times he's bluffing). So I think the possibility of losing a bet on the turn is the least of all possible evils.
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#68
03-11-2005, 07:59 PM
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Re: A simple situation I hate being in
[ QUOTE ]
A lot of people have been suggesting a check/call, check/call, bet/fold line. [/ QUOTE ] Oh, yeah. I said in one of my previous posts that I think there merit to that, that it may even be slighly more +EV, but I prefer to see a showdown against an unknown. That line is a little ballsier than mine. My line protects you against the truly out-of-line unknown. In the end, I think they're pretty close.
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#69
03-11-2005, 08:27 PM
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Re: A simple situation I hate being in
I don't even want to read the other responses before chiming in here that folding the river is crazy. I might get confused by the groupthink.
His preflop raise came from MP3, which suggests it's a weak raise -- and it's 2/4. His 3 bet of your checkraise, in the context of stealing, promises no more than a ten. And even that promise is suspect. It's a shorthanded pot, and you have top pair top kicker. I can't see you being beaten more than 90% of the time.
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#70
03-11-2005, 08:54 PM
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Re: A simple situation I hate being in
I am late to this thread, and I've read the whole thing so I may be influenced by the other responses.
I will raise this pre-flop in the vast majority of circumstances. ATs is a very strong hand and I'd like to fold out a number of hands that are good enough to limp behind a limp (or raise behind a limp) but not good enough to coldcall a raise. If I had raised pre-flop and Villain had 3-bet, I'd take the check / check / bet line as this board developed. If I had raised pre-flop and Villain had cold-called, I would bet the flop, call a raise and then finish check / bet, or bet the flop, if called bet the turn, and bet the river -- if raised anywhere I would call down. If Villain folded the flop or turn to my bet I would not be unhappy. As you played it, I'd probably call down after the flop 3-bet but would be thinking to myself that a better player would fold the river after my flush doesn't appear (but wouldn't be sure that a better player really would fold the river).
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