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#11
03-11-2005, 02:34 PM
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Re: Playing Queens when overcard hits
[ QUOTE ]
Raise the Turn in general in these situations, but especially here as you have 8-10 outs vs. an Ace. Turn bets like these into the pre-Flop raiser are often bluffs or semi-bluffs. [/ QUOTE ] Often (semi-)bluffs? I think I see it occasionally, but not often. I've been known to be wrong before though [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] If hero is behind on turn: raise/fold costs 1BB; call, fold UI on river costs 1BB but gives you a chance to improve. If hero is ahead: raise, villain folds wins 1BB; raise, villain calls wins 3-4BB (depending if river is called); call, call/bet/raise wins 2-4BB. It seems that hero is behind more often than ahead in this situation (i.e. villain bluffs or semi-bluffs < 50% of the time) so calling the turn would maximize expectation. What am I not considering? 
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#12
03-11-2005, 03:09 PM
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Re: Playing Queens when overcard hits
Based on preflop action I would put villain on AK. I would cap preflop AK, but most will only cap preflop with AA-JJ. The check call on the flop says "overcards". It's tough to give this up as you also have a double belly buster draw on the turn. About 8.5 outs after discounting the clubs. You played it just fine.
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#13
03-11-2005, 03:36 PM
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Re: Playing Queens when overcard hits
[ QUOTE ]
I don't understand why he would raise the turn. We are discussing his turn decision in terms of the fact that he is most likely against an A, or most likely behind. Therefore, it appears that he is drawing at about 3.5:1. Given the fact that he is drawing, he is getting 7.5:1 on the call, and very good implied odds if he his on the river because UTG may very well bet into him again. A raise seems like a spew here, as you are asking the SB to exit the pot and the UTG to look for a free showdown, something you don't want if you hit your hand. [/ QUOTE ] This is a very good point. You are not ahead often enough to raise for value, and losing SB really does nothing. But if you make your hand you raise or go for the overcall and pick up 2-3 extra BB's. Nice hand.
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#14
03-11-2005, 03:45 PM
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Re: Playing Queens when overcard hits
If a Q comes it puts 4 to a straight out there so if someone has a K or 9 he looses. If Kc comes it puts 3 to a flush.
If he is up against solid players he is in very bad shape. I dont think he has 8.5 outs, more like 6. I would call this though because you never know...
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#15
03-11-2005, 06:13 PM
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Re: Playing Queens when overcard hits
[ QUOTE ]
What am I not considering? [/ QUOTE ] The fact that the pot is 3 ways and you shouldn't let the SB see the River for 1 bet. As I said in my original post, I think calling down is fine if you are heads-up. -Brian [EDIT]: Hmm, actually, looks like I didn't say that in my original post. I meant to though. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]
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#16
03-11-2005, 06:43 PM
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Re: Playing Queens when overcard hits
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] What am I not considering? [/ QUOTE ] The fact that the pot is 3 ways and you shouldn't let the SB see the River for 1 bet. As I said in my original post, I think calling down is fine if you are heads-up. -Brian [EDIT]: Hmm, actually, looks like I didn't say that in my original post. I meant to though. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img] [/ QUOTE ] Why are you so worried about SB?
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